Cincinnati 53% - Buchholz brings his high volatility to the table here, and while he could have one of his shutout performances, he is more likely to have a standard-issue quality start, 6-8 innings, 2-4 runs. Ramirez should have a similar, slightly shorter outing, keeping Cincinnati in the game. If those 2 things happen, Cincinnati will enjoy a slight edge, with a better lineup and an as good or possibly even better bullpen than Houston.
St. Louis 60% - Hill is a pitcher to watch out for, as he has been completely dominant in AAA this year. This is not a great spot for him to come back to the majors, as the Pujols-centered St. Louis lineup could well cause him to unravel again. His likely performance here has a high degree of uncertainty, but it is more likely to be in line with his other major league starts this season. If it is, the Cubs' iffy bullpen will be exposed for a bunch of innings, hurting the Cubs' chances dramatically. Weaver should be able to contain the Cubs' lineup for the most part. If he can keep St. Louis in the game until the bullpens come in, they will be in a good position to win.
St. Louis 60% - Hill is a pitcher to watch out for, as he has been completely dominant in AAA this year. This is not a great spot for him to come back to the majors, as the Pujols-centered St. Louis lineup could well cause him to unravel again. His likely performance here has a high degree of uncertainty, but it is more likely to be in line with his other major league starts this season. If it is, the Cubs' iffy bullpen will be exposed for a bunch of innings, hurting the Cubs' chances dramatically. Weaver should be able to contain the Cubs' lineup for the most part. If he can keep St. Louis in the game until the bullpens come in, they will be in a good position to win.