Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200.
Pirates are 4-9 in their last 13 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
EDGE: CIN
Reds are 4-1 in Cuetos last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Pirates are 1-8 in Lockes last 9 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
EDGE: CIN
Reds are 4-1 in Cuetos last 5 starts as a road favorite.
Pirates are 2-5 in Lockes last 7 starts as an underdog.
EDGE: CIN
Reds are 22-9 in their last 31 games as a road favorite.
Pirates are 5-16 in their last 21 games as an underdog.
EDGE: CIN
Reds are 4-0 in Cuetos last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Pirates are 0-4 in Lockes last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
EDGE: CIN
Reds are 17-6 in their last 23 Saturday games.
Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10 Saturday games.
EDGE: CIN
Reds are 21-8 in their last 29 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
EDGE: NONE
Reds are 1-2 in game 2 of a series this season.
Pirates are 2-1 in game 2 of a series this season.
EDGE: PITTS
Reds are 19-7 in their last 26 games following a loss.
Pirates are 7-19 in their last 26 games following a win.
EDGE: CIN
Reds are averaging 4.7 runs and .235 average in road games.
Pirates are averaging 3.0 runs and .207 in home games.
EDGE: CIN (although you can argue that Pirates' bats are waking up)
Reds bp average is 4.50 ERA and 1.4 WHIP in road games.
Pirates bp average is 3.38 0.563 WHIP in home games.
EDGE: PITTS
Road team is 6-2 in Gibsons last 8 games behind home plate vs. Pittsburgh.
Road team is 8-3 in Gibsons last 11 games behind home plate vs. Cincinnati.
Home team is 19-7 in Gibsons last 26 Saturday games behind home plate.
Pirates are 3-10 in their last 13 games with Gibson behind home plate.
EDGE: Open to interpretation. Gibson appears (to me anyway) to favor the home team yet appears to have a bias against Pittsburgh.
CUETO STATS (last 4)
ERA 2.21
xERA 2.66
WHIP 1.08
FIP 3.63
BABIP .255
xFIP 2.53
LOCKE STATS (last 4)
ERA 6.63
xERA 3.81
WHIP 1.63
FIP 4.72
BABIP .360
xFIP 4.06
The numbers clearly show that Cueto is the better pitcher. However, keep in mind that even the likes of Locke can occasionally have a very solid outing.
Cueto did throw 108 pitches on April 7 but he has had 5 days to rest. And let's not forget that he gave up 3 runs in one inning in his last game. I would like to think this makes him a little more focused - especially with the Pirates' bats heating up.
And there's always Dusty to fukk up a lead. Thankfully, Broxton, LeCure, and Chapman should be well rested and ready to go (I haven't read anything about them being off the roster). And keep in mind that Pirates' closer Jason Grilli pitched yesterday. I think the Red's will have the edge in the bp and closer department today IF IF IF Dusty doesn't suffer from brain farts.
The Reds have lost their last 3 games. I strongly suspect these guys are hungry today.
-160 is an awful lot to pay for a road team and I cannot recommend the money line. Since I had a very nice week, I'm going to protect my profits and go small on Cin -1. I could very well end up pushing (if the Reds win, that is). However, this is just a "fun" small bet for me to keep the capping skills from getting rusty and protect my profits from this past week.
BOL and feel free to post any comments - for or against.
Pirates are 4-9 in their last 13 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
EDGE: CIN
Reds are 4-1 in Cuetos last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Pirates are 1-8 in Lockes last 9 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
EDGE: CIN
Reds are 4-1 in Cuetos last 5 starts as a road favorite.
Pirates are 2-5 in Lockes last 7 starts as an underdog.
EDGE: CIN
Reds are 22-9 in their last 31 games as a road favorite.
Pirates are 5-16 in their last 21 games as an underdog.
EDGE: CIN
Reds are 4-0 in Cuetos last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Pirates are 0-4 in Lockes last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
EDGE: CIN
Reds are 17-6 in their last 23 Saturday games.
Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10 Saturday games.
EDGE: CIN
Reds are 21-8 in their last 29 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
EDGE: NONE
Reds are 1-2 in game 2 of a series this season.
Pirates are 2-1 in game 2 of a series this season.
EDGE: PITTS
Reds are 19-7 in their last 26 games following a loss.
Pirates are 7-19 in their last 26 games following a win.
EDGE: CIN
Reds are averaging 4.7 runs and .235 average in road games.
Pirates are averaging 3.0 runs and .207 in home games.
EDGE: CIN (although you can argue that Pirates' bats are waking up)
Reds bp average is 4.50 ERA and 1.4 WHIP in road games.
Pirates bp average is 3.38 0.563 WHIP in home games.
EDGE: PITTS
Road team is 6-2 in Gibsons last 8 games behind home plate vs. Pittsburgh.
Road team is 8-3 in Gibsons last 11 games behind home plate vs. Cincinnati.
Home team is 19-7 in Gibsons last 26 Saturday games behind home plate.
Pirates are 3-10 in their last 13 games with Gibson behind home plate.
EDGE: Open to interpretation. Gibson appears (to me anyway) to favor the home team yet appears to have a bias against Pittsburgh.
CUETO STATS (last 4)
ERA 2.21
xERA 2.66
WHIP 1.08
FIP 3.63
BABIP .255
xFIP 2.53
LOCKE STATS (last 4)
ERA 6.63
xERA 3.81
WHIP 1.63
FIP 4.72
BABIP .360
xFIP 4.06
The numbers clearly show that Cueto is the better pitcher. However, keep in mind that even the likes of Locke can occasionally have a very solid outing.
Cueto did throw 108 pitches on April 7 but he has had 5 days to rest. And let's not forget that he gave up 3 runs in one inning in his last game. I would like to think this makes him a little more focused - especially with the Pirates' bats heating up.
And there's always Dusty to fukk up a lead. Thankfully, Broxton, LeCure, and Chapman should be well rested and ready to go (I haven't read anything about them being off the roster). And keep in mind that Pirates' closer Jason Grilli pitched yesterday. I think the Red's will have the edge in the bp and closer department today IF IF IF Dusty doesn't suffer from brain farts.
The Reds have lost their last 3 games. I strongly suspect these guys are hungry today.
-160 is an awful lot to pay for a road team and I cannot recommend the money line. Since I had a very nice week, I'm going to protect my profits and go small on Cin -1. I could very well end up pushing (if the Reds win, that is). However, this is just a "fun" small bet for me to keep the capping skills from getting rusty and protect my profits from this past week.
BOL and feel free to post any comments - for or against.