This MIL/WAS game is proof that betting totals is just stupid

[No coincidences]

Gomez loses a routine fly ball in the sun in center that leads to 5 extra runs with two outs. Goes from 2-1 to 7-1.

Total opened at 8 and closed with heavy juice on the over at 7.5.

[rumnblack]

You mean betting unders right?

[No coincidences]

You mean betting unders right?

Just totals in general. Crapshoot. You can't cap shit like that.

[TheDarkPassenger]

Have the over in this game. Worked out for me.

[No coincidences]

Have the over in this game. Worked out for me.

What made you take the over?

[PAULYPOKER]

Public was all over the under,

books bet on the over by making the over less attractive to the public,(Juiced the fukk outta it)

this happens just about everyday,

nuthin new....................

[HoulihansTX]

Public was all over the under,

books bet on the over by making the over less attractive to the public,(Juiced the fukk outta it)

this happens just about everyday,

nuthin new....................

[Rone247]

Great point No Coin. I have learned the hard way with totals. Give me the task of just picking the winner any day.

[lunchbawks]

day baseball balls get lost in the sun

its not rocket science this benefits the offense

[No coincidences]

Public was all over the under,

books bet on the over by making the over less attractive to the public,(Juiced the fukk outta it)

this happens just about everyday,

nuthin new....................

Once again, Pauly posting something with zero proof.

[shift_knob]

always get screwed on totals, i learned to just play small on them and just try to pick winners

[No coincidences]

Totals typically don't drop like this (at Pinny) without significant sharp money on the under. I have no dog in this fight; just happened to see Dexter on it and it was the right side.

09/24 09:10 AM	7½ +105	7½ -116
09/24 09:08 AM	8 +120	8 -133

[PAULYPOKER]

09/24 01:03 pm	7½ +109 42%	7½ -119 58%
09/24 12:57 pm	7½ +110 42%	7½ -120 58%
09/24 12:57 pm	7½ +115 42%	7½ -125 58%
09/24 11:40 am	7½ +100 39%	7½ -110 61%

[PAULYPOKER]

09:10 am	7½ +103 35%	7½ -113 65%
09/24 09:04 am	7½ -105 33%	7½ -105 67%
09/24 08:39 am	8 +107 33%	8 -117 67%

[No coincidences]

Where are you getting those numbers?

First of all, the "public" isn't going to be "all over" any total for a day baseball game. Second, 42% -- even if that is accurate -- isn't "all over" anything.

Every site I saw had the numbers pretty much 50/50. Are you going to argue with me that the 5 extra runs Washington scored in that inning weren't a fluke?

[PAULYPOKER]

TOP TEN BETS
TODAY'S GAMES

1	Green Bay Packers	POINT SPREAD
2	Green Bay Packers	MONEY LINE
3	Seattle Seahawks	POINT SPREAD
4	Milwaukee Brewers	MONEY LINE
5	Green Bay Packers	OVER
6	Washington Nationals	MONEY LINE
7	Baltimore Orioles	MONEY LINE
8	Seattle Seahawks	MONEY LINE
9	Seattle Seahawks	UNDER
10	Washington Nationals	UNDER

[No coincidences]

TOP TEN BETS
TODAY'S GAMES

1	Green Bay Packers	POINT SPREAD
2	Green Bay Packers	MONEY LINE
3	Seattle Seahawks	POINT SPREAD
4	Milwaukee Brewers	MONEY LINE
5	Green Bay Packers	OVER
6	Washington Nationals	MONEY LINE
7	Baltimore Orioles	MONEY LINE
8	Seattle Seahawks	MONEY LINE
9	Seattle Seahawks	UNDER
10	Washington Nationals	UNDER

Given it's the only 1 p.m. game going on, where did you expect it to rank? No one from the "public" bets mid-day totals Pauly. You know that. The public wasn't "all over" the under.

[Jago2008]

I'd say in this instance No Coin, check previous game logs, and split stats with the pitcher. If you look at Zimmerman's last few starts he's given you strong innings against teams like LAD, and NYM, teams that have averaged around 2.9 RPG since the All Star Break (cumulatively), with NY having a lower avg. at home. When facing better offensive clubs, over the 4 mark, the games change substantially (9-10 L vs. STL, 1-6 vs. SFo - who believe it or not are avg'ing close to 5 runs per game since the All star break) Furthermore Zimmerman has received at least 5.2 runs avg. in his last 10 starts... Also a day game in Was. where this club just hammers the ball out as a continuing trend all year and you've got a good chance statistically at hitting the over just on that knowledge alone. Add the fact we had some wind blowing out WNW @ 10-13 miles an hour on a nice day should lead to this conclusion. I just have certain things you can create a model around, these are just a few, but totals can be maddening or extremely profitable, but generally both if you can capp things in a manner which shows statistical trends in your favor.

[underal]

Gomez loses a routine fly ball in the sun in center that leads to 5 extra runs with two outs. Goes from 2-1 to 7-1.

Total opened at 8 and closed with heavy juice on the over at 7.5.

you could just have easily said that betting sides is stupid as mil backers were also burned. The real lesson here is that betting big is stupid. grinding out value plays is the only way to go.

[rdegk15]

The sun was brutal. I don't blame Gomez at all.



Try catching a ball looking at that.

[ridims]

Gomez loses a routine fly ball in the sun in center that leads to 5 extra runs with two outs. Goes from 2-1 to 7-1.

Total opened at 8 and closed with heavy juice on the over at 7.5.

If Gomez catches that ball the game has a good chance for an under. Routine fly ball turns into a massacre.

Maybe the books knew that the sun had a play on todays game.

LOL

Guys, this game was not predicted before it started. You can't predict everything that can happen in a ball game. Reading into lines will not confirm anything. No one can predict this day in and day out.

So stop trying to determine what the correct bet was before the game started.

[ridims]

ok so factor in the sun for 0.5+ points to the total. no, maybe 2+ points.

take the sun in effect when you cap your ball games fellas.

The sun was brutal. I don't blame Gomez at all.



Try catching a ball looking at that.

[Mantle7]

I just took the Nats ML but I was considering taking the Under. No offense, nocoin but this one game doesn't prove anything. I've noticed in Baseball.when a team makes an error the opposing team makes them pay heavily. Routine DP ball gets kicked which should have been the 3rd out ends up being a 3 run bomb.

There's value in betting totals but this was a case of a Error OPENING UP THE GATES and you can't account for things like that.

[Jago2008]

I just took the Nats ML but I was considering taking the Under. No offense, nocoin but this one game doesn't prove anything. I've noticed in Baseball.when a team makes an error the opposing team makes them pay heavily. Routine DP ball gets kicked which should have been the 3rd out ends up being a 3 run bomb.

There's value in betting totals but this was a case of a Error OPENING UP THE GATES and you can't account for things like that.

Well said, but errors are something that can add statistical value aswell, as well as fielding percentage.

[Mantle7]

Yah, you're right. Milwaukee isn't known to be a bad defensive team like Detroit. I worded that wrong. Errors can and should be considered in totals if the team is known to be bad defensively.

[yisman]

Totals typically don't drop like this (at Pinny) without significant sharp money on the under. I have no dog in this fight; just happened to see Dexter on it and it was the right side.

09/24 09:10 AM	7½ +105	7½ -116
09/24 09:08 AM	8 +120	8 -133

I don't think it was the right side. 14 runs scored. You can remove that half inning entirely and the same still hits 8.

[Mantle7]

I don't think it was the right side. 14 runs scored. You can remove that half inning entirely and the same still hits 8.

Yah, but it's harder to score in tight games. Players are loose at the plate with a huge lead. Certain pitchers wouldn't have been brought in. Nats usually put up a 4 or 5 spot.

[Jago2008]

Yah, you're right. Milwaukee isn't known to be a bad defensive team like Detroit. I worded that wrong. Errors can and should be considered in totals if the team is known to be bad defensively.

What you said is right, I was just adding to your point. GL on your bets.

[Mantle7]

Thanks, Buddy! You too

[tatddy]

I play mostly totals. Just because something doesn't work out for you doesn't make it useless. To each his/her own bud.

[No coincidences]

Look at the MIL/CIN total tonight.

I saw my man LT Profits was on the under.

7-1 with two outs in the ninth and a home run makes it go over.

I know he killed the closer on the number too, and the public was on the over.

Crapshoot.

[lunchbawks]

LT Profits is proof that totals are not a crapshoot// he bets mostly totals and is 30 games over .500

nocoin it feels like you only bet unders.. sometimes overs are the way to go.. Coors field overs are FREE MONEY

[No coincidences]

Now we move on to LT's second play -- SF/ARI under 6.5.

Looking great until Saito comes in for mop up duty and uncorks a bunch of wild pitches. Can't throw a strike to save his life. Giants are probably going to win 7-0.

Two total bullshit losses for LT.

[No coincidences]

LT Profits is proof that totals are not a crapshoot// he bets mostly totals and is 30 games over .500

nocoin it feels like you only bet unders.. sometimes overs are the way to go.. Coors field overs are FREE MONEY

I'm not betting totals -- just noticed these two tonight that he had pegged if not for stupid meaningless shit late.

[No coincidences]

LT bets mostly unders as well lunch.