Heard a lot about baseball betting being easy

[Ashtray]

never bet on baseball before, was wondering if anyone could explain why baseball would be so easy? Are systems especially popular in MLB betting?

[dontparlaymebro]

At then end of football season all you hear is how baseball is easy from those who lost in football and at the end of baseball season you hear how some people can't wait for football to start because they lost everything in baseball... Nothing is easy

[stevenash]

Baseball is easy if you do the hard work.
You must break down every game, pitchers vs. hitters match up, bullpen availability, etc. etc. etc.

[Joe Dogs]

Baseball is a grind,you have to put the time and effort in to secede,I think most guys say its easy because there's no spread involved.

Lots of stats have to be analysed.

[BeatingBaseball]

There are three keys to picking winners in MLB. The problem is - nobody knows what they are.

More seriously - baseball betting is unique. People either love it or hate it. Most football and basketball bettors don't really understand it. Forget systems. In my experience, the only approach that is constructive long term is to come up with a number - your own number for any given team in any given game.

How you get to it is up to you - but for every MLB game there exists an actual, accurate percentage expectation of any team winning any specific matchup. That number, expressed to three decimals, is truth. Anything can happen in any single game - but that number tells you how many games this team would win in 1000 contests between these two teams on this field in full consideration of their relative talents, these two starters, these available bullpens, all current team dynamics and conditions, etc., etc.. Once you have that number, you covert it to a no juice money line and compare your money line for value against all available money lines on that team. (If you can't convert implied win percetange to money lines and vice versa - you need ot learn.)

If you can get 5 or more cents the best of it you have a potential play. If you have 10 cents the best of it you have a better play. That is the only basis upon which to bet a baseball game. The price.

The point is - you can't be a fan. You can't look at a schedule and say I like Verlander today or I'm taking my Dodgers against Lincecum tonight. Beating baseball over the course of a season is all about the price. If the value is not there, you don't bet it. If the value is on the other side, you should be perfectly willing to take the other side.

Truth be told - if you become a good baseball handicapper and you're honest with yourself - your own number will often be very close, sometimes between, the numbers on the board. Thus more often than not, there will be no playable value either way. When you find yourself coming to that conclusion often, you'll know you're getting pretty good at handicapping baseball.

[stevenash]

^
I'll simplify your post.
I look for a + number in a toss up game.
(and if you read my posts last season, you know I do just that)

[LowRollin]

nothing in sports betting is easy, but I would strongly recommend sticking to underdogs when taking a side.

[vrksayy]

Baseball is both the easiest and hardest to cap. 30 or 40 games separate playoff teams from cellar dwellers. It's a game of dogs and starting pitchers, really.

[OMGRandyJackson]

One thing Ive found about baseball, is the long season and 10+ games a day can quickly destroy you. Ive seen people start out really well betting 0-3 games a day say. After a few weeks of being up, they start to get careless, increase unit size and start betting 5+ games a day and all of a sudden their BR is 0.00.

(If you can't convert implied win percetange to money lines and vice versa - you need ot learn.)

Where can I get info on how to do that?

[face]

i used to bet unders in seattle and that was money but not sure now that they moved in the fences. also sometimes overs in arizona are good

[EXhoosier10]

Where can I get info on how to do that?

If you project a team to have a .500 chance of winning a game, what line would you bet that would be profitable long term?

[stevenash]

If you project a team to have a .500 chance of winning a game, what line would you bet that would be profitable long term?

+120 or better

[Ashtray]

some interesting feedback guys, thanks!

[EASports]

Technically its a less difficult sport to win bets in b/c you are only picking winners. Not like other sports with spreads as the primary bets in which you are picking the winner, and their margin of victory.

But, no. In no way is it easy. The most impactful player(pitchers) changes everygame, and sometimes every inning(Bullpens).

[BeatingBaseball]

Another unique characteristic of baseball is one that I think makes it the ultimate team sport. Compared to basketball, football or hockey - there is far less control of who will end up having to execute the big plays in the game, either offensively or defensively.

The lineup is the lineup. The players have to take their ABs in order. Your Miguel Cabrera (unlike your Michael Jordan, Walter Payton or Wayne Gretzky) is only going to get approximately as many opportunities as the weaker players (often less if they walk him in situations). With the exception of the late inning pinch hitter, a baseball manager doesn't have the flexibility to put the game in the hands of his best offensive player at will when the game is on the line.

Same with defensive. The ball goes where it goes. A manager doesn't get to choose his best defender to defend the big play.

[italianbandit]

Baseball betting suits and rewards a more patient and disciplined gambler. If you are impulsive look elsewhere. You'll also want to start learning Sabermetrics and Fan Graphs is a great site to start reading. Start with the definitions and read their posts.

[italianbandit]

Regarding your initial question, no baseball betting is not easier, however its statistical complexities and richness allow for more potential angles to be found to try and exploit.

[brigade125]

made easy money in the first half of the season... then lost it all at the second half of the season...that baseball....

[crackerjack]

I lost my ass in baseball last year. But I had a couple good runs... It's all about streaks in baseball. In my years baseball has been profitable but I dont have the time to invest anymore.