Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[KVB]

AAC

The sharp forecast has SMU beating UCF 70-65. The public gauge shows SMU winning 68-58.

The line opened closer to the gauge but has moved toward my line a tick. The Total opened at 124.5 and moved toward my line to the gauge. Yesterday the forecast predicted all OVERS in this conference and does it again here. Also, the next game in this conference is forecasts at 131 points, predicting another OVER.

It sure smells like an UNDER, especially with the books having a lower line at the open and taking all the action on the OVER.

I’ll bite for game one (patience?) and take UNDER 126.5 (-105) for UCF vs. SMU.

There is pressure on SMU similar to the Kentucky game and similar to the Notre Dame Florida State game last night. UCLA saw the same pressure but I overlooked it by mistake when I posted there was nothing steering money I that game in the NCAAB markets. I apologize for that mistake.

With Dame paying those groups I have to think there will be some take. That would lead to a UCF cover. UCLA failing wasn’t so much settlement but more of balance.

Because of the balance, I’m passing, I’m already in Alabama and think the volume there is worth it; but don’t be surprised SMU fails today.

It should be SMU, but…

Good Luck

[KVB]

Big 10

The sharp forecast has a Tie game 65-65 with Wisconsin getting the moneyline edge in the raw score. The public gauge says Wisky wins 64-61.

The line opened a little high at Wisky and the books have taken some Northwestern action because of it. The total opened near the gauge and has ticked downward, away from my line.

Right now Michigan is leading in the second but anything can happen regarding both spread and moneyline. There are many splits here in the metrics again and I’m not taking a risk to try and read the direction of the money.

I think this ends up being a pass as well. I sense a Minnesota comeback leading to a Northwestern cover but metrics don’t really uncover a play here.

Let’s see how the first game plays out.

[KVB]

Atl 10

The sharp forecast has Richmond beating VCU 70-64. The public gauge says VCU wins 74-69.

The forecast calls for an upset here but the line has moved away from me. I think this is the favorite, but it really could be a 6 point game (line went from VCU -5.5 to VCU -6.5). A separate metric involving available teaser analysis shows that if it is the favorite, it could be a 10 point game.

I don’t want to start confusing everyone with even more score predictions, but that has less to do with performance and more to do with who is getting paid where and when.

I think I am not alone in making the assumption that the moneyline for VCU is a safe bet here. Getting another successful forecasted upset with Richmond is not a very likely occurrence in this situation. Further, strong metrics from sophisticated decision makers are sending bettors to the underdog (at least spread wise) but the market isn’t showing it.

Rhode Island handling the business as a favorite will split money as well. On Wednesday there were two Atlantic 10 games. The first was the favorite and UNDER, the second the upset an OVER…revealing the natural give and take of the market.

If game one today is the Favorite and OVER, do we think we the upset comes again in game two? Not if we are patient bettors.

Too much draw to Richmond and I am passing. If we really want to get detailed I can note that yesterday Richmond spoiled an upset moneyline prediction and today has the chance to make on happen. Even at this level there is give and take.

The Total moved toward my line and I am tempted to counter and by the OVER here. The bottom line is that many signals of money being steered are out there, but with the probabilities as they stand, it’s best to pass.

I may revisit this and actually pick up the OVER. It’s the publics thirst for it that has me hesitant.

[KVB]

SEC

The sharp forecast says Vanderbilt beats Arkansas 72-69. The public gauge has Vandy winning 74-72.

The line opened Vandy -2 and moved to -4, past my line. The market is tight. The line opened right between the numbers at 144.5 and moved downward toward my line. Again we have a tight market.

Pressure on Vandy to fail is still high but the public has started to take notice of their success and is taking them. This splits money a bit and helps to put some back onto Vandy. Any efforts to draw money toward Vandy should be noticed. This helps to create a situation to for the market to tolerate the Vandy fail.

Again, on Wednesday this conference had two games, the favorite and Under followed by the upset and OVER.

The first game today shows the underdog and OVER, do we really see Vandy cover as the favorite?

We probably won’t see them cover but Vandy represents a dangerous situation at these tournament rounds and I would not bet against them. Maybe the market settles with a Vandy win without the cover.

[KVB]

...The sharp forecast has UCLA beating Arizona 76-74. The public gauge says UCLA wins 80-79...

...I don’t see many other factors in the NCAA Basketball markets contributing to money flow...

This was a mistake, there were some metrics I overlooked. While it would have had me considering Zona, who won, I don't think it would have actually directed me to a bet.

But still, that statement wasn't true, there were metrics that I missed.

I'm trying to be honest and detailed here and posting in a blitz can cause errors.

[Jayvegas420]

Considering Vandy's extremely slow start, what kinda "in play" total would you consider trading?

[KVB]

For the first three games today my forecast failed when predicting the Bama/Kentucky UNDER but has succeeded against the market on all other predictions.

When this started I though the forecasts would slump a bit against Totals. I have been wrong, it's cruising at a 60% clip.

[Jayvegas420]

Currently 132.5

9-0 Cocks




14:23 1st

[KVB]

Considering Vandy's extremely slow start, what kinda "in play" total would you consider trading?

It's tough to say, getting less than 130 for the OVER seems good,. I do think the game turns and more points get in so if it floats around 130 -132 it may be the spot. There's risk here because it can float then drop to 125 and float again, accumulating more OVERS.

Vandy even more dangerous after starting slow in my opinion.

[KVB]

Currently 132.5

9-0 Cocks




14:23 1st

I think Vandy is going to come back and bury a lot of the market. 9-0 is just too much.

[Jayvegas420]

You nailed it ....
10 straight for Vandy's in 2 mins.

One point game!

[omedo]

KVB, with so many metrics, do you have an weight that you put on them.
And more importantly, if you have the weights, its more about numbers or feelings those weights?

[KVB]

Yeah, with pressure on Vandy to fail combined with result watchers trying to bounce out of the give and take from Wednesday and get a dog here we have a lot of Arkansas bets that are seeing the sharks circle when they go up 9-0.

And you know what happens when a team leads early and the sharks start circling.

[KVB]

KVB, with so many metrics, do you have an weight that you put on them.
And more importantly, if you have the weights, its more about numbers or feelings those weights?

That's just it. It's knowing how to weight them. It's a lot of not only remembering your bets, but why you made them. Situations repeat themselves constantly so having the history and tracking is key.

Things are weighted and pretty on point, but we know some situations are traps, some are give and some are take.

Can't win them all but it doesn't mean we have to alter our approach when things go bad.

When trading, like in this thread, there is some subjectivity because I don't worry as much about price and cost, which needs to be considered long term.

[Jayvegas420]

What about UCOnn/Cinci?


My big bet today is Creighton ML

[KVB]

AAC

The sharp forecast says Cincinnati beats UConn 73-58. The public gauge has Cinci winning 68-57.

That line opened on the low side, but not too low and moved further form my line to -9.5. Pressure has automatically been created on Cinci. So now the books can sit with the majority of bets on one side, then a downward movement implies some “sharp hit” it’s “RLM” or some bullshit.

Why would forecasters shy away from a forecast that hasn’t lost against a closing spread in this conference yet? By the way, expect that first game to play around the line and be a little ambiguous. It’s doing that last I looked so no big prediction that I’m making.

Back to why would the line would move lower. Readers have a sense now that there are groups out there that would seek to counter such a sideways market, even if it is just a small one conference sample.

But the books also play tricks. They move lines to generate action and even to confuse the market. So how do we know which case we have?

Experience and tracking the bets and why they are made gives us useable data and even regressions. That’s how often the same thing happens every year.

I anticipated that move downward because of the situation and we saw it.

It could drop further if SMU increases their lead.

This is still a tough call because of the spot in the tournament. I am passing for now because we need more data and have more time but know that the money hitting UConn can move a market and means business.

[KVB]

Yeah, so it's already a 9 point line. The pressure is real.

The books needed to split money here, so they opened low and dropped a little to get predictable favorite action.

Then the bettors came in and forced the move to 9.

[omedo]

Sorry about the offtopic but i'm curious. Trading acount, what's the porpuse of that aproach?

[KVB]

AAC

The sharp forecast says Cincinnati beats UConn 73-58. The public gauge has Cinci winning 68-57...

The Total opened low as well. The books took predictable money on the OVER moving it close to the gauge. The forecast is 6-1 against totals in this conference. You see, the market and the books have a way of splitting even the decision makers. Try getting the two pick parlay out of this game. Good Luck there.

You may get the right side in one, but the same process will kill you in the other. It’s not always the case, but it’s just one obstacle in the bettor’s way. It’s a game of two’s and -110 odds make it that way.

And just when you get it right, the line middles or the hook gets you.

We still have time to make a decision.

[KVB]

Sorry about the offtopic but i'm curious. Trading acount, what's the porpuse of that aproach?

Get onto winners or weed out some losers. It could even be a "spot" betting account.

In the CFL thread both were tracked and the trading account, while more volatile, performed better.

Think of it like long term investment returns vs. short term, more aggressive trading.

Some metrics only measure the short term phase of a long term picture. We have to stay dynamic. I mentioned once about how modelers have a problem because they are so static, and not dynamic with the changing market.

What happened years ago affects numbers, no doubt, but does it really apply to today? An argument can be made both ways.

[KVB]

Big East

The sharp forecast says Villanova beats Creighton 79-60. The public gauge says Nova gets it 77-71.

Both lines have opened close to the gauge and have both moved towards my line. The Total was a little low and entices some over play, but the sharp forecast prevails again in the movement. The books attracting over money today, it seems. There’s some extra pressure the OVER built in, but it’s not very sophisticated. It can win because it will eventually lose and has already lost. Again the game is loaded and open for a middle in Total.

As far as the spread, this conference has been pretty evenly balanced and I see more balance in this game.

I know it’s sexy to call the championship game of a big conference, but it can hurt the account to outright gamble on a trade.

I’m passing here.

[KVB]

AAC

The sharp forecast has SMU beating UCF 70-65. The public gauge shows SMU winning 68-58...

It sure smells like an UNDER, especially with the books having a lower line at the open and taking all the action on the OVER.

I’ll bite for game one (patience?) and take UNDER 126.5 (-105) for UCF vs. SMU...

That line jumped to 128.5 by game time, revealing the pressure. This bet died then and showed lack of patience. Does that make sense?

They scored 129 points.


Those countering the forecast and noticing this over action I keep talking about just saw some take.

There's bound to be some give but a chase is a bad way to play this game. I'm passing on what should be an UNDER in UConn vs. Cincinnati.

[KVB]

Now we see the chase and watch the line drop from 124 as Under money seeks redemption. The problem is that these guys aren't the only ones seeking the Under.

This time of the tourneys should be automatic to trade but often end up full of thorns. The trick is to get passed the thorns to find rose in the bush.

[KVB]

Don't forget the emboldened forecasters who are 7-1 against the totals in the AAC. They've already chomped at the OVER and will get more.

I wish I could have put more time into totals, it's fascinating. Anyway, it's like groups of people all charging towards a point. One will survive and one will fall.

Should be an interesting ending. Perhaps we see OVERtime.

[KVB]

Big 12

The sharp forecast shows West Virginia beating Iowa St. 71-70. The public gauge has WV winning 78-75.

The line opened at the gauge and moved away from my line. There is some natural West Virginia money here and forecasters using any discrepancy may sideline from this sharper line. The Total opened between the big gap in the numbers and has moved towards my line.

I won’t say there is no settlement here but nothing worth going after. This conference has seen its streaks and payouts and it’s pretty balanced. I would consider the UNDER in this game as an extra trade but we learn more by watching.

Remember, there is still an NCAA Tournament to be played and some big, high volume, teams come out of the Big 12. At this point, the market here is a thorny bush as it takes back what it gave on Thursday.

There’s no rose in there.

[omedo]

Ok, i get that year from year is diferent, but the metrics dont allready acount for that?

[KVB]

SEC

The sharp forecast says Vanderbilt beats Arkansas 72-69. The public gauge has Vandy winning 74-72.

Pressure on Vandy to fail is still high but the public has started to take notice of their success and is taking them. This splits money a bit and helps to put some back onto Vandy. Any efforts to draw money toward Vandy should be noticed. This helps to create a situation to for the market to tolerate the Vandy fail...

Sure enough, Vandy not only failed to cover, they lost.

This could make Marshall dangerous.

[KVB]

Ok, i get that year from year is diferent, but the metrics dont allready acount for that?

One thing that was always fascinating about studying psychology in college was not that everyone is different, which they are, it was all the many ways people are exactly the same.

Each year isn't different. The same thing happens, just different characters play the roles.

Some metrics count for that. The forecast absorbs all the noise, it's long term. It's holding it's own throughout these tourneys with only a half point discrepancy against the market.

But within that context the market is guiding bettors around using tools that exploit how we are all similar.

Many bets, even long term, will lose...you know that. But sometimes if we can figure out why we lost, then we don't have to make that mistake again.

[KVB]

Atl 10

The sharp forecast has Richmond beating VCU 70-64. The public gauge says VCU wins 74-69.

The forecast calls for an upset here but the line has moved away from me. I think this is the favorite, but it really could be a 6 point game (line went from VCU -5.5 to VCU -6.5). A separate metric involving available teaser analysis shows that if it is the favorite, it could be a 10 point game.

I don’t want to start confusing everyone with even more score predictions, but that has less to do with performance and more to do with who is getting paid where and when.

I think I am not alone in making the assumption that the moneyline for VCU is a safe bet here. Getting another successful forecasted upset with Richmond is not a very likely occurrence in this situation. Further, strong metrics from sophisticated decision makers are sending bettors to the underdog (at least spread wise) but the market isn’t showing it.

Rhode Island handling the business as a favorite will split money as well. On Wednesday there were two Atlantic 10 games. The first was the favorite and UNDER, the second the upset an OVER…revealing the natural give and take of the market.

If game one today is the Favorite and OVER, do we think we the upset comes again in game two? Not if we are patient bettors.

Too much draw to Richmond and I am passing. If we really want to get detailed I can note that yesterday Richmond spoiled an upset moneyline prediction and today has the chance to make on happen. Even at this level there is give and take.

The Total moved toward my line and I am tempted to counter and by the OVER here. The bottom line is that many signals of money being steered are out there, but with the probabilities as they stand, it’s best to pass.

I may revisit this and actually pick up the OVER. It’s the publics thirst for it that has me hesitant.

This was spot on. From the give and take on Wednesday we saw two favorites and two overs here in this conference today.

I was suspicious of the natural give and take, and rightfully so.

Oh, and did I mention a specific score if the favorite were to cover? Check that scoreboard, they even used OT to get there.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[KVB]

Conference USA

The sharp forecast says Mid Tenn State beats Marshall 81-74. The public gauge says MTSU wins 87-78.

The line opened at the public gauge of MTSU -9 and has moved away from my line to -10. The public likes MTSU and this line is pretty sharp in that respect. I think the public gets encouraged when it sees their team move up like that. It’s not much protection for the books even though it looks like it.

I think this is trying to pass a solid favorite here to onlookers. From looking at the rest of the market I think an upset or underdog looms here. Using metrics involving the lines we’ve seen so far in this tournament and the results, I’ve taken on a shot on some identified give and take. It’s a bit early but I picked up Marshall +10 (-105) over MTSU.

I’m going with the forecast on this one and going against some pressure I see on MTSU from a regional perspective. This game could be an upset and I may take that shot as we get closer to game time.

Good Luck

[KVB]

Making plays early when analyzing the markets can be costly. I already lost a Total because of it and I pulled the trigger early on Marshall. Let me get the info down for the next two games and worry about plays as they approach.

[omedo]

Ok, i would like to discuss much further but enough with the derail. Let the madness be gone!

[KVB]

Ok, i would like to discuss much further but enough with the derail. Let the madness be gone!

We will pal, I know there are PM's. Just when I wanted to get to them March Madness happened I decided upon this crazy project of posting all these games.

[KVB]

ACC

The sharp forecast says Notre Dame beats Duke 73-69. The public gauge has Duke winning 77-75.

The line has moved away from my forecast with Duke -3 to -4.5. The Total opened with the gauge and has moved towards my line.

I know there’s public support for a surging Duke squad but once again we have Notre Dame the dog and predicted by the forecast. This time the line has moved away from Dame, last night it moved towards them.

Could this be Dame again? Could this be another forecasted upset? Predicted upsets have been doing well in this market and today there were two. Richmond failed against VCU and now we have Dame predicted to beat Duke.

Look at the conference. If you list every game in rotation order and then the results you will see that the ACC started this tournament with favorites and results have shifted to the dogs. This should come as no surprise and things really are balanced here but I think Dame has a shot, at least at +4.5.

I can list more reasons to take Duke here than Dame. I’ve tried to introduce many different kinds of decision making tools in these posts, approaching many games differently. This way I have dropped hints on things to look for in the markets.

Once you have a program, or checklist of things to look at, here’s a good tool. Weighting counted or not, sometimes it’s a good idea to draw a line down the center of a page and write the reasons for a team on one side, and reasons not to take them on the other.

Then do the same for the opponent. A reason not to take team A is not always a reason to take team B. That’s why it’s not one team on each side of the line and just a list of reasons to take each of them. Sometimes a game isn’t about a team winning or losing, but about one team NOT winning or losing. The push really causes disappointment in these cases because the bettor is right, it wasn’t such and such team, but it wasn’t the other one either.

I hate being right and still not getting paid…halftime lines tend to do this too. Anyway, I can see more reasons to take Duke than Dame and reasons not to take Dame are mitigated by several metrics…they lose some weight.

I just may press the forecast here with Notre Dame. We have a lot of time and I don’t think the line will drop, but given the forecast it very well could.

[KVB]

The Total for Duke vs. Dame is also pretty well split. I have very little indications for this game except to say it is high profile, high volume, and the public loves their Overs. Of course, you have to pick and choose when to fade that unsuspecting public. While the forecast already does, this may not be the time to press it in the trading account.

Sometimes the public gets their Overs, or they would forget how much they love them.

I’m passing on the Total in the absence of any new information.