I actualy have a system now!

[2daBank]

Happens quite often in tex, especially when the wind tunnel in effect, no lead really safe and they know that so continue grinding pitchers down and getting into pens. Pretty good strategy to take them live when they down at home and wind blowing in.. Anyway nice day, congrats.. Just had to give u little shit cause never seen some1 so ecstatic bout a hr in Arlington. Lol..

[thilonash]

Can you shine a little insight for me of why you picked mets, astros and padres because I was leaning more on the favoured teams

I dont wanna give away my whole system, but in a nutshell, i dont bet on what teams i think are going to win or lose on any particuluar night, i predict the chance one team has of winning, and if its better than the chances that the books give, i place a bet.

for example, if a casino runs a game where i pay 10 bucks for a roll of a dice. if it comes up 6, i win, if it comes up 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 i lose. Now obviously, in one roll, the chances of me losing are greater than the chances of me winning. However, if they give a moneyline of +800 on 6, im taking the bet. This is because the implied odds of +800 are 11%. This means that if you roll 100 times, you would need to win 11 times (11 out of 100, duh!) to break even. However, the chances of you rolling a 6 are actually 1 out of 6, or 16%. If you roll the dice 100 times, statistics say you would win 16 times out of 100, but if you only needed to win 11 times to break even, those 5 extra times are all profit. Do out the math here, and if i roll 100 times, 10 dollars a roll, ive placed 1,000 dollars worth of bets. However, if i get 80 dollars everytime i win (+800 odds) and i win 16 times, i would have won 1,280 dollars. 1280-1,000 equalls a profit of 280 dollars every 100 rolls.
edit: You would also get your original stake back on the winning bets, so 16*10=160, so you would actually be ahead $440.

therefor, if the real odds of something happening are greater than the betting odds of something happening, take the bet.


yesterday for example:
The marlins were calculated to win 46.74% of the times that they would face arizona assuming both of those starting pitchers played.
The odds given by the books however were only 41.6%. Therefor, even though the marlins have a better chance of losing then winning, overtime they eventually will win, and the payout will cover the loses. Like the example above with the dice, if the odds are in your favor by 5%, after 100 bets chances are that you will be ahead 5%.

Ive just been super lucky to start this on a winningstreak. i fully expect some more losing nights here, but overtime things even out and I should come out ontop. Also, money management is an important part. I started with a bankroll of 50 units, betting in increments of 1, 2, or 3 units. There was a RARE and i do mean RARE 4 unit bet already, but honestly, i predict just 5-10 of those big bets over the course of 1500+ bets. With this system, you shouldnt be betting half your bankroll on one game. Its not a get rich quick scheme, its a slow, profitable grind.

[thilonash]

1 unit bets:
pirates
yankees
braves
astros
cards
nationals.

2 unit bet:
mets

3 unit bet:
arizona

[TO]

I dont wanna give away my whole system, but in a nutshell, i dont bet on what teams i think are going to win or lose on any particuluar night, i predict the chance one team has of winning, and if its better than the chances that the books give, i place a bet.

for example, if a casino runs a game where i pay 10 bucks for a roll of a dice. if it comes up 6, i win, if it comes up 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 i lose. Now obviously, in one roll, the chances of me losing are greater than the chances of me winning. However, if they give a moneyline of +800 on 6, im taking the bet. This is because the implied odds of +800 are 11%. This means that if you roll 100 times, you would need to win 11 times (11 out of 100, duh!) to break even. However, the chances of you rolling a 6 are actually 1 out of 6, or 16%. If you roll the dice 100 times, statistics say you would win 16 times out of 100, but if you only needed to win 11 times to break even, those 5 extra times are all profit. Do out the math here, and if i roll 100 times, 10 dollars a roll, ive placed 1,000 dollars worth of bets. However, if i get 80 dollars everytime i win (+800 odds) and i win 16 times, i would have won 1,280 dollars. 1280-1,000 equalls a profit of 280 dollars every 100 rolls.
edit: You would also get your original stake back on the winning bets, so 16*10=160, so you would actually be ahead $440.

therefor, if the real odds of something happening are greater than the betting odds of something happening, take the bet.


yesterday for example:
The marlins were calculated to win 46.74% of the times that they would face arizona assuming both of those starting pitchers played.
The odds given by the books however were only 41.6%. Therefor, even though the marlins have a better chance of losing then winning, overtime they eventually will win, and the payout will cover the loses. Like the example above with the dice, if the odds are in your favor by 5%, after 100 bets chances are that you will be ahead 5%.

Ive just been super lucky to start this on a winningstreak. i fully expect some more losing nights here, but overtime things even out and I should come out ontop. Also, money management is an important part. I started with a bankroll of 50 units, betting in increments of 1, 2, or 3 units. There was a RARE and i do mean RARE 4 unit bet already, but honestly, i predict just 5-10 of those big bets over the course of 1500+ bets. With this system, you shouldnt be betting half your bankroll on one game. Its not a get rich quick scheme, its a slow, profitable grind.

I respect the time and intergrity you toke to write this for my understandings, thanks for the information and BOL tonight!

[thilonash]

no prob man. Thats what we are all here for, or atleast, should be here for, is to help each other and share thoughts and ideas. I never saw the point in joining a forum and not being helpful to others.

On a sad note, got crushed tonight.

went 3-5, and the 3 games i won were huge favorites, so didnt get much in return. Went -6.14 tonight. ytd is still +10.33


lets hope for a better day of betting tommorow.

[thilonash]

a little late here for anyone to follow my first bet, but here are my plays for today

1 unit:
twins
oriols
angels

2 units:
reds
arizona

3 units:
philie

[thilonash]

ugh, hopefully going positive tonight. I need philie to win, and then i need either baltimore or angels to win to go positive. baltimore and angles look good now with the early lead, and miami find a way to blow it most of the time so fingers crossed hoping for all 3 games to go my way

[thilonash]

alright, good end to the night. getting back on track a little bit at a time, im still + 12.54 for the year.

Reds, oriols, angels, and philies won, lost on twins and arizona. came out +2.21 not anything huge but we are back on track going positive. Tommorow is gonna be a slow day, only 5 games.

[thilonash]

I really need to get ontop of things and start posting these BEFORE the games start haha. anyway:

1 unit on:
cubs
tigers
indians

2.5 units on
angels.


Seriously, I got angels at +114 when I actually have them predicted as the favorite here (54.61% chance tonight).