For those of you thinking about the rubber match between Dodgers and Pads, here are some trends and thoughts.
Home team is 4-0 in Holbrooks last 4 games behind home plate vs. San Diego.
Road team is 5-0 in Holbrooks last 5 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
My Take: No real edge here.
Home team is 23-7 in Holbrooks last 30 Thursday games behind home plate.
Padres are 3-14 in their last 17 games with Holbrook behind home plate.
My take: interesting how Holbrooks seems to favor the home team BUT makes an exception for Pads.
Dodgers are 1-6 in their last 7 games with Holbrook behind home plate.
Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 Thursday games with Holbrook behind home plate.
My take: No edge.
Dodgers are 37-16 in their last 53 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Padres are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.
My take: No edge.
Dodgers are 9-4 in their last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Padres are 4-9 in their last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
My take: edge goes to Dodgers
Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Padres are 11-27 in their last 38 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
My take: edge goes to Dodgers
Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
My take: edge goes to Dodgers
Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
My take: edge goes to Dodgers
Padres are 6-2 in Marquis' last 8 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Padres are 2-5 in Marquis' last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Padres are 4-0 in Marquis' last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Padres are 4-1 in Marquis' last 5 starts vs. National League West.
My take: edge goes to Pads.
Situational analysis:
Greinke has never pitched at Petco before. And Mattingly was quoted as saying "We don't feel like he's built all the way up, arm-strength wise, so we'll be a little bit cautious along those lines." Mattingly also noted Greinke will be limited to 105-110 pitches.
So you have to ask yourself: Will Greinke pitch another gem for approximately 6 innings? And do you trust LA's bull pen?
For Marquis, this is familiar and comfortable territory. Besides, what man with a working set of testicles does not want to show up an opponent who signed an obscenely lucrative deal...? And let's not forget that he was somewhat robbed in his last outing in which 3
UNearned runs cost him the possible win.
Personally, I think the current line of -160 and above (depending on the book) is more a reflection on the ***potential*** of Greinke than anything else.
This doesn't mean I'm going to fade Greinke. But I do think he is over priced against a team that almost took one last night in the final inning.
Feel free to leave any comments. I did leave out specific stats on the line up against the respective pitchers because I'm not crazy about either side tonight so I didn't pursue those angles. But if you have any info that sheds further light, be my guest.
Home team is 4-0 in Holbrooks last 4 games behind home plate vs. San Diego.
Road team is 5-0 in Holbrooks last 5 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
My Take: No real edge here.
Home team is 23-7 in Holbrooks last 30 Thursday games behind home plate.
Padres are 3-14 in their last 17 games with Holbrook behind home plate.
My take: interesting how Holbrooks seems to favor the home team BUT makes an exception for Pads.
Dodgers are 1-6 in their last 7 games with Holbrook behind home plate.
Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 Thursday games with Holbrook behind home plate.
My take: No edge.
Dodgers are 37-16 in their last 53 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Padres are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.
My take: No edge.
Dodgers are 9-4 in their last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Padres are 4-9 in their last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
My take: edge goes to Dodgers
Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Padres are 11-27 in their last 38 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
My take: edge goes to Dodgers
Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
My take: edge goes to Dodgers
Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
My take: edge goes to Dodgers
Padres are 6-2 in Marquis' last 8 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Padres are 2-5 in Marquis' last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Padres are 4-0 in Marquis' last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Padres are 4-1 in Marquis' last 5 starts vs. National League West.
My take: edge goes to Pads.
Situational analysis:
Greinke has never pitched at Petco before. And Mattingly was quoted as saying "We don't feel like he's built all the way up, arm-strength wise, so we'll be a little bit cautious along those lines." Mattingly also noted Greinke will be limited to 105-110 pitches.
So you have to ask yourself: Will Greinke pitch another gem for approximately 6 innings? And do you trust LA's bull pen?
For Marquis, this is familiar and comfortable territory. Besides, what man with a working set of testicles does not want to show up an opponent who signed an obscenely lucrative deal...? And let's not forget that he was somewhat robbed in his last outing in which 3
UNearned runs cost him the possible win.
Personally, I think the current line of -160 and above (depending on the book) is more a reflection on the ***potential*** of Greinke than anything else.
This doesn't mean I'm going to fade Greinke. But I do think he is over priced against a team that almost took one last night in the final inning.
Feel free to leave any comments. I did leave out specific stats on the line up against the respective pitchers because I'm not crazy about either side tonight so I didn't pursue those angles. But if you have any info that sheds further light, be my guest.