[HeeluvaGuy]

Might as well get one of these going. I'll have my model up and running once we have about a month's worth of games. Until then, I'll make some picks and try to write them up as I go.

Good luck to everyone this season!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here we go....

Washington State -9.5 -105 (anything below -10)
Two of my favorite things to look for early in the season are experienced teams and teams that played overseas in the Summer. Check and Check for this Wazzu team. The Cougars return 4 of their top 5 scorers, including instant double-double Josh Hawkinson. The only significant loss from last year’s team is Que Johnson, who started 25 games and averaged 11.3 points. Johnson was the team’s leading 3 point shooter, so someone will need to pick up the slack there. Wazzu also traveled to Italy this Summer, which means extra practice time. Always a good thing to start the season. Washington State will have a huge size advantage over Montana State, and the Bobcats are starting a freshman at the point. The Cougars’ size and experience should be too much tonight for a Montana State team that’s punching a little too much above its class.

[HeeluvaGuy]

South Alabama +6 -105
UNLV returns just three players from last year’s team. Not three starters. Three players. Put differently, UNLV returns 12.7 ppg and 7.9 rpg. The program is in big trouble. Not that exhibition games have a lot of meaning, but UNLV was out rebounded by New Mexico Highlands 53-26. South Alabama is not great, but the Jaguars return their top 4 scorers and, as a team, were 2^nd in the Sun Belt in 3-point % against (31.9%). USA’s starting lineup should feature 2 seniors and 2 juniors alongside RS-FR Josh Ajayi. This is largely a fade UNLV play, but there is plenty to like about this South Alabama team also. And for the history buffs, USA beat #25 FSU in its opener about four years ago.

[Terrapin Station]

Great thread, good luck.

[Louisvillekid1]

Get it!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks fellas. May have a few more. Good luck this season.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Western Carolina +23.5 -105
Not a lot to write here. Miami has to replace Sheldon McClellan, Tonye Jekiri, and Angel Rodriguez. The ‘Canes have a bunch of young talent, but it may be a while before it clicks. Again, not to read too much into exhibition games, but Miami led by only two with about 9 minutes to go against Barry, and ended up winning by 11. I expect Larranaga to tinker with lineups throughout the game, with little emphasis on the final margin of victory. WCU was an ATS darling last season, going 19-9-1. That team also lost a lot, namely do-everything forward Torrion Brummitt. The Catamounts have been #1 or #2 in the SoCon in turnovers forced per game for the past 5 seasons. If they can manage a few turnovers tonight, and convert those into points, they should be able to keep this one under 23.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-2 (-1.1)

Wazzu led by 18 with 9:37 to go but blew the cover.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Georgia St/Auburn u154.5 -105
This line looks like an overreaction to first game results. Yes Auburn scored 83 in its opener against North Florida, but Georgia State is much more deliberate than UNF. Last season the Panthers were #321 in possessions per game (65.0) and broke 80 points in a game only once. Bruce Pearl's Auburn squad will try to play fast, but I think GSU can do enough to slow this one down and keep it under 150. Kenpom has it at 148, Massey at 137, and Dunkel at 146.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Auburn game ends at 148 (and I middled the 2h total!).

2-2 (-.1)

[Louisvillekid1]

Enjoy reading your thoughts

ty

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks for stopping in kid.

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Canisius/Cleveland St o138.5 -110
Not a lot of time to write plays up today. These teams foul a lot and should be able to get us over 140.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1:00 Dayton/Alabama u145.5 -109
Sorry no time to write. Best of luck with this marathon!

[HeeluvaGuy]

I will add that the computers like the Bama under. Massey has 129, kenpom 137, and Dunkel 136.

[TheeArchBishop]

Tailing on the under. Let's get em.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I think that under qualifies as a semi-bad beat. Total was 135 with 51 seconds to go and it ended at 149. Bummer.

2-3 (-1.19)

[TheeArchBishop]

I learned a lesson here. Stay away from over/under on games in which the spread is tight, within say 5 points. The thought process is that if the game's close, there could be a foul-a-thon at the end to drive up the total much like we had here. The low was in sight with only a few mins to go until Alabama was committing fouls and Dayton hit their FT's.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I learned a lesson here. Stay away from over/under on games in which the spread is tight, within say 5 points. The thought process is that if the game's close, there could be a foul-a-thon at the end to drive up the total much like we had here. The low was in sight with only a few mins to go until Alabama was committing fouls and Dayton hit their FT's.

I know what you're saying, but it can easily go the other way in close games where the teams just play it out without fouling. Sometimes good plays lose. That's just the way it is.

ETA: The played that screwed us was the Bama turnover with about 40 seconds left. They were down 3 with possession. If hey had scored, there probably wouldn't have been any fouling.

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 gw -2 -105

[HeeluvaGuy]

That last play was a loss. Thread is:

2-5 (-3.24u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

11:00 Boise St/Oregon o136.5 -105
I don't see a reason for this to be less than a 70 possession game, and if we get that pace this should get to 140+.

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Manhattan/West Virginia o147.5 -110
I think we see 80 possessions in this one, which should be plenty to get over 147. The risk here, obviously, is that Manhattan just can't score. That's possible, but we should only need about 60 points from the Jaspers.

[doubledime]

7:00 Manhattan/West Virginia o147.5 -110
I think we see 80 possessions in this one, which should be plenty to get over 147. The risk here, obviously, is that Manhattan just can't score. That's possible, but we should only need about 60 points from the Jaspers.

Well done on this one, won't be staying up for the second one.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-1 yesterday thanks in large part to 16 missed FTs in the Oregon game.

3-6 (-3.29u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 William & Mary/Central Michigan u167 -110
Barring something unusual, I think these two will need 80 possessions to get to 167. The pace should be under that by at least a few possession so I like the under here.

[HeeluvaGuy]

9:00 Houston/LSU u152.5 -108
I'm a little concerned that LSU's offensive production is skewed down a bit because of playing in that weird ballroom in he Battle 4 Atlantis, but I think Houston's numbers are skewed up a little as a result of having played terrible defensive teams. Looking for a game with 70-72 possessions to kee us safely under.

[doubledime]

As always great reasons

[Louisvillekid1]

7:00 William & Mary/Central Michigan u167 -110
Barring something unusual, I think these two will need 80 possessions to get to 167. The pace should be under that by at least a few possession so I like the under here.

This play felt just shy as a 1x move for me. I ended up talking myself outta of it because this could be over early.

Agree you on the right side, and will root you home.

Love the thread, you seem very sharp and always enjoy your daily thoughts.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks Kid. All that matters though is winning, and I need to do more if that in here.

And, yes, that under could be real tough to watch/follow. Both teams are capable of putting up points.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Uno mas:

7:00 Chattanooga/Coastal Carolina o137.5 -110
This is a close call for me. Both teams have inflated possession stats due to some of the competition they have faced, which is a bit of a concern. However, I absolutely love the Mocs' free throw rate and free throw rate against. I think we get this one from the line tonight.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Ugh. 1-2 yesterday. I was right about the CMU pace, but those teams shot the lights out. (FWIW, I don't try to handicap hot/cold shooting. Just too hard to reliably predict.) Way off on the other lad though (Chattanooga over).

4-8 (-4.49u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

A far today I have:

7:00 EMU/Detroit o158 -110
Every way I look at this one I come up with 160+. Even at 75 possessions we can get there based on averages, but I think we see closer to 80 possessions here, which should provide some cushion. Two of the heaviest fouling teams in the NCAA helps.

7:00 IUPUI/Illinois St o138 -110
The concern here is ISU's defense. If they kee IUPUI from scoring (which they're capable of), this one could be tough. However, as long as we get to 70 possessions I think this gets to 140+.

[doubledime]

I think we are 2-0 when we agree on a total

Good luck tonight!

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:00 NIU/Indiana St o135 -110
Weird line here. These two played at NIU to start the season. The total was set at 143.5 and it finished regulation at 144 before it got up to 158 in OT. They played to 71 possessions or so in regulation. If we get there tonight, this one should crest 140, and the numbers suggest at least a 70 possession game.