thinking of starting a new system for mlb 2013...whatcya think?

EXhoosier10 · 03-27-13, 06:44 AM

Check out the john morrison thread

wade1 · 03-27-13, 08:30 AM

Nothing new under the sun

myblueeyes91 · 03-27-13, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Check out the john morrison thread

his system is different and that guys a scam

EXhoosier10 · 03-27-13, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by myblueeyes91

hey everyone,
i am new to sbr and im sure this idea has floated around atleast once but still curious as to the upsides and downs of my potential system......

ive done some research on how often home teams are swept...its about 6-12% since 2010 i believe.....

now my system would be a 3-4 game chase(ugh how i hate that word "chase") you would basically bet for the home team to win at least 1/3 or 1/4 of its games in a home series.....i would only select about 2-4 qualifying home teams a week...its sounds to good to be true....or at least right now it does

.....the only thing i hate about this is it would be high risk low reward unit wise

please let me know what you guys think or what previous experiences were like applying this type of home team chase

...Thanks!

you're going to lose

toga toga · 03-27-13, 06:11 PM

You are correct in your assessment of high risk, low return. Just by saying that you know it is not a good idea. In stating that only 6-12% of home teams get swept, other factors around that still exist. If the home team lost their first two games, you are relying on the last game to get you out of a hole to break even, not the best way to make money.

You could probably try a derivative of this system, but I think it would be tough to make a significant profit.

Good luck in whatever manner you elect to go forward.

myblueeyes91 · 03-27-13, 11:50 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

you're going to lose

um ya and ur creditable because....

myblueeyes91 · 03-27-13, 11:56 PM

Originally posted by toga toga

You are correct in your assessment of high risk, low return. Just by saying that you know it is not a good idea. In stating that only 6-12% of home teams get swept, other factors around that still exist. If the home team lost their first two games, you are relying on the last game to get you out of a hole to break even, not the best way to make money.

You could probably try a derivative of this system, but I think it would be tough to make a significant profit.

Good luck in whatever manner you elect to go forward.

thanks for the ONLY educated response to my thread....ive been doing a ton of research and trying to come up with some filters to move that 6-12% to a 3-6%...im still interested if anyone actually tried this before(im sure people have but idk about on sbr) and yes im very scared to do a chase system (going to game 3 or 4) with only a $1,000 bankroll is risky

especially if it would only be to win 2.5% of my roll on each series

El Sol · 03-28-13, 03:16 AM

Your best bet is to concentrate on finding home dogs with decent pitching against America's favorite teams like Boston, Yankees etc. and avoid the chase systems. Less risk and potentially better reward since you'll mostly be betting better than +100. Basically, any system that avoids road favorites is a good one.

Trust us, we've all tried chase systems it at one time or another and you'll soon realize the risk is just to high. Maximizing your reward is only one half of the equation as the other half, albeit the more important half, is reducing your risk by finding the best lines,lowest margin and the greatest edge.

greenhippo · 03-28-13, 03:28 AM

Could be easier on you if you make sure you're not chasing the shit teams like Houston and ChiCubs. Picking the Tigers to win at least one game at home against the Royals? That seems like an almost foregone conclusion right there. Hell judging by matchups it'd be just as well to take the RL so you're not having to chase such high juice.