Velcorr's mma money machine

**Redman3693** · 07-11-16, 03:33 PM

ThanX for the write-ups Mate.

I'm looking fwd to seeing what your final pix are.

Cheers & BOL

**vegaschulo** · 07-11-16, 03:44 PM

Same here I'll wait till you got your official picks Velcorr..BOL

**BIGDAY** · 07-11-16, 03:46 PM

Hard to bet against MacDonald. Guy finds ways to win. Raw talent.

**Altern8** · 07-11-16, 04:40 PM

Can Landon Vannata get the win? Are we going to see an upset like we did with Miesha Tate! I need one of those sell your house and put it on Brock Lesnar type of plays.

**Smoke** · 07-11-16, 04:43 PM

good stuff velcro

**velcorr** · 07-11-16, 05:46 PM

Lesnar was a slight dog and an easy pick. Vannata hasn't even fought in the UFC. He doesn't even have a wikipedia page. Anyone who would suggest others to invest a lot of their valuable bankroll on a fighter like that to beat the number 3 ranked LW in the UFC who is on a seven fight win streak in the toughest division in MMA and his last win was over Edson Barboza, whom just essentially made former champ Anthony Pettis essentially irrelevant and might be (Barboza) the best raw talent in the LW division, would be nuts. Sorry for the run on sentence.

The reason I made it such is if you google tape on Vannata, realize he's 8-0 with only 1 win NOT in the first round, a Jackson/Winkleton product, with half his wins coming from submission, you could probably talk yourself into betting him as a live dog. The line certainly isn't going to move closer to him, so if you were to make a play, wait until weigh-ins and see how he looks first. Those weigh ins, now that they've become fashion shows for Reebok since they weigh in early and are partially re-hydrated when you see them, have become informative, check the line, and make a play on him to finish by any means, including DQ. There is no way he decisions TF. I personally don't see him as a live dog, he almost lost to J.P. Reese (google him). The only way I could see him winning is TF losing. Vannata is taking this on late notice, and TF probably isn't gameplanning for this kid, so it begs the question, "How seriously will TF take this fight?"
So, if Vannata wins a bet, that'll be how. Not worth it for +600 or whatever the finish prop would be.

I want to bet on this fight, but it screams dog or pass. Non O/U props are still not out. I don't see any value in the O/U 1.5 @ -110.

I already gave a lock but -200 isn't as sexy as +130 to +170 like Lesnar. I'll put together a nice plus money parlay for you that you can bet the house on and get paid. Peace.

Originally posted by Altern8

Can Landon Vannata get the win? Are we going to see an upset like we did with Miesha Tate! I need one of those sell your house and put it on Brock Lesnar type of plays.

**jjgold** · 07-11-16, 05:51 PM

Tremendous write up Velcro

**velcorr** · 07-11-16, 05:54 PM

This is true. He's had two and a half years to improve since that Faber loss, and he's only 25. I just wish he had one credible win. Kanehara certainly doesn't count. Then again, Linkner hasn't exactly built up an exceptional resume either. McDonald by sub or by dec seems like the play but watching all of their fights has made me second guess this style match-up.

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Hard to bet against MacDonald. Guy finds ways to win. Raw talent.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-11-16, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by velcorr

This is true. He's had two and a half years to improve since that Faber loss, and he's only 25. I just wish he had one credible win. Kanehara certainly doesn't count. Then again, Linkner hasn't exactly built up an exceptional resume either. McDonald by sub or by dec seems like the play but watching all of their fights has made me second guess this style match-up.

Macdonald was losing to Kanehara for most of the fight before reversing a choke and getting the sub. Don't think he KOs or outpoints Lineker so sub is a good play if you like MacDonald.

**velcorr** · 07-11-16, 06:20 PM

I agree and that Kanehara fight is what took all the steam out of McDonald's hype. It's McDonald by sub if you like McDonald, and I still can't find a prop price for that. I spent yesterday watching McDonald and Linkners last four or five fights, each, and my gut is saying Linkner takes this. Really tough fight to handicap, so many variables. I think a lot of the money that will go on McDonald hasn't watched too many (if any) Linkner fights. I'm still probing this fight but I've been leaning back and forth all day. Linkner isn't -180 for nothing. On paper, McDonald should have this but I think the books believe Linkner is the better fighter and want money on McDonald. I find trying to work the line out backwards can sometimes help break deadlocks in your own personal handicapping. IE, if Vegas thought Lesnar was going to lose easily but that the public would bet Hunt, the line wouldn't have opened at +170, hence the line being near pick em an hour before the fight. I'm starting to think the smart betting play is to pass on this fight. There is plenty of value on the undercard.

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Macdonald was losing to Kanehara for most of the fight before reversing a choke and getting the sub. Don't think he KOs or outpoints Lineker so sub is a good play if you like MacDonald.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-11-16, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by velcorr

I agree and that Kanehara fight is what took all the steam out of McDonald's hype. It's McDonald by sub if you like McDonald, and I still can't find a prop price for that. I spent yesterday watching McDonald and Linkners last four or five fights, each, and my gut is saying Linkner takes this. Really tough fight to handicap, so many variables. I think a lot of the money that will go on McDonald hasn't watched too many (if any) Linkner fights. I'm still probing this fight but I've been leaning back and forth all day. Linkner isn't -180 for nothing. On paper, McDonald should have this but I think the books believe Linkner is the better fighter and want money on McDonald. I find trying to work the line out backwards can sometimes help break deadlocks in your own personal handicapping. IE, if Vegas thought Lesnar was going to lose easily but that the public would bet Hunt, the line wouldn't have opened at +170, hence the line being near pick em an hour before the fight. I'm starting to think the smart betting play is to pass on this fight. There is plenty of value on the undercard.

Props for the 5-round fight haven't come out yet but it's probably worth hitting Macdonald for sub at openers. I agree that public money will probably come on Macdonald so maybe wait and see if Lineker ML/dec odds improve and pass if they don't

**BIGDAY** · 07-11-16, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by velcorr

This is true. He's had two and a half years to improve since that Faber loss, and he's only 25. I just wish he had one credible win. Kanehara certainly doesn't count. Then again, Linkner hasn't exactly built up an exceptional resume either. McDonald by sub or by dec seems like the play but watching all of their fights has made me second guess this style match-up.

He owned Miguel Torres in his prime.

**Altern8** · 07-11-16, 06:42 PM

Thanks for the input. After watching a few Youtube fights of TF and Vannata seems like TF will get it done in the 1st. I had the same parlay as you on Saturday with Aldo/Caine/Lesnar and i don't think I've ever felt so confident about a bet i also had a Lesnar single to win. Looking ahead have you seen CM Punks odds? That's seems to have my alert as does McGregors odds. Sorry to go off fight card topic.

**mcfugly** · 07-11-16, 06:44 PM

**velcorr** · 07-11-16, 06:51 PM

Miguel Torres was the most overrated fighter in MMA history and if he had a prime, McDonald was in junior high during it.

Originally posted by BIGDAY

He owned Miguel Torres in his prime.

**velcorr** · 07-11-16, 07:03 PM

TF u1.5 rounds is my lean right now. If Vannata shocks the world, he shocks the world. Most of my money will be on the undercard but I'll prob put 0.25 or 0.5 on TF u1.5 but I'm waiting for the weigh-ins, as I always do.

I can't wait to put another 4 units on Diaz. Diaz will beat CM again, and CM will either retire and do movies or go on hiatus and come back to FW. Diaz is the worst possible matchup for McGreggor. His chin is one of the best in MMA, his MMA boxing and real boxing is one of the best in MMA, he's bigger, if the fight goes to the ground, we all know what'll happen. McGreggor's cardio has never been tested, unlike cardiophile Diaz. I can just pray that people put their money on McGreggor again so I can make a fortune on the fight like I did last time. McGreggor/Aldo 2, if it happens, will be an interesting bet.

CM Punk.... Unless he's +2000, I can't see how anyone would play him. He's pushing 40 and I hang out with people who have better BJJ than him. Props to him for "testing himself", but 18 months, training with a stellar camp, can't make up for the fact that he's never fought, is almost 40, and 40 in pro-wrestling years, so he's 50. Again, hopefully WWE marks push the line so it's red panty day fading CM Punk.

I can't wait for UFC 202. Diaz is a lock and Maia vs Condit is going to be a classic battle of styles.

Originally posted by Altern8

Thanks for the input. After watching a few Youtube fights of TF and Vannata seems like TF will get it done in the 1st. I had the same parlay as you on Saturday with Aldo/Caine/Lesnar and i don't think I've ever felt so confident about a bet i also had a Lesnar single to win. Looking ahead have you seen CM Punks odds? That's seems to have my alert as does McGregors odds. Sorry to go off fight card topic.

**blackHIPPY** · 07-11-16, 07:11 PM

Freewave freewave freestyle freestyle

**velcorr** · 07-11-16, 07:15 PM

Not an official pick

People worried about line changes (which are way less dynamic for these UFC Fight Night's), here is a parlay that should window. I'm not playing it but I might after I see the weigh-ins.

Oliynyk, Alvey and Holtzman, 1 unit for 1.6 units

If that doesn't cash, I'll be shocked and the more I think about it, the more I think I'll play this once I see the weigh-ins.

**velcorr** · 07-11-16, 07:20 PM

I'd say Torres was in his prime in 2005, not in 2012 when McDonald starched him in 3 minutes when Torres was on a 3-3 run, his 3 losses coming to DJ, Benavidez and Bowles, all by finish. I don't think Torres went into UFC 145 "in his prime" after those losses. I was on the Torres hype train too but he really never beat anyone when he was 37-1 and once he started fighting good fighters, we all know what happened.

Originally posted by BIGDAY

He owned Miguel Torres in his prime.

**velcorr** · 07-11-16, 07:41 PM

Agreed. I love the Fight Night cards, there isn't too much action on them so the lines are usually safe until the props hit all the books and people can see the weigh-ins. Heritage has a 250 USD bet limit per fight on this card.

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Props for the 5-round fight haven't come out yet but it's probably worth hitting Macdonald for sub at openers. I agree that public money will probably come on Macdonald so maybe wait and see if Lineker ML/dec odds improve and pass if they don't

**Smoke** · 07-11-16, 08:38 PM

Velcro what do you think of the buyout?

Will the ufc become more fixed and entertainment like wwe?

**kidcudi92** · 07-11-16, 08:40 PM

OP, is that you?

**jjgold** · 07-11-16, 08:48 PM

Vector were you a fighter?

**Ty$** · 07-11-16, 08:49 PM

If you don't think McDonald can't KO Lineker you guys are crazy.... McDonald is way faster and hits just as hard. McDonald will finish him sometime later in the fight by ko.

**The Giant** · 07-11-16, 08:51 PM

Is this guy better than Big Day?

Big Day has long been my go-to guy when it comes to MMA.

I'm typing this from a cardboard box, stealing Wi-Fi behind a Walmart.

**velcorr** · 07-11-16, 08:51 PM

I don't think the UFC is fixed now and this sale is to real investors with serious capitol and intentions on taking the UFC to the next level. The Fertitta's did a great job but WME-IMG can expand finally to China and India and will eventually go public. It will be funny to see the new, on a leash, Dana White. MMA is a sport, fight fixing is illegal. Look what happened to tennis, the ATP and WTA are worth exponentially more than the UFC. People who think sports are fixed should obviously not be betting on them or calling themsleves a capper.

Originally posted by Smoke

Velcro what do you think of the buyout?

Will the ufc become more fixed and entertainment like wwe?

**kidcudi92** · 07-11-16, 08:52 PM

Originally posted by Ty$

If you don't think McDonald can't KO Lineker you guys are crazy.... McDonald's is way faster and hits just as hard McDonald will finish him sometime later in the fight by ko

This is hard to read.

**velcorr** · 07-11-16, 08:55 PM

I'm new to this site, I don't know much about Big Day. Follow us both, I can't speak for anyone else but I'm up betting MMA since 2005. Information = money.

Originally posted by The Giant

Is this guy better than Big Day?

Big Day has long been my go-to guy when it comes to MMA.

I'm typing this from a cardboard box, stealing Wi-Fi behind a Walmart.

**Ty$** · 07-11-16, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by kidcudi92

This is hard to read.

You get what I'm saying though right. Sorry I get crazy typing on my phone.

**velcorr** · 07-11-16, 08:58 PM

Super tough fight to read. Ty$, have you watched Lineker's last four fights? Where was McDonald's speed and power vs Kanehara, the fight he was getting schooled in till he pulled that win out of his arse.

Originally posted by Ty$

If you don't think McDonald can't KO Lineker you guys are crazy.... McDonald is way faster and hits just as hard. McDonald will finish him sometime later in the fight by ko.

**velcorr** · 07-11-16, 08:59 PM

I think he meant the fight.

Originally posted by Ty$

You get what I'm saying though right. Sorry I get crazy typing on my phone.

**kidcudi92** · 07-11-16, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by Ty$

You get what I'm saying though right. Sorry I get crazy typing on my phone.

haha I figured it was autocorrect, sorry I am the resident forum asshole

Carry on men, I will show myself out

**Ty$** · 07-11-16, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by velcorr

Super tough fight to read. Ty$, have you watched Lineker's last four fights? Where was McDonald's speed and power vs Kanehara, the fight he was getting schooled in till he pulled that win out of his arse.

Agree he didn't look great but that was off a long layoff also. When I think of Lineker all I think of is plod ahead and swing from the hip. I feel like he can be countered by a technical boxer like McDonald. I'm on McD straight so far.

**velcorr** · 07-11-16, 09:02 PM

I know fighters.

Originally posted by jjgold

Vector were you a fighter?