Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**KVB** · 03-11-17, 08:37 PM

Pac 12

The sharp forecast has Oregon beating Arizona 75-72. The public gauge says Arizona wins 70-69.

The last game of the night gives us a difficult test. This time the line has opened near the forecast at Oregon -2.5 and has moved toward the gauge to -2. More importantly, I think this represents the first time there has been a moneyline split between these numbers and the forecast is not calling for the upset.

Only two favorites have covered in the Pac 12 tournament so far. Those teams were Oregon and Arizona.

But let’s get back to the line.

It’s the final game of the night and of the Pac 12 tourney. The forecasts have been getting paid on upset moneylines on a very high rate. I mentioned after the first set of forecast results that the 33% success calling upsets by the forecast is in line and there really is little variance. Really, all year long, in many sports, very little variance of short or long term. I use moving averages and snapshots in different intervals to attest to it.

They are hitting at over 50% for these conferences and just below for the rest of the league in general.

Has the market, not by way not of the bettors, but the originators, caught up? Would this line have been Zona -1 earlier in the tournament?

If the bettors caught up, we would see Zona -1 shift across the line to Oregon. I believe the answer could be Oregon here as the market wasn’t going to pay out another sharp upset against the opener.

The money has been fairly split here but if, when, and as the line falls the public will read it as sharp and pick up the steam.

I may be looking to counter that steam with Oregon.

**KVB** · 03-11-17, 08:39 PM

**dfish** · 03-11-17, 08:50 PM

always a good read , the music is a bonus

**omedo** · 03-11-17, 08:52 PM

Originally posted by KVB

In the begining of the series i thought that Kramer was stupid person, a very big one. But the more episodes i saw i came to realize that the stupid was me for thinking that. Life is a circle and full of lessons for those that want to learn!

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 03-11-17, 10:00 PM

**KVB** · 03-11-17, 10:14 PM

Originally posted by KVB

ACC

The sharp forecast says Notre Dame beats Duke 73-69. The public gauge has Duke winning 77-75...

I just may press the forecast here with Notre Dame. We have a lot of time and I don’t think the line will drop, but given the forecast it very well could...

Fuk. I had this game starting at 7:00. I saw the conflict with another schedule but didn't fix it in my book. I stepped out thinking I had a break.

I missed the tip here by a whole half.

I still like Dame to cover and +5 or better live is a good bet.

**KVB** · 03-11-17, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by KVB

AAC

The sharp forecast says Cincinnati beats UConn 73-58. The public gauge has Cinci winning 68-57...

This is still a tough call because of the spot in the tournament. I am passing for now because we need more data and have more time but know that the money hitting UConn can move a market and means business...

That line opened at Cinci -10.5 dropped to 10 then on to 9. Indeed, the money that moved the market is the only one that got paid. Once the cat got out of the bag, everyone following suit became a loser.

The game ended at 10 points.

The market used some sharps to stir a pot and then proceeded to take down the ensuing pile. Most people would just say "the line was sharp" because the score landed so close, and have no idea what they are talking about. You can't determine the sharpness of the line like that based on score.

Others might say it was sharp because there wasn’t too much movement. The books kept the line high, keeping the carrot of the underdog out there. But in all fairness it did move through 10 to 9 dropping 1.5 points.

What made the line sharp was the book’s use of the line. It wasn’t about splitting money evenly; it was about getting the action that they wanted, where they want it, and even when they wanted it (in terms of rotation order and time of game).

The market knew what type of action to expect and had a plan.

**KVB** · 03-11-17, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Pac 12

The sharp forecast has Oregon beating Arizona 75-72. The public gauge says Arizona wins 70-69...

The money has been fairly split here but if, when, and as the line falls the public will read it as sharp and pick up the steam.

I may be looking to counter that steam with Oregon...

As predicted, the line has fallen from 2 and I have picked up Oregon -1 (-105) and -115 over Arizona.

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 03-11-17, 10:53 PM

**KVB** · 03-11-17, 10:59 PM

Originally posted by dfish

always a good read , the music is a bonus

**KVB** · 03-11-17, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...The last game of the night gives us a difficult test...

...this represents the first time there has been a moneyline split between these numbers and the forecast is not calling for the upset...

The bottom line is that I am going with my forecast here. Market value and expected value are with me and right or wrong I doubt there is anyone in the world who analyzes the sports markets like I do. I have used so many methods to explain different games and showing where you can derive some metrics. How about the teaser analysis to predict the 10 point game?

I put a little something different in each so can you imagine the overwhelming task of using each metric on each game? You don’t really have to because certain metrics apply to certain conditions, but you get what I’m saying.

We started the games this morning and I spoke of money flow beginning. There were far fewer games so money is more concentrated. Close trading losses on two games I bought early when trading aside, I have had some pretty solid analysis as to what the market revealed; mostly because more money flowed through a more narrow channel.

Again, right or wrong, to use the metrics and analysis of the conditions of this marketplace to even write what I wrote about the Pac 12 game…well can you imagine?

So in my entire wisdom let me say that there is a heavy weight on Arizona tonight. Many things depend on them to decide parlays that aren’t about the money the books absorb if the player loses. It becomes about what the book has to pay out if the players win.

Think about it.

**KVB** · 03-11-17, 11:37 PM

Uh oh, ugly game. Bad fouls, bad shots.

Something stinks here.

**KVB** · 03-11-17, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...So in my entire wisdom let me say that there is a heavy weight on Arizona tonight. Many things depend on them to decide parlays that aren’t about the money the books absorb if the player loses. It becomes about what the book has to pay out if the players win...

Let me be clear. It’s not like the books go broke. It’s not like the injury to the Oregon player will end the world. It’s more about where chips fall and how many among even different populations. Parlays being created to predict moneyflow are dangerously good because if any of it is right, it may all be right.

That’s why there’s something I like to call the parlay killer. I wasn’t able to get to that this week but I if you read my analysis of VCU yesterday I pretty much just said that it was what it was because the answer was VCU.

You could say George Mason fell into the “parlay killer” category and just couldn’t get out.

**KVB** · 03-11-17, 11:55 PM

Poor Notre Dame. The pressure of being the second forecast upset of the day, with the first one failing, after a week of such sharp success against the upset was more than they could bear.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 03-12-17, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Uh oh, ugly game. Bad fouls, bad shots.

Something stinks here.

**KVB** · 03-12-17, 02:08 AM

Here are the forecast results using only a half point discrepancy with the market through Saturday…

Against the Spread:
Open: 43-50 (46.24%), Close 48-49 (49.48%)

Against the Moneyline:
Overall 63-31 (67.02%), predicting favorites 54-23 (70.13%), predicting upsets 8-8 (50%), when predicting the upset but the line moves to predicting the favorite 1-0 (Tenn vs. Georgia)

Against the TOTALS:
Open: 59-36 (62.11%), Close 60-39 (60.61%)

The forecast predicting upsets at 50% is a nice clip even if it’s only 16 plays.

Remember, I am using only a half point discrepancy against the market here. The performance against the spread for openers and closers is not the same as whether or not my forecast “beat the closing line” and by how much it does.

I’ll track that for the thread as well.

I am overall happy with these results. These markets have a way being 50-50 and with no discrepancy it really shows ATS.

You have heard that Totals can be softer markets, especially NCAAB Totals. There is evidence in the line movement as well as the results above.

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 03-12-17, 07:07 AM

K.V.B

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 03-12-17, 07:09 AM

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 03-12-17, 07:10 AM

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 03-12-17, 07:12 AM

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 03-12-17, 07:13 AM

bye fags

**smokenjoke** · 03-12-17, 07:55 AM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

bye fags

Bet I cap ya¿

pussyassfidel

**smokenjoke** · 03-12-17, 08:08 AM

To Clint: f\*g

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 03-12-17, 08:16 AM

eww dude , lil f4gg0t

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 03-12-17, 08:18 AM

im pretty good at pool too by the way

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 03-12-17, 08:34 AM

capping contest smokenjoke?
loser leaves the world forever ?
Scared ?

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 03-12-17, 08:38 AM

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**Fidel_CashFlow** · 03-12-17, 08:51 AM

get that ass spanked Smokey

**KVB** · 03-12-17, 11:12 AM

Atl 10

The sharp forecast has Rhode Island beating VCU 71-61. The pubic gauge shows RI winning 69-68.

The line opened a pick and moved to the gauge at RI -1 right away, it then jumped to -2, toward my line. The Total opened between the numbers and has dropped toward the forecast.

We see why the line moved but why did it open so low? The close public line is one reason but I can tell you there is considerable money on the underdog here from both sophisticated and non-sophisticated bettors alike. The line had to open low, from the forecast to help balance this action.

I think it is one sided and the type of action in the line would serve to encourage the dog bettors. I agree with the strong underdog metric here but must also consider the forecast.

When one way of handicapping directs you one way, and another proven way directs you another, it’s best to pass. Money is stacked here, but this isn’t the game to gamble.

Also note that the line moved making the forecast predicted the underdog. After all the results buzz and these two forecasted dogs failing yesterday, there is just too much attention on the moneyline prediction.

It might look like the books seek balance by allowing a low line and such favorite action, taking money from the sharp underdog decision makers, but looks can deceive, it’s a pass as it’s hard to say where the chips will fall.

**DwightShrute** · 03-12-17, 11:19 AM

**KVB** · 03-12-17, 11:21 AM

SEC

The sharp forecast shows Kentucky beating Arkansas 72-71. The public gauge says Kentucky wins 85-78.

The lined opened near the gauge but, despite public tickets on Kentucky, has pressured a little toward my line. The total opened closet to the gauge between the numbers and has dropped several points toward my line.

It looks like it could be Kentucky here based on speculation of the days flow of money from metrics I am looking at.

Unfortunately, this day has a few games and that speculation doesn’t have to be right. Again, I am passing here for now but may consider a Kentucky play before tip.

Let’s see how the early begins to add some analysis and more to those metrics.

**KVB** · 03-12-17, 11:32 AM

Big 10

The sharp forecast as Michigan beating Wisconsin 73-62. The public gauge has Wisky winning 66-64.

This game has similarities to the Atlantic 10 game today and all this noise with the forecast upsets has created attention and now money is heading to the dogs from multiple angles.

It’s impossible to tell without any determining metric which dog in these games cover. In fact, because of the theme today, it’s possible none of them do.

The total should be going up here towards the numbers but the books may be adjusting to sharp money seeking that Under due to performance and constraints in the conference.

The books protecting against these bettors tells me they want that money split.

Again metrics are tantalizing but others put us off of plays here, causing a pass. The numbers in the AAC game help to confirm today’s organization.

**KVB** · 03-12-17, 12:11 PM

AAC

The sharp forecast has SMU beating Cincinnati 70-69. The public gauge Says SMU wins 66-65.

The line opened SMU -2 and we will be seeing it at the numbers with 1 point today. The Total opened low but closer to the public gauge and has dropped. Sure, numbers say the Over should get hit, and it is getting hit, but look at the recent totals performance in this conference, in this tourney.

We are seeing the market adjust to an obvious pressure that comes from decision makers that are using stats not specifically related to the teams. Decision makers like this can fall into (to use terms I’ve written many times) both sharp (sophisticated) and unsophisticated groups.

This pressure and market reaction is being led by both groups. Ordinarily, I would be all over the OVER here but money is set to settle with this game.

Look at it from the forecast perspective. In this conference, the forecast has been successful against the Totals in the last six games and in each game the OVER was predicted. Look at what’s happened to streak riders and streak breakers during that time, both in individual games and game to game. Money with Totals may seem a little more balance overall in the conference, but no so much more recently.

Then look at the fact that there have been 9 games in the AAC so far and 8 of them have been totals. The other game, game #2 on Thursday, was a push against the opener and an UNDER against the close.

You can see the market trying to get an UNDER here and it is glaring. I know there will be an NCAA tournament, but for now this is the final game of this analysis.

I look Under to develop within the some metrics of the markets by tip. Even then, with the overall week being so even keeled, the chips really could fall either way.

In explaining the line movement with the Total I forgot about the side. I may give SMU a 70-69 win here, but SMU is just tenths of points away from this being a tie at everyone’s favorite number, 69, with an SMU edge in the raw score moneyline.

That’s not very far away, tenths of points, but my tracking has been that tight. Every game that has had a tie against the forecast has seen the team with the slight edge in the raw score moneyline succeed.

The contrarian in me adds this to a few reasons and metrics that show Cinci may get this game. But the lines are tight, this is the end of the weekend, it gets no tighter.

As I look, Rhode Island leading big early on a day like today gets us looking closer. A statement being made today, so soon, might make us think there’s a comeback. Misleading money should abound early today.

But alas, it’s the Sicilian with the poison argument again. All week we’ve seen all the market tricks combined with the market mechanics, even if with the benefit of hindsight, and now with the cat out of the bag all the stops get pulled out.

Expect a turn in the first game being played today? Expect Cincinnati and the UNDER in the last game?

At this point in the markets, all you can really expect is the unexpected.

It’s like that with all the major markets, and the NFL manages to pull it off nearly every Sunday of the week.

**KVB** · 03-12-17, 12:12 PM

**KVB** · 03-12-17, 01:24 PM

I talked about parlays being created based on moneyflow. One thing to do before the games begin is to map out what happens if, say RI has a big lead early. Or even to assume a first result and then map from there. Then assume the opposite and make that plan. That way, when the bullets start flying and things don’t go as expected you can see a little bit in that fog of war. Make a roadmap.

Overlapping starts and multiple game start times can make this difficult or probabilistically impossible and even when it is possible, we often see drastic comebacks and OT.

Originally posted by KVB

Big 10

The sharp forecast as Michigan beating Wisconsin 73-62. The public gauge has Wisky winning 66-64...

Again metrics are tantalizing but others put us off of plays here, causing a pass. The numbers in the AAC game help to confirm today’s organization...

Mapping today is difficult but today’s start to the first two games, including the RI fast start and just now as I write VCU already coming as close as they have (I think it is a fake comeback) more of this organization is confirmed.

I know where it is headed and it is headed for a Wisconsin win. Unfortunately, for our purposes of trading with expectation and the problem with the time slots makes this Big 10 game a real pass.

Even if marked in my map, I still make it a pass for the thread. Remember VCU vs. G Mason? Likewise, it sure looks like it's Wisky.

The time slots today help protect that Wisconsin win. Gamblers should consider it.