July 6 Ganchalysis

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  • Ganchrow
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-28-05
    • 5011

    #1
    July 6 Ganchalysis
    Cleveland 51% - Cleveland holds a minor edge here, as Lee has a small likelihood of a better outing than Johnson, and Damon is likely to sit out for the Yankees. Johnson, however, has a greater chance of a dominating start than Lee.

    Philadelphia 58% - San Diego managed to eke out a win yesterday with Peavey, but here with Park they will be at a significant disadvantage. Park has been vulnerable to home runs this year, and he will be especially so in this park. Madson has been an enigma so far. He had a dominating spring, and has had sporadic dominating outings this year mixed in mostly with terrible ones. His last start was very sharp, and here in his last appearance before the break vs the modest San Diego lineup, he may well have another quality start.

    Boston 59% - This game has a very high degree of uncertainty to it, for some very specific reasons. Wakefield has been tremendous in his career indoors, and especially at Tropicana. However, the Boston lineup has not done well on the turf this year, and here they are going up against a very effective young starter who will likely give them a lot of trouble. Adding to the uncertainty is that Wakefield's last dome start this year was not dominant, and Shields does not go deep into games, which will expose Tampa Bay's middling pen to the Boston lineup for at least a couple of innings.

    Mets 57% - This is a dangerous spot for the Mets. While they enjoy a solid edge with their lineup and bullpen, Trachsel has many question marks and concerns about him. Gorzelanny, on the other hand, has many very good signs around him right now. Trachsel might have a slight injury, and his recent outings have not been good, despite the fact that the Mets have won 5 games he has started in a row. Gorzelanny had an effective outing vs a strong offense in his first start of the year, and should keep Pittsburgh close as long as he is in the game.
  • bigboydan
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 08-10-05
    • 55420

    #2
    anything on that halo's/A's game yet ganchrow.

    i'm leaning toward the A's in this game myself.
    Comment
    • ganchrow
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-28-05
      • 5011

      #3
      White Sox 71% - There's no telling what this game could wind up looking like. Suffice it to say, Ortiz vs the White Sox' lineup is one of the most lopsided matchups possible in baseball. Vazquez himself might be a future Ortiz in the making, as his vulnerability to getting crushed is well-established. Ultimately, this game could wind up looking like the 20-6 game Vazquez started a few weeks ago. The White Sox have a sizable edge in any high-scoring home game.

      Milwaukee 69% - Capuano's last start was troubling. He was having difficulty locating his pitches, and it's not inconceivable that all the attention surrounding him and his possible All-Star status is distracting him. Still, he is likely to bounce back here vs the still weak Cubs' lineup, and if he does, Milwaukee will have a big edge. Milwaukee's pen has been iffy of late, but if Capuano has a strong outing, that will not factor in here.
      Comment
      • ganchrow
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-28-05
        • 5011

        #4
        Angels 54% - This game matches up a starter with modestly above-average prospects for this game, against an offense with similar prospects, in Escobar vs Oakland. It also matches up a starter with below-average prospects against a lineup of a similar standing in Loaiza vs the Angels' lineup. This creates an unsteady balance for the game which gives it a low confidence factor. Both pens will be capable of preserving any lead they are charged with.
        Comment
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