Anybody else thinking of blind betting the Cubs 1.5 run line every game?

[Bigdave117]

hell it's almost worth it to bet the cubs 2.5 run line game. This team is absolutely incredible - they've won 4 of 6 games so far by 4+ runs.


So far for the year


#1 in MLB in runs per game
#4 in Team OPS
#1 in Team BBs
#5 in MLB in Team ERA
#1 in Team WHIP
#4 in Bullpen ERA
#1 in Team fielding efficiency


I have them winning about 105-110 games this year. Of those 110, I don't think any more than 10% will be by 1 run. This offense is just too prolific for 1 run wins - so literally blind betting the run line could get you a 100-60 record with roughly even juice (they'll be maybe -115 against bad teams but may be as high as +150 on road against good teams)


I'm just hoping Vegas doesn't adjust too much to their dominance. I've bet on all their games so far and have won $1,500

[jjgold]

Majority of baseball games are decided by one run it is not that easy son but I hear what you mean

[Bigdave117]

Majority of baseball games are decided by one run it is not that easy son but I hear what you mean

lol wut? who told you that?


9 of the 13 games today were decided by 2+ runs. 11 of 13 games yesterday were decided by 2+ runs.


It depends on the team though - teams with explosive offences tend to either win by a lot of runs or lose. 43 of the 48 wins the Blue Jays had last year in the 2nd half were by 2+ runs. This cubs offense will be about as explosive as Toronto last year with much better pitching and probably even better defense

[RITZ]

Percentage of One-Run Games From 2004-2014

• 7,824 Games Out of 27,080 Games
• 28.89% Decided By One Run

[lakerboy]

Just do it

[Bigdave117]

Percentage of One-Run Games From 2004-2014

• 7,824 Games Out of 27,080 Games
• 28.89% Decided By One Run

that sounds about right but I think if you break that down to teams who score a ton of runs, it's probably closer to 10%


I looked at Toronto last year only around 10-13% of their wins were by 1 run in the second half

[CWD]

just bet them every game forget about the RL

if u want to spice it up put one unit on cubs and one on the over blind

[xKMACKx]

Cubs team total. Don't have to worry about the bullpen.

[ace7550]

Percentage of One-Run Games From 2004-2014

• 7,824 Games Out of 27,080 Games
• 28.89% Decided By One Run

Cubs played 55 one run games in 2015. About 1/3rd of their games were decided by one run. Ritz is right. The cubs will win a lot of games, but if you bet the run line blind you will lose a lot of nail biters.

[habitualwinning]

I was curious so I looked into it. By my count based on ESPN scores from last season the Cubs -1.5 RL went 63-99 in 2015 regular season. First half of the season they were 28-59 and second half they picked it up a bit going 35-40. It went 4-5 in the postseason. So entire year was 67-104. They sustained a 12 consecutive games losing streak on -1.5 RL as well as a 10 game losing streak and two separate 7 game losing streaks. They won 97 games last year and 33 were by 1 run, so 34%. Doesn't seem very profitable unless you have a huge bankroll and are loose with chasing or you hit a nice winning streak on it and quit. What has the Cubs -1.5 RL average price been so far this season?

[ByeShea]

This team is absolutely incredible - they've won 4 of 6 games so far by 4+ runs.

Absolutely incredible. I have to be honest - I think this has been the amazing achievement in the history of sports.

[19th Hole]

This team is absolutely incredible - they've won 4 of 6 games so far by 4+ runs.

Absolutely incredible. I have to be honest - I think this has been the amazing achievement in the history of sports.

That's correct Shea.
This may be the greatest sports or non-sports achievement in the history of mankind.
Unbelievable! This world changing event we mortals are privledged to witness in our lifetime...
Miraculous over a 6 game span. Gives me tremors.

[mikefan1034]

Losing Schwarber cost the Cubs the World Series

[JMon]

Absolutely incredible. I have to be honest - I think this has been the amazing achievement in the history of sports.

[Smoke]

stop

[Ratpack]

Losing Schwarber cost the Cubs the World Series

Playing Schwarber COST them the world series last year

[Bigdave117]

I was curious so I looked into it. By my count based on ESPN scores from last season the Cubs -1.5 RL went 63-99 in 2015 regular season. First half of the season they were 28-59 and second half they picked it up a bit going 35-40. It went 4-5 in the postseason. So entire year was 67-104. They sustained a 12 consecutive games losing streak on -1.5 RL as well as a 10 game losing streak and two separate 7 game losing streaks. They won 97 games last year and 33 were by 1 run, so 34%. Doesn't seem very profitable unless you have a huge bankroll and are loose with chasing or you hit a nice winning streak on it and quit. What has the Cubs -1.5 RL average price been so far this season?

the cubs offense this year is way, way more explosive than last year. They average around 4.3 runs last year - they're averaging 7 runs a game this year. They've done that while improving starting pitching, bullpen and defense

[d2bets]

Losing Schwarber cost the Cubs the World Series

Nah. Team has so much positional depth it's crazy. Now if they lost Rizzo then they'd have a real issue.

But even now without Schwarber....Cubs might have the best OF in baseball with Heyward, Fowler and Soler. Cubs can also easily move Bryant to LF and Baez to 3B. Plenty of options.

[d2bets]

Problem is we can see already the odds on Cubs are sky high. They're not a secret.

[Itsamazing777]

they will k a lot. It's been a few games lol, they will be exposed soon. They are good but no where near elite like some think

[jjgold]

If Cubs hit they should win division

Mets great pitchers which I guess will wear teams down

[fabric]

Playing Schwarber COST them the world series last year

[d2bets]

they will k a lot. It's been a few games lol, they will be exposed soon. They are good but no where near elite like some think

They will k far less than last year, with Heyward and Zobrist. And this is an elite offense. The bottom hasn't even gotten going yet. Soler and Russell will rake too. Strong top to bottom.

[StackinGreen]

I'm going to make a lot of money on the Cubs this year and I'm a Sox fan

The NL just isn't that good. Period.

The AL is a beast

[iloseagain]

the cubs offense this year is way, way more explosive than last year. They average around 4.3 runs last year - they're averaging 7 runs a game this year. They've done that while improving starting pitching, bullpen and defense

Theyre averaging 7 runs a game over a 6 game stretch lol.. That happens. It just does.. Can we get 20-30 games into the season before we declare them best baseball team ever?

[Bigdave117]

they will k a lot. It's been a few games lol, they will be exposed soon. They are good but no where near elite like some think

They're clearly the best team in the league, lmao if you think otherwise


They're about middle of the pack in Ks and #1 in walks

[texhooper]

this guy did

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/3246759-cubs-1-5-whenever-offered.html

[RITZ]

Tonight vs Reds -1.5 runs actually looks good in the Opener.

[jjgold]

Cincy off to a good start though

traps?

[habitualwinning]

the cubs offense this year is way, way more explosive than last year. They average around 4.3 runs last year - they're averaging 7 runs a game this year. They've done that while improving starting pitching, bullpen and defense

Even if they improved by 15 games, which would be a phenomenal feat, considering they won 97 games last season, they would still be below .500 on the -1.5 RL. You're confusing a team being good with equating to being able to profit off of gambling on them. You don't think the books already know they're good? The lines are already juiced on this team and it's still April. They're going off as -200 favs tonight against a team with an equal record to theirs on the season. The Cubs will be juiced against every team they play, except for an occasional away game against another good team or a game where the other team has their ace on the mound and they have their 4 or 5 going. You won't be able to make money off of that long term paying such high prices and sure as hell not spotting the other team runs before the game even starts. Just wait until they have a series like last season where they get swept at home by the Phillies or lose 2 straight series to the Brewers and you'll see what I mean, when you lose 3 straight >-200 bets or 7 out of 9 bets total all chalk. If it was that easy we'd all be millionaires.

[d2bets]

Even if they improved by 15 games, which would be a phenomenal feat, considering they won 97 games last season, they would still be below .500 on the -1.5 RL. You're confusing a team being good with equating to being able to profit off of gambling on them. You don't think the books already know they're good? The lines are already juiced on this team and it's still April. They're going off as -200 favs tonight against a team with an equal record to theirs on the season. The Cubs will be juiced against every team they play, except for an occasional away game against another good team or a game where the other team has their ace on the mound and they have their 4 or 5 going. You won't be able to make money off of that long term paying such high prices and sure as hell not spotting the other team runs before the game even starts. Just wait until they have a series like last season where they get swept at home by the Phillies or lose 2 straight series to the Brewers and you'll see what I mean, when you lose 3 straight >-200 bets or 7 out of 9 bets total all chalk. If it was that easy we'd all be millionaires.

Uhhhh, if the Cubs go 112-50, I would bet my ass they would end up profitable on the RL at decently shopped numbers. I agree though that they are getting respect from the bookmakers.

[jose21_us]

lol this will end well...

[habitualwinning]

Uhhhh, if the Cubs go 112-50, I would bet my ass they would end up profitable on the RL at decently shopped numbers. I agree though that they are getting respect from the bookmakers.

When's the last time a team won over 110 games though? Probably Seattle in 2001 or whenever it was. I'm not saying they won't, they should easily win 100 this year but I was trying to prove a point to this guy that thinks you can just blindly bet them the whole season at any price and win. If that's the case then why isn't everyone on this forum rich from doing that and making threads about it?

[CWD]

and they proceed to get skunked 2nite

[JMon]

Just do it

I agree lb... why all the fuss.. stop talking and fukking track it. At the same time post your fukking tickets.