2013 MLB thread

[EXhoosier10]

It makes sense to pursue a "legal" US market, as the ability to build wealth trumps anything we have reasonable access to in the US regarding sports betting (not to mention tax benefits). However, besides technical differences as the example you gave, it all comes down to what you like to spend your time on.

Have you been playing EX? Post more.

I see your point. At a certain bankroll, one will have to leave the US sportsbetting market for better opportunities with their money.

One of the advantages of trying your hand at the stock market is that, even if you pick blindly, you'll be even (+3 to 7% minus fees) at the end of every year. Betting blindly on sports, you're going to be roughly -2% for every time you go through your bankroll. Make 2 bets a day @ 1% each over the course of the majority of a baseball season and you're going to be -5% if you pick blindly.

[1Time!]

Any thoughts on the SEA/TEX game fellas?

[No coincidences]

Any thoughts on the SEA/TEX game fellas?

I like the M's.

[1Time!]

thanks NC

[No coincidences]

Played Seattle, but didn't get it posted.

[EXhoosier10]

Coin, here's what happens betting on teams with 25 cent movement this year using opening and closing five dime lines. This doesn't account for pitching changes, so take it wiht a grain of salt

Month...Betting Openers...Betting Closers
April…+0.56…-1.44…over 22 games
May…-4.32…-8.32…over 33 games
June…+7.55…+4.69…over 25 games
July…-2.74…-5.50…over 28 games
August…+4.15…+0.32…over 22 games
Total…+5.20…-10.25…over 130 games

I think I can rerun this and hopefully grab if there was a pitching change and get cleaner data.

[No coincidences]

Coin, here's what happens betting on teams with 25 cent movement this year using opening and closing five dime lines. This doesn't account for pitching changes, so take it wiht a grain of salt

Month...Betting Openers...Betting Closers
April…+0.56…-1.44…over 22 games
May…-4.32…-8.32…over 33 games
June…+7.55…+4.69…over 25 games
July…-2.74…-5.50…over 28 games
August…+4.15…+0.32…over 22 games
Total…+5.20…-10.25…over 130 games

I think I can rerun this and hopefully grab if there was a pitching change and get cleaner data.

Interesting. Thanks for the info as usual, Ex.

[No coincidences]

SEA live -110 (2.2U to win 2)

[No coincidences]

SEA live -110 (2.2U to win 2)

What an awful loss -- on a bullshit balk that wasn't a balk. Unreal.

[No coincidences]

SD +108 (2U to win 2.16)

What a night.

First Seattle's bullshit, now this cocktease goes down the drain.

[YouHave2outs]

[EXhoosier10]

Taking into account pitching changes
>= 25 cents
April…+0.56…-1.44…over 22 games
May…-1.4…-5.12…over 31 games
June…+5.6…+3.41…over 21 games
July…-2.89…-4.93…over 23 games
August…+0.47…-2.03…over 17 games
Season…+2.34…-10.11…over 114 games

>= 3%
April…+20.18…+13.84…over 78 games
May…+2.21…-5.97…over 73 games
June…+9…+2.47…over 72 games
July…+4.16…+0.03…over 55 games
August…-5.82…-9.68…over 46 games
Season…+29.73…+0.69…over 324 games

>= 4%
April…+10.19…+7.21…over 29 games
May…-8.54…-13.7…over 35 games
June…-0.59…-3…over 21 games
July…+2.76…-0.39…over 27 games
August…-4.7…-6.73…over 10 games
Season…-0.88…-16.61…over 122 games

[italianbandit]

I liked Cle at +105 but missed the move.

[italianbandit]

This is cool

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

[EXhoosier10]

This is cool

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

I should probably get back to work...

[EXhoosier10]

I should probably get back to work...

emboldened teams are good "value" bets according to FG odds
Team...5d Odds to go to the WS...Odds to Breakeven %....FG odds to make the WS
Los Angeles Dodgers…+155…39.2%...35.7%
Atlanta Braves…+300…25%...20.8%
St. Louis Cardinals…+400…20%...24.3%
Pittsburgh Pirates…+550…15.4%...10.7%
Cincinnati Reds…+650…13.3%...6.5%
Arizona Diamondbacks…+5500…1.8%...0.5%
Washington Nationals…+12500…0.8%...1.5%

Detroit Tigers…+225…30.8%...27.5%
Boston Red Sox…+400…20%...34.3%
Tampa Bay Rays…+450…18.2%...11.8%
Texas Rangers…+450…18.2%...13.9%
Oakland Athletics…+675…12.9%...8.8%
Baltimore Orioles…+1200…7.7%...8%
New York Yankees…+1300…7.1%...7%
Cleveland Indians…+1700…5.6%...2.1%
Kansas City Royals…+4300…2.3%...0.1%

[EXhoosier10]

I should probably get back to work...

emboldened teams are good "value" bets according to FG odds
Team...5d Odds to win the WS...Odds converted to Breakeven %....FG odds to win the WS
Los Angeles Dodgers…+415…19.4%...16.7%
Detroit Tigers…+500…16.7%...16.7%
Atlanta Braves…+700…12.5%...9.9%
Boston Red Sox…+850…10.5%...18.2%
St. Louis Cardinals…+950…9.5%...11.7%
Texas Rangers…+950…9.5%...7.6%
Tampa Bay Rays…+1050…8.7%...5.7%
Pittsburgh Pirates…+1200…7.7%...4.3%
Cincinnati Reds…+1400…6.7%...2.5%
Oakland Athletics…+1500…6.3%...4.1%
Baltimore Orioles…+2500…3.8%...0.3%
New York Yankees…+2800…3.4%...0.3%
Cleveland Indians…+3500…2.8%...1.2%
Kansas City Royals…+12500…0.8%...0%
Arizona Diamondbacks…+13000…0.8%...0.2%
Washington Nationals…+32500…0.3%...0.5%

[EXhoosier10]

Playing
Cubs +1.5 -115 (0.7u)
Cubs +191 (0.3u)

[No coincidences]

CLE -103 (3.09U to win 3)
MIL +140 (2U to win 2.8)
MIA +1.5 +100 (1U to win 1)
MIA +220 (.5U to win 1.1)

[EXhoosier10]

Playing the Mets game under 7.5 for 1.5u

[No coincidences]

LAA +160 (1U to win 1.6)
LAA TT over 3.5 (1.2U to win 1)

[No coincidences]

Playing the Mets game under 7.5 for 1.5u

Good luck, Ex. I need to get back on track today.

Liking Milwaukee at that price tonight a lot.

[EXhoosier10]

only other lean today was Oakland.. 8 lefties in the lineup against scherzer and the fact that they're the A's makes +180 seem a bit high

I'll take a look at night games once lineups come out. YoGa at +150 seems a bit out of line

[No coincidences]

only other lean today was Oakland.. 8 lefties in the lineup against scherzer and the fact that they're the A's makes +180 seem a bit high

I'll take a look at night games once lineups come out. YoGa at +150 seems a bit out of line

I was perplexed by the Oakland line and I feel the same way about Milwaukee. Hard to tell sometimes if books are sending you a message and the line is high for a reason. Guess in Oakland's case, it wasn't. I'm sure a lot of guys got caught chasing Detroit with the "they can't be swept with their 19-1 ace" theory, which is bullshit given the way they're playing right now.

[goduke]

I was perplexed by the Oakland line and I feel the same way about Milwaukee. Hard to tell sometimes if books are sending you a message and the line is high for a reason. Guess in Oakland's case, it wasn't. I'm sure a lot of guys got caught chasing Detroit with the "they can't be swept with their 19-1 ace" theory, which is bullshit given the way they're playing right now.

i definitely was one of this guys chasing Detroit. Luckily tori hunter bailed me out cause for 8 innings I was calling myself an idiot for taking them

[Poppa K]

Me too...Tori is the man of the hour (for me)

i definitely was one of this guys chasing Detroit. Luckily tori hunter bailed me out cause for 8 innings I was calling myself an idiot for taking them

[No coincidences]

Congrats on the DET hits, fellas. That was exciting to say the least.

MIL +155 (1U to win 1.55)
HOU +130 (.5U to win .65)

[curtrambus]

For those of us who don't lay extreme juice we still got buried on the Tigers lol

[No coincidences]

490-513, +42.26U thread

[No coincidences]

Like the O's, Mets, White Sox, Brewers and A's tonight.

[No coincidences]

CHW +1.5 -130 (2.6U to win 2)
CHW +155 (1U to win 1.55)
MIL +115 (2U to win 2.3)
OAK +100 (2U to win 2)
NYM +1.5 -135 (1U to win 1.35)

[hockey216]

I work in large company bookmaker. My job is to accepting (or not) bets above 10,000 EUR I’m in possession of confidential information about sold matches in the coming days. Mostly these are the matches of soccer but I have information about buying of games in tennis, baseball and basket. People who cooperated with me know that this information is expensive however very good. If you are interested in working with me please contact me.
My source of information comes from the biggest bookmakers (Pinnacle, SBOBET, Marathonbet, BetDSI,. etc, etc. ..).

My proposal of fix matches is directed to big players. People playing a few euros please don’t clutter my mailbox.


Today I have information that game in MLB (Philadelphia Phillies – Chicago Cubs) is fix. If you are interested please contact me. Price for information – 250 EUR (330 USD)


*I don't know when mod from SBR forum block me again. No service which is sponsored by bookmakers don't like people who give fix- games.


brian.oshean@aol.com

you post every day about "fixed" games. some sucker might believe you if you only posted once, but when you start saying you have a fixed game every day people know you're a liar and a con artist.

[YouHave2outs]

nocoin

[YouHave2outs]

44 points for your comedy and being the best troll on the site for the last few months. best of luck in the future, seriously.

[italianbandit]

Vogelsong's last 2 performances are a fluke, he has lost 3-4 MPH on his fastball. Bet Ariz FF -.5 +110. I have 2 units on it.