just to carry you over until running good again you start feeling good in your own skin again
Comment
TheLock
SBR Posting Legend
04-06-08
14427
#37
Originally posted by GunShard
If your total bankroll is $2000.
5% of your $2000 is $100.
If you lose your $100 bet, now you have $1900.
5% of your $1900 is $95.
Now you bet $95 instead of $100 because of your total current bankroll has changed.
Bet like this and you can either slowly gain or slowly lose but can NEVER BE COMPLETELY BROKE
XXXXXX
Of course you can go completely broke doing this.
Comment
gauchojake
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
09-17-10
34131
#38
Just think about how that money would help a homeless person or a kid with cancer.
Comment
sourtwist
SBR Hall of Famer
11-10-12
9364
#39
Lot of good (bad) advice in this thread
Kid must be young, I went through it all when I was in my early 20's
Bet way over my head all the time
Won a lot, lost more
Comment
iceman02
SBR Wise Guy
03-05-12
736
#40
Originally posted by sourtwist
Lot of good (bad) advice in this thread
Kid must be young, I went through it all when I was in my early 20's
Bet way over my head all the time
Won a lot, lost more
What would ur advice be?
Comment
Tony Williams
SBR Wise Guy
06-16-14
974
#41
If you are serious, talk to close friends/family and don't get advice from a sports betting forum. 80% here are addicts that manage their addiction and probably 20% can't manage it
Comment
floridagolfer
SBR MVP
12-19-08
2762
#42
Originally posted by iceman02
What would ur advice be?
NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, under ANY circumstance, break the cardinal rule, which is: Do not risk money you cannot afford to lose.
If you have mad money, I don't care what you spend it on as long as you're not breaking the law or putting others at risk. But when you take the rent money and lose it, that's one problem that's likely to lead to another . . .
Comment
jjgold
SBR Aristocracy
07-20-05
388208
#43
good info in this thread
We all are looking at ourselves in the mirror today
Comment
KVB
SBR Aristocracy
05-29-14
74866
#44
Originally posted by GunShard
My personal rules that can improve your sports betting:
1. Money management. Bet less than 5% of your total current bankroll per bet. Use Kelly Criterion Calculator.
For example:
If your total bankroll is $2000.
5% of your $2000 is $100.
If you lose your $100 bet, now you have $1900.
5% of your $1900 is $95.
Now you bet $95 instead of $100 because of your total current bankroll has changed.
Bet like this and you can either slowly gain or slowly lose but can never be completely broke.
2. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be a compulsive gambler by betting because it's your favorite team or for the action. Do your research.
3. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession. Be discipline.
Items two and three are basically the same but I can certainly appreciate the separation of the points, and valid points they are. But point number one has serious flaws.
Again it’s not that gamblers don’t know; it’s that so much they know is wrong. This is why so many nominations and the points are given, as well as comments for a well thought out post; however, the money management plan is expensive and unwise.
I’ve posted over and over again that changing you bet size is equivalent to progressive betting and it is costly.
Let’s keep it simple and get back to basics. Take a set of 21 bets; give yourself 11 wins and 10 losses. Now take any starting bankroll amount. To keep it simple, bet 5.5% to win 5% for each bet and put the wins and losses in any order you desire. After each bet, win or lose, adjust the next bet to 5.5% of the new bankroll, just like Gunshard says.
Now, if you didn’t change the size of your bets, 52.4%, or 11 wins and 10 losses would result in breaking even.
But Gunshard’s plan requires changing the size of your bets after each play, changing the breakeven point. How much it changes depends on the percentage bet, but the higher the percentage, the worse off you are. With my example, of 5.5%, the breakeven point nears 54%.
Gunshard should be thankful for discount books and vigorish, if he uses them, as his strategy raised his breakeven point, which was offset by the reduced vig.
Again, the percentage doesn’t matter; it’s easier to use 5.5% for this exercise than Gunshard’s recommended 5%, but the results are along the same lines.
Try it again and again. No matter what order you place your 11 wins and 10 losses, after those 21 bets, you always have 97.1% of your roll left.
In fact, after 110 wins and 100 losses with 5.5% bet each time, you would be down somewhere in the neighborhood of 25% of your starting bankroll.
No wonder so many felt Gunshard’s strategy was a good one with points, noms, and comments…it’s not that gambler’s don’t know, it’s just that so much they know is wrong.
Proper money management is essential to maximizing profits or minimizing losses and essential to securing long term profits.
Comment
GunShard
SBR Posting Legend
03-05-10
10033
#45
Originally posted by GunShard
My personal rules that can improve your sports betting:
1. Money management. Bet less than 5% of your total current bankroll per bet. Use Kelly Criterion Calculator.
For example:
If your total bankroll is $2000.
5% of your $2000 is $100.
If you lose your $100 bet, now you have $1900.
5% of your $1900 is $95.
Now you bet $95 instead of $100 because of your total current bankroll has changed.
Bet like this and you can either slowly gain or slowly lose but can never be completely broke.
2. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be a compulsive gambler by betting because it's your favorite team or for the action. Do your research.
3. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession. Be discipline.
Thanks to everyone that nominated this post.
I'm just helping everyone get sharper on their sports betting.
Comment
Killer_Demo
SBR Hall of Famer
06-15-08
8409
#46
Fukk him. He quit
Comment
klemopixx
SBR MVP
10-02-14
3823
#47
When you run bad, take a break. Go the whole week or weekend without even checking scores or SBR, nothing. Everyone needs a vacation, it re-charges the batteries. Then come back slowly, tweak the way you cap games, never be afraid to learn something new. I'm always trying a new way to use stats to help me. A lot of people don't use the info that's right out here on the 'net. Do the homework!
Comment
ByeShea
SBR Hall of Famer
06-30-08
7916
#48
Originally posted by iceman02
I had a nice 9 week run with 2 weeks of losses. Im still up 5k ish.
So you're up "5k ish" while admitting addiction and looking to stop?
That's interesting.
Comment
wakefield23
SBR High Roller
03-08-13
179
#49
Asking for advice in a site full of degenerate gamblers, losers and addicted is funny.
If gambling makes your life go worse, then quit.
Maybe you should stop for a couple of weeks or a month, prove to yourself that you are not an addicted, analize what you did well and what you did wrong, change the strategies that led you to lose that money in such a short spam of time, and get some perspective of your life.
And then go back if you feel you should , or quit if you feel you should.
Gambling should be something pleasurable, not painful.
Comment
wakefield23
SBR High Roller
03-08-13
179
#50
Originally posted by KVB
Proper money management is essential to maximizing profits or minimizing losses and essential to securing long term profits.
Yes sir, you can't repeat that enough.
Comment
ChuckyTheGoat
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
04-04-11
38252
#51
Originally posted by beerman2619
Man don't quit buck that. Life is short drink and gamble!!!
Amen. Why even think about quitting? What is the other option?
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
Comment
Buffalo Nickle
SBR MVP
11-12-14
3228
#52
Gambling is an obsession. It's not an addiction. With an obsession, all you have to do is stop doing it. No cold sweats or withdrawals.
You just have to decide you aren't going to do it anymore and do other stuff. Withdraw the money and don't log in again. Don't look at the lines.
It will consume and control your life if you do it right.
Comment
Buffalo Nickle
SBR MVP
11-12-14
3228
#53
Don't buy the money management BS. Everyone using "money management" is overbetting. They are all going to lose. They just don't know it yet. You are going to lose, too. It's just a question of how much you are going to lose before you say enough is enough.
Comment
Otters27
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
07-14-07
30761
#54
Go sbr pro and just bet points
Comment
KVB
SBR Aristocracy
05-29-14
74866
#55
Originally posted by GunShard
Thanks to everyone that nominated this post.
I'm just helping everyone get sharper on their sports betting.
It's not that bettors don't know, it's that what they know is so often wrong.
Comment
jjgold
SBR Aristocracy
07-20-05
388208
#56
Good education here
I am learning
Comment
sweethook
SBR Posting Legend
11-21-07
12667
#57
you need a woman , treat your self some
Comment
KVB
SBR Aristocracy
05-29-14
74866
#58
Originally posted by jjgold
Good education here
I am learning
Some costly mis-miseducation also.
Beware and don't give up the discount vig to poor betting strategies.
Comment
INVEGA MAN
SBR Hall of Famer
01-30-08
6785
#59
I haven't made a bet since Denver won over the Steelers(I had Denver money line) I quit betting on line when it took me 2 months to get paid. I only bet in Vegas now and its a 4 hour drive. I use to bet every day but off shore is garbage. IM going to Vegas and have a free weekend thanks to Denver. I bet a lot of props before the sport season starts and that's y I don't have to bet teams every nigh The props keep me going
Comment
KVB
SBR Aristocracy
05-29-14
74866
#60
Originally posted by INVEGA MAN
I haven't made a bet since Denver won over the Steelers(I had Denver money line) I quit betting on line when it took me 2 months to get paid. I only bet in Vegas now and its a 4 hour drive. I use to bet every day but off shore is garbage. IM going to Vegas and have a free weekend thanks to Denver. I bet a lot of props before the sport season starts and that's y I don't have to bet teams every nigh The props keep me going
Vegas more expensive but very true. Funneling big cash to Nevada one way or the other is still a good way to go, especially with William Hill operating.
Getting some larger action to Bookmaker and Pinnacle seem reasonable as well.
It has been getting tougher and tougher to get winning balances home, been like that since the very beginning.
A cat and mouse game for sure.
If they legalize it everywhere, I fear, because of taxes, books may have to charge a higher commission to the winners, that juice will take a lot of lare players out of the markets...they'll put there money elsewhere.
It will soften them, but we will pay for it. I'd probably change my positions accordingly.
Comment
JIBBBY
SBR Aristocracy
12-10-09
83476
#61
Originally posted by Tony Williams
If you are serious, talk to close friends/family and don't get advice from a sports betting forum. 80% here are addicts that manage their addiction and probably 20% can't manage it
And maybe only 5% or less consistently win over time if I had to guess... Over time means year to year..
Problem is when most win big after a long winning streak they begin to place larger bets and when they lose they begin to chase with even bigger bets and then lose it all quickly.. That is the typical mold of a losing gambler over time even if they win more bets then they lose.. Bank roll management and self control is huge in gambling..
Just because you did great for a week or two doesn't mean it's gonna continue like that and you shouldn't make much larger bets.. Consistency with betting I think is very important.. When you see a gem every once in a while I think that is when you can make a larger bet and risk it.. That doesn't mean everyday though..