Anybody else thinking of blind betting the Cubs 1.5 run line every game?

[d2bets]

They face the Rockies now - who were #14 in the NL last year in runs scored in road games while being #12 in pitching ERA in road games. I fully expect a sweep and I think some of the games this weekend will be in the ballpark of 15-2


I may make the biggest bet I've ever make in the Arrieta game on Saturday. Arrieta against a Rockies team away from Coors field with a red hot cubs offense/bullpen backing him up? It just doesn't get any better than that. Even if he gets rocked (very unlikely), cubs will still probably win 9-5.

Is it Arrieta vs. Chatwood? ML gotta be close to -300, right?

[Bigdave117]

Is it Arrieta vs. Chatwood? ML gotta be close to -300, right?

It's going to be the biggest ML we've seen in a very long time. Maybe even -350


I'll probably bet the -2.5 run line. Cubs should win by at least 4 runs

[Grits n' Gravy]

I will gladly book the action of op.

[Capybara]

Unbelievably, the one Cubs run line I played was the loser. But it's getting hard not to place it and the over in every game. I'm afraid the prices are going to start to get out of hand.

[iloseagain]

Is it Arrieta vs. Chatwood? ML gotta be close to -300, right?

It's going to be the biggest ML we've seen in a very long time. Maybe even -350


I'll probably bet the -2.5 run line. Cubs should win by at least 4 runs

i remember a while back, my buddy took a play when cliff lee was on texas and he was facing the orioles. This was when Cliff Lee was absolutely FIRE... Tex was in the -300 to -350 range. Needless to say, something ridiculous happened and balt won on a crazy homerun and killed his bet.. He lost a shitload of money haha.

Pretty sure it was you Jeff.. Hope you see this post.. I dont think he has a username on here though, just reads the forum from the outside.

[Bigdave117]

i remember a while back, my buddy took a play when cliff lee was on texas and he was facing the orioles. This was when Cliff Lee was absolutely FIRE... Tex was in the -300 to -350 range. Needless to say, something ridiculous happened and balt won on a crazy homerun and killed his bet.. He lost a shitload of money haha.

Pretty sure it was you Jeff.. Hope you see this post.. I dont think he has a username on here though, just reads the forum from the outside.

Cliff Lee's numbers were mediocre with Texas. I don't recall him ever being on a big hot streak on Texas?

[iloseagain]

Cliff Lee's numbers were mediocre with Texas. I don't recall him ever being on a big hot streak on Texas?

Hmmm you are right.. I just looked at his stats and he only was on texas for 1 year.. I swear to god he was on texas during this play and it was -350 or so.. I will text him tomorrow and figure out what it was.. His best years were on philly and cleveland but i know for a fact it wasn't when he was on philly or cleveland..

[TheMoneyShot]

All I know is... I wouldn't want to play the Cubs.

1 Dangerous team

[iloseagain]

It was somewhere in that 2010 season where he gave up a big homerun at the end of the game.. My computer is sucking some major dick right now so i can't find it

[Bigdave117]

Hmmm you are right.. I just looked at his stats and he only was on texas for 1 year.. I swear to god he was on texas during this play and it was -350 or so.. I will text him tomorrow and figure out what it was.. His best years were on philly and cleveland but i know for a fact it wasn't when he was on philly or cleveland..

you guys who are not hopping on this train right now are being very foolish. It's only a matter of time until Vegas adjusts and starts giving all their games outrageously high lines. The fact that today's game was only around -165 is just ridiculous - I would take -165 with team facing Kershaw if Arrieta is pitching (even if it's a tied game into the 8th, cubs bullpen is much much better)


You have to pounce on the gold mine before it's completely discovered

[Albert Poo Holes]

Hop on cubs RL and blind bet hamels every start rangers have 13 in a row

[JMon]

i remember a while back, my buddy took a play when cliff lee was on texas and he was facing the orioles. This was when Cliff Lee was absolutely FIRE... Tex was in the -300 to -350 range. Needless to say, something ridiculous happened and balt won on a crazy homerun and killed his bet.. He lost a shitload of money haha.

Pretty sure it was you Jeff.. Hope you see this post.. I dont think he has a username on here though, just reads the forum from the outside.

July 10, 2010. -350 vs Balt, lost 1-6

[turtlejc]

Whatever Happened to cliff lee?

[JMon]

Whatever Happened to cliff lee?

Tore his flexor tendon and missed the entire 2015 season. Phillies bought out his remaining contract turning him into a FA, where he remains.

[d2bets]

Line shot up from -185 to -240 today.

And Cubs have their 5th starter on the mound today. Think about that. How many 5th starters are garnering -240 ML in April? Bookies seem to be baking in the Cubs winning 110+ games. They should win a lot, but it is going to be tough to make a profit.

[Bigdave117]

Line shot up from -185 to -240 today.

And Cubs have their 5th starter on the mound today. Think about that. How many 5th starters are garnering -240 ML in April? Bookies seem to be baking in the Cubs winning 110+ games. They should win a lot, but it is going to be tough to make a profit.

You gotta bet the 1.5 or 2.5 runline


but yes Vegas is going to try very hard to make it unprofitable to bet on the cubs

[d2bets]

You gotta bet the 1.5 or 2.5 runline


but yes Vegas is going to try very hard to make it unprofitable to bet on the cubs

If they keep winning by 3+ runs, the RL's are going to get interesting. Especially in the summer when runs should be more plentiful.

[Bigdave117]

If they keep winning by 3+ runs, the RL's are going to get interesting. Especially in the summer when runs should be more plentiful.

Were you betting back in 2001? How high did they make the mariners lines when they won 116 games?


They won 71 of 162 games by 3+ runs. That had to be incredibly profitable. Most 2.5 run lines are generally around +200

[Capybara]

Well here we are again. -120 today, hard to resist.

And why is the under 8 juiced?!

[iloseagain]

July 10, 2010. -350 vs Balt, lost 1-6

Yes thank u. Balt hit a grand slam in the 8th or something

[Bigdave117]

Yes thank u. Balt hit a grand slam in the 8th or something

hmmm I wonder why the line was so large for that game. Rangers were only a 90 win team and while the Orioles were bad (96 losses), they weren't all time bad


Jesus, are they going to make the cub games - 450 then soon?

[ATLIEN6]

I am contemplating dropping the hammer on Cubs -2.5 today

[Smoke]

I am contemplating dropping the hammer on Cubs -2.5 today

Dont do it alien

[iloseagain]

you guys who are not hopping on this train right now are being very foolish. It's only a matter of time until Vegas adjusts and starts giving all their games outrageously high lines. The fact that today's game was only around -165 is just ridiculous - I would take -165 with team facing Kershaw if Arrieta is pitching (even if it's a tied game into the 8th, cubs bullpen is much much better)


You have to pounce on the gold mine before it's completely discovered

i have been on the train

[iloseagain]

hmmm I wonder why the line was so large for that game. Rangers were only a 90 win team and while the Orioles were bad (96 losses), they weren't all time bad


Jesus, are they going to make the cub games - 450 then soon?

Lee was in a ridiculous stretch of pitching. He was throwing complete game shutouts left and right. It was insane.. Thats why it was so high

okay they werent complete game shutouts, but i just checked and he threw 4 CG out of 6 leading up to that game. Werent shutouts either but he was pitching well and getting W's

They had won 8 out of their last 9 when he pitched

[d2bets]

Hendricks is in a really good place right now too. He's very underrated. Guy just flat out knows how to pitch.

[Bigdave117]

Hendricks is in a really good place right now too. He's very underrated. Guy just flat out knows how to pitch.

Cubs pen is frigging awesome too man

all Hendricks needs to do is give you 6 innings of say 3 run ball and cubs should win by at least 3 runs. You get in that pen and you face Strop, Grimm and Rondon? It's game over

[jjgold]

Today again

No way they can lose

[JMon]

I know it's easy to go and look at past results and not so easy to predict future results. In any case I decided to hit the db and look at each team who had the most wins in the regular season for past 5 years to see how they fared on the ML and RL. I wanted to do this to see more or less how the line makers adjusted. I did decide to leave out ML's of -105 in the RL results but do have them. Note as with any db, there maybe some discrepancy in entry closing lines or missed entry, but should be fairly accurate. Results are to win 100

2015 -STL

ML- (-136.1 average line) +2,067
RL - (81-81) +1,206
-1.5 - 55-70 (+137.1 average line) +423
+1.5 - 23-10 (-183.4 average line) +524

2014 -LAA

ML (-128.7 average line) +2,034
RL - (84-77) +1,105
-1.5 - 53-59 (+133.2 average line) +972
+1.5 - 30-16 (-168.4 average line) +318

2013 - BOS

ML (average line -130.6) +1,808
RL - (84-76) +1,114
-1.5 - 58-56 (average line +131.7) +1,919
+1.5 - 24-18 (average line -175.7) -757

2012- Nats

ML (average line -127.2) +2,267
RL - (84-78) +1,488
-1.5 - 53-57 (+141.9 average line) +1,678
+1.5 - 29-19 (-166.7 average line) -190

2011- Phillies

ML - (-160.8 average line) +1006
RL - (80-81) +707
-1.5 - 69-71 (+121 average line) +1,123
+1.5 - 7-7 (-173.4 average line) -552

[habitualwinning]

Were you betting back in 2001? How high did they make the mariners lines when they won 116 games?


They won 71 of 162 games by 3+ runs. That had to be incredibly profitable. Most 2.5 run lines are generally around +200

Seattle went 90-72 on the -1.5 RL in 2001. They had exactly +300 run differential on the season too. That's the most I could figure out about that team from a betting perspective. Most sites don't have data going back that far. At that record the RL should have been decently profitable assuming the lines weren't outrageously juiced, but unless some of the older bettors around here remember or someone has a database with great historical data, we'll never know. If we just assume even money, which wouldn't be the case but just for theoretical purposes, they'd be up +18 units from that season on the RL. Golden State in the NBA just broke the record for best season and they finished +6 units ATS. Profit is profit and it's nothing to discredit but those are the two best teams ever in their respective sports and if you rode them for their entire seasons you'd be up roughly a combined (theoretical) +24 units. That's a couple grand shooting $100 units but that ain't no get rich quick scheme and those were the two best teams ever. Gambling isn't easy. Cubs need to finish April better than or equal to 20-5 to hold the 2001 M's pace for the first month.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Off to a smashing success here dummies.

[JMon]

Off to a smashing success here dummies.

How many games do you predict the cubs to win this year?

[texhooper]

Lee was in a ridiculous stretch of pitching. He was throwing complete game shutouts left and right. It was insane.. Thats why it was so high

okay they werent complete game shutouts, but i just checked and he threw 4 CG out of 6 leading up to that game. Werent shutouts either but he was pitching well and getting W's

They had won 8 out of their last 9 when he pitched

this game was his first for the rangers. i believe he flew in and started that game and had been lights out all year prior to that game. and it was at baltimore. i was on him too like a dummy. i didn't know at the time he was getting off the plane and going straight to the game though or i wouldn't have taken it. from what i remember it was a pretty thorough ass kicking, i don't think there was much fluke to it. and this was when baltimore was absolute trash, showalter's first year there before they started having any success.

[swordsandtequila]

Off to a smashing success here dummies.

[iloseagain]

this game was his first for the rangers. i believe he flew in and started that game and had been lights out all year prior to that game. and it was at baltimore. i was on him too like a dummy. i didn't know at the time he was getting off the plane and going straight to the game though or i wouldn't have taken it. from what i remember it was a pretty thorough ass kicking, i don't think there was much fluke to it. and this was when baltimore was absolute trash, showalter's first year there before they started having any success.

Ummm no.. He threw a complete game. Gave up a grand slam in the 8th or 9th.. You remembered incorrectly