System idea for baseball

[keel44]

ATTEMPT #20-2: Cardinals -1.5 with Rockies -1.5 $19.68 to win $62.14

That is it. Hopefully I will win one today and tomorrow. Then my chase will be complete.

[keel44]

ATTEMPT #20-2: Cardinals -1.5 with Rockies -1.5 $19.68 to win $62.14

One more to go. If I don't win, my wager amount going forward will be $6.37

[keel44]

I'm not liking the games today for my attempt #3. I will continue a couple 1st attempts.


ATTEMPT #24: Cardinals -1.5 with Rangers -1.5 $6.37 to win $19.13
ATTEMPT #25: Dodgers with Reds -1.5 $6.37 to win $19.75

[dejong77]

personally i would stay as far away from any parlay that got 2 -1,5 picks. It hard enough to hit those RL with normal straight plays.

but i wonder why you take Rangers -1,5 while they are on there worst streak since a while?

[keel44]

ATTEMPT #24: Cardinals -1.5 with Rangers -1.5 $6.37 to win $19.13
ATTEMPT #25: Dodgers with Reds -1.5 $6.37 to win $19.75

These lost. If I need to continue my chase, my new wager amount will be $6.64

[keel44]

personally i would stay as far away from any parlay that got 2 -1,5 picks. It hard enough to hit those RL with normal straight plays.

but i wonder why you take Rangers -1,5 while they are on there worst streak since a while?

You are right. I was going to make that wager for my 3rd attempt, but I stayed away because of the Ranger's struggles.

My overall straight up record is 15 - 36 (29.4%). I should get to 45-48% eventually. Will this money management strategy last that long?

[dejong77]

well the money management is okay. With $5, $6 bets on a 1200 bankrole you are pretty conservative. you can be 20 units down which only cost $100-120.

Good to see you won most loses back. And on a 2 team -1,5. If cards win they win big and rockies are winning slightly more games by 2 runs or more. But this should also be the point to take it back to the drawing board now the loses aren't still that big.

just looking at the plain parley record of 3-25. And your straight record. Maybe take a good look at your pick selection. There is a reason why the odds are so high, because the chance they hit is less then 33,3%. So the book doesn't have to worry when your straight picks are at 29,4% and you only hit 10% on the parley's

Would look specific at the hitrate of the rl picks. because they can get your average down pretty quick.

[keel44]

well the money management is okay. With $5, $6 bets on a 1200 bankrole you are pretty conservative. you can be 20 units down which only cost $100-120.

Good to see you won most loses back. And on a 2 team -1,5. If cards win they win big and rockies are winning slightly more games by 2 runs or more. But this should also be the point to take it back to the drawing board now the loses aren't still that big.

just looking at the plain parley record of 3-25. And your straight record. Maybe take a good look at your pick selection. There is a reason why the odds are so high, because the chance they hit is less then 33,3%. So the book doesn't have to worry when your straight picks are at 29,4% and you only hit 10% on the parley's

Would look specific at the hitrate of the rl picks. because they can get your average down pretty quick.

You make some good points. I want you to realize this is a chase strategy. I am "chasing" the "press" of 3 parlays in a row. It actually doesn't have to be in a row exactly. I can play multiple attempts at once.

The bets start small and increase slightly as those losses add up. My completed chase wins at the very least 48 times my initial risk amount. This gives me a lot of chances to do it. I am bound to get hot enough just a little bit to complete one by the time my bankroll runs out. I am (1) parlay win away from completion with a little more than $200 profit, and I have been ice cold lately.

The customization of what I am doing is wonderful as well. I am always thinking of what would be the best tactic. Right now, I think what I have got here is the best. I just have SO many chances.

As for pick selection, I am not trying to grind out profits like you do with straight bets. I need to choose what should logically win that particular game. I am really not looking at value, just head to head matching up. Maybe that is a vague description, but I have not lost a parlay yet because of the -1.5 line. I look for an offensive explosion when I do choose -1.5.

[keel44]

ATTEMPT #20-3: Cardinals with Angels with Blue Jays $81.82 to win $245.95
ATTEMPT #26: White Sox with Tigers -1.5 $6.64 to win $19.98

[keel44]

ATTEMPT #20-3: Cardinals with Angels with Blue Jays $81.82 to win $245.95
ATTEMPT #26: White Sox with Tigers -1.5 $6.64 to win $19.98

Yes sir, I have completed my chase-press thingy. I also have another attempt at stage 2.

Starting Bankroll $1200
Current Bankroll $1429.09 ($19.98 pending)
Parlay Record: 5-24 (17.24%)
Straight-up Record: 20-36 (35.7%)

I started out 9-28 straight up. I finished 11-8. You see, just a little heating up can make a parlay winner. With a little luck, you can pair up 2 games with a mediocre straight up record. I will finish out attempt #26 going for $200, but I will start again trying for $300.

[keel44]

ATTEMPT #26-2: Blue Jays -1.5 with Red Sox game 1 $19.98 to win $60.01

[tavesims]

You are much better off doing a simple labby with a good capper or using John Morrisons system picks. Otherwise you better get better at picking winners ASAP.
GL

[amarius87]

I really like this idea. parlays are freaking brutal though. i tried 2 team parlays and got smoked. went like 5-30. Ill be keeping a eye on this thread and congrats on that first win!

[keel44]

I really like this idea. parlays are freaking brutal though. i tried 2 team parlays and got smoked. went like 5-30. Ill be keeping a eye on this thread and congrats on that first win!

I think my strategy can handle a 5-30 stretch. I figure to be 22-25% with the parlays I do. Right now, I am at 20%.

Keep in mind this strategy can be used with straight bets as well, with various amounts of pressing and chasing. Customize it to what you like to do. Maybe I'll post on here some other variations, someday.

[keel44]

ATTEMPT #26-2: Blue Jays -1.5 with Red Sox game 1 $19.98 to win $60.01

I am now 6-24 (20%) all parlays

[KierenRaj]

Been keeping an eye on this thread since day 1. Havent placed any bets yet though until I find see there is consistency. But looks like you're hitting some of these bets. I might start testing it out on a small scale. But good idea and for following up on this Keel, hope its a success.

[keel44]

Been keeping an eye on this thread since day 1. Havent placed any bets yet though until I find see there is consistency. But looks like you're hitting some of these bets. I might start testing it out on a small scale. But good idea and for following up on this Keel, hope its a success.

I started so cold, it looked like a dud of a system. I knew when I would heat up to normal, I would get a hit. Thanks for following

[Yazworm91]

Be patient with this 3rd parlay. Heck both games don't even have to be on the same day. Good luck!!

[keel44]

ATTEMPT #26-3: Marlins with Blue Jays -1.5 $79.99 to win $349.16


I don't like betting on the lowly Marlins, but I like this spot too much.

[keel44]

ATTEMPT #26-3: Marlins with Blue Jays -1.5 $79.99 to win $349.16

This lost. It was a tough one too. Marlins should've came through.

[keel44]

I have developed another pressing chase strategy that I will try next. I will post it here on this thread. I will give the outline in the next post.

I like the strategy I have just completed, but I will experiment with something else now. I am confident in its principles. Hey, the more weapons at your disposal, the better.

[keel44]

KEEL'S 6-BLOCK STRATEGY

This strategy will be a press of 6 games with a recouping of your initial wager amount.

In order to determine how much you want to profit after a completed chase, you must determine a MAX odds you are willing to lay on a game and calculate the very LEAST you will profit. For me, I will not bet on a game higher than -200. Using these parameters, I will profit 3.795 times my initial wager amount. It will probably be much higher as I don't expect to wager on -200 games every single event.

I will go about this by running 6 of these chases at the same time -- a block of 6. Remember, the "pressing" does not start until after the first game is won. Then I start the press with only the winnings. I recoup the initial risk.

I will play out the entire block of 6 until they all fall by the wayside or 1 or more win. I will not start another string when one dies. When the smoke clears, I am going to calculate my net losses. I will add in the losses to each attempt of the next block of 6. If it is a net gain, I will simply just repeat with my profit target amount. Let's see an outline:

Attempt #1 (Reds -180) .............
Attempt #2 (Tigers -165)............
Attempt #3 (Cubs +135)................
Attempt #4 (Red Sox -200)............
Attempt #5 (Yankees -145)...............
Attempt #6 (Rangers -1.5 +110).................

Each of these 6 attempts has its own profit target of let's say $100. I take $100 divide by 3.795. That equals $26.35. Each of these games will be risked at $26.35. Remember I am assuming all bets are going to be -200 MAX. If it is lower -- then great, it will be added profit potential.

I play all of these attempts until they all fail or 1 or more succeed in winning 6 in a row. Then and only then do I add in the losses. I will not add more attempts when one dies. Net losses will be added to each of the next block of 6.

The power of this strategy is that if I win the 1st game, I basically get a free shot at pressing 5 more games with up to -200 odds. Also, the losses are not added until 6 attempts go by the wayside. Plus, if I get hot, I could break even on say 4 attempts and actually win the other 2 for bigger profits.

If this sounds complicated, you can see it in action for better illustration.

[shopbar picks]

I like it

[keel44]

Starting Bankroll: $1409.12


*Each attempt will have a profit minimum of $75.90

ATTEMPT #1-A (Nationals -168) $20 to win $11.90
ATTEMPT #2-A (Pirates +1.5 -140) $20 to win $14.29
ATTEMPT #3-A (Braves -190) $20 to win $10.53
ATTEMPT #4-A (Giants -172) $20 to win $11.63
ATTEMPT #5-A (Padres -130) $20 to win $15.38
ATTEMPT #6-A (Cubs +1.5 -140) $20 to win $14.29

[keel44]

I made a rule change about how I will handle losses. I edited the post that gave the outline. You shall see eventually what I will do. Everything will be more clear.

[keel44]

ATTEMPT #1-A (Nationals -168) $20 to win $11.90
ATTEMPT #2-A (Pirates +1.5 -140) $20 to win $14.29
ATTEMPT #3-A (Braves -190) $20 to win $10.53
ATTEMPT #4-A (Giants -172) $20 to win $11.63
ATTEMPT #5-A (Padres -130) $20 to win $15.38
ATTEMPT #6-A (Cubs +1.5 -140) $20 to win $14.29


Giants let one get away. Oh well I was hoping for 4 wins but I'll give it a go with 3.

[keel44]

ATTEMPT #2-B (Royals -135) $14.29 to win $10.59
ATTEMPT #5-B (Angels -155) $15.38 to win $9.92
ATTEMPT #1-B (Tigers Team Total Over 4.5 -105) $11.90 to win $11.33

[keel44]

ATTEMPT #2-B (Royals -135) $14.29 to win $10.59
ATTEMPT #5-B (Angels -155) $15.38 to win $9.92
ATTEMPT #1-B (Tigers Team Total Over 4.5 -105) $11.90 to win $11.33

Tough night. Now I gotta win 4 in a row. Remember a parlay is the same as a press. So it is possible to connect with parlays in one night or two. Just a thought.

[keel44]

ATTEMPT #1-C (Parlay Tigers -174 with Cardinals -174) $23.23 to win $34.37

[keel44]

ATTEMPT #1-C (Parlay Tigers -174 with Cardinals -174) $23.23 to win $34.37

This lost. I now start a new block of 6. I add the losses of $60 to the profit target of $75.90. That equals $135.90. Divide by 3.795. $35.81 will be my starting risk amount for each of the next 6 attempts.

[keel44]

I am done posting on this thread. Thanks for all who followed. I tried 2 strategies. I am happy with them. When I think of something else, I'll start a new thread.