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I'm tailing whatever you put on, last night was indeed grand, however I do not like this "bet the board" approach, either way, I'm tailing, but for the sake of discipline and historically, 1 or 2 plays a night works better.
Betting high volume one can lose 3 units in a night just as easily as one can win 3 units.
It's important not to get overconfident and keep your strategy in check at all times (discipline and patience), but you well know this better than me.
P.S.: I've been doing this for a long time now, and I don't want to be the boner killer, but you guys are still high from last nights winnings, be careful cause it's a dangerous place to be, just trying to be the voice of reason, even tho some might not appreciate
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Agreed. Though, I've also been doing this a long time, I can count the number of losing months I've had on one hand, the difference is, I play a lot of games, but I don't bet each play hard. As I said, I might bet on 10 games in any given day, but my bet sizes range from $20-250 (for me, 0.2 to 2.5u). The problem with posting all that volume is some people don't have the bankroll management, or the bankroll to absorb a cold night or a cold streak, so that's why, for the sake of helping people make cash money, I'd prefer to post only my top plays. Merci beaucoup.Last edited by Flea Hotel; 02-01-17, 04:16 PM.Comment -
My thoughts exactly, I haven't changed my unit since I started tailing you, and I'm way up tailing you, my strategy is to only increase units at the beginning of a season, like I plan to do on bases
My comment on the winning high was not directed at you as well, I'm just advising people to thread lightly because, even tho you are a super winning caper, what might happen is, after winning 3 units, people start to increase the units (the reason behind being losing money by not betting harder)... Anyway, it used to happen to me a while ago, and I've seem happen to lots of guys here fall hard on the sword doing this, so I'm just advising people on the safest way and guess what, we still come up plus units in the end
The way I see now, it's not about the action, I'm 100% about the money
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My models suggest a lot of playable plays. They like Washington in regulation, The Min/Cal o5 (-130), and Minnesota ML (-120). However, I only have one official play for today. I don't see Washington being held to under 3 B2B, they are home and don't want to lose two in a row, both teams played yesterday, and, of games Rask has played more than 10 games against, nobody has scored more on him than the Caps. His GAA you ask? You guessed it. 3.00. Rask isn't even confirmed for tonight. Sorry, fair play to the Bruins if they can hold the Caps to 2 or less but my money is on the Caps to win and my only official play for tonight is...
(YTD, +26.22u)
Washington Capitals OVER 2.5 (-140) 2u to win 1.43u
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Just in case it's not clear, that's 2 units to win 1.43 units, not 2.8 units to win 2.
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GL FleaComment -
Flea what's your stats based thinking for wagering 2 units to win 1.43 vs. risking 2.8 to win 2? Obviously you lose less if it doesn't hit, just curious your logic. Thanks!Comment -
Just my bankroll management. I play around 5u a night, give or take, so 2u is 2% of my bankroll, and almost half of my money that will be in play tonight. 2u is big enough, 2.8u is 2.8% of my BR and I rarely bet 3u on one play. 2 units represents 2% of my entire bankroll. My bankroll is what it is because I'm disciplined with it and with my bet sizing. I really like this play, hence, 2 units. If your bankroll is say, 2k, then I think betting $40 to win $28.60 is a solid, semi-aggressive play. I'm a bit conservative my bankroll compared to many of the SBR "pros", but I'm not an action junkie, in massive debt, have scary Russians looking for me, addicted to booze and pills, etc. That's my logic.Comment -
A source tells me Zane McIntyre is starting for the Bruins. I really feel bad if you can't use Pinnacle. -145 now at 5Dimes, -137 at Pinnacle. Those add up...Comment -
BOL guys lets make some $$$$Comment -
Does Pinnacle have as much options for hockey as 5dimes? I mean team totals, O/U etc. I saw only very basic stuff when browsing their odds without registering, maybe it only showed that much without registering... Ok, I have to just register to see it for myself
I will certainly move to Pinnacle instead of 5dimes if its thats much better odds and has all the same betting possibilities as 5dimes.
By the way I have the Washington over 2,5 goals at odds -121,95 at Coolbet, although its for 60 minutes (I assume on 5dimes its all OT too even with the team totals). Thanks for the tip! Took the bet with 1 unit, sounds gooooooood.
E.g. Minnesota ML is -133,3 on Coolbet, so I will move most of my plays out of there in any case, the difference in juice is rather huge.Comment -
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Pinnacle has everything except player props. They also easily have the best prices in the game. 8/10 they're cheaper than 5Dimes, but once in a blue moon, they aren't, hence why I use both. I have accounts and means of depositing at six or seven books.
When playing the team totals, you should never mess with regulation time only on the over (or under) 2.5 because OT is massive. Imagine if the game tonight is 2-2 after 3. Well, you've lost your bet, and I'm at worst 50%. Hence the extra juice. Always play the OT included in all team total bets UNLESS you want to play an alternative like o4 or o4.5 or something. Sadly, most books don't offer alternative TT's in NHL with OT included. Coolbet and 888 offer alternative team totals but in regulation time only. Too many games go to OT at 2-2 to play games.
Pinnacle are great. Their interface sucks but so does 5Dimes. Bet365 is my favourite to use but Pinnacle is just too cheap, and Bet365 doesn't have TT's but they have all other bets, like pucklines and in regulations, etc.
If you can, having an account with 5Dimes, Pinnacle, Bet365 and 888 will cover 99% of your betting needs.Does Pinnacle have as much options for hockey as 5dimes? I mean team totals, O/U etc. I saw only very basic stuff when browsing their odds without registering, maybe it only showed that much without registering... Ok, I have to just register to see it for myself
I will certainly move to Pinnacle instead of 5dimes if its thats much better odds and has all the same betting possibilities as 5dimes.
By the way I have the Washington over 2,5 goals at odds -121,95 at Coolbet, although its for 60 minutes (I assume on 5dimes its all OT too even with the team totals). Thanks for the tip! Took the bet with 1 unit, sounds gooooooood.
E.g. Minnesota ML is -133,3 on Coolbet, so I will move most of my plays out of there in any case, the difference in juice is rather huge.Comment -
Minnesota ML is -113 right now at Pinnacle.... That's -0.20 cheaper. That adds up fast.. Just sayin'Does Pinnacle have as much options for hockey as 5dimes? I mean team totals, O/U etc. I saw only very basic stuff when browsing their odds without registering, maybe it only showed that much without registering... Ok, I have to just register to see it for myself
I will certainly move to Pinnacle instead of 5dimes if its thats much better odds and has all the same betting possibilities as 5dimes.
By the way I have the Washington over 2,5 goals at odds -121,95 at Coolbet, although its for 60 minutes (I assume on 5dimes its all OT too even with the team totals). Thanks for the tip! Took the bet with 1 unit, sounds gooooooood.
E.g. Minnesota ML is -133,3 on Coolbet, so I will move most of my plays out of there in any case, the difference in juice is rather huge.Comment -
Yeah, they have TT in NHL.Comment -
Damn, I see that now. Damnnnnn do I see that now. The only thing neither of them has is U4,5 in regulation but I might as well just take those out from my Over/Under-system as:
1. They are not making me money
2. I will have more playable overs when I use Pinnacle/5dimes instead of Coolbet, as I get much better odds now.
3. I will have more possible profitable systems as I get better odds for everything.
Thanks for convincing me guys.
And yea I see now that the Was Over 2,5 in Reg is pretty awful. Lets hope it hits though, live and learn.Comment -
I did the math, if you're a $100/unit player, those -102s and -108s over -110s or -115s can end being a couple of grand a year. Pinnacle has -102s all the time vs -110 on 5Dimes and Sportsbook. I always check them all though, because sometimes you catch them slipping. Bet365 is the best book to live bet with, whoever or whatever is on the other side sometimes misses goals or totally miscaps, especially in the NBA. I think it was last week, Cleveland were down 11 with 4 mins left vs Boston or someone semi decent, and Kevin Love was playing like total shit, and the other team was -110. I put down 2 units asap, and the other team won by 9 or 10. Swell times.Comment -
The u4.5 in regulation is going to be almost always plus money, but then you need scores like 3-1, 2-1, 3-0, 4-0, etc. 2-2 and your ticket is done. Some of those alternative team lines are good for overs though, like 3.0 and 4.0 in reg if you expect a massive offensive showcase because it'll push if you tie the number. I took an alternative team total on the Pens a few weeks ago at o4 at +265. So if they scored 4, it'd be a push, 5 a nice win. They scored 7.Comment -
Just posted a probable winner on my Life Redefining NBA Team Totals thread for those interested in cash money. My threads are really only for people who like cash money. I do post pics of extremely hot Asian girls from time to time, but mainly, I'm a cash money guy. Just left the sub-threads for a bit... not sure what those guys are into but I don't think it's cash money. Maybe avoiding subpoenas?
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Thank you for the impending cash money......BOLComment -
Damn idk how I missed the play for 3.5 hours.
Got it at -158 damn. Spent a good solid minute debating if I wanted to win 2u or risk 2u (ended up risking 2u vs. 3.1u)Comment -
That's why I try to get my play out around 1PM EST or earlier. As soon as 5Dimes puts those lines out, I'm on it. It sucks for me, cuz Pinnacle puts them out earlier and cheaper but I post the 5Dimes lines because I know a lot of Yanks can't use Pinnacle. I like this bet a lot, sharp money got at it before you but it should cash...no idea why it was so low to begin with, I got it at -127 at Pinnacle.Comment -
Caps ML was -115 at Pinnacle when I woke up, now it's -150 at 5Dimes. Wierd shit... If you want a high risk high reward play, parlay the Caps ML with the Over 5. I think this could have a lot of scoring, despite the B2B's for both teams. Rask is still unconfirmed, I hope he plays because the Caps have scored on him a lot and goalies on the second game of a B2B usually shit the bed a bit. I'm playing the o5 for a sprinkle, I could see this at 3-2 someone after 2 periods easy..Comment -
thanks for all your work buddy!!! Lets Win!!!
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Rask finally confirmed.Comment -
I'm not saying hockey fever hasn't quite caught on here in the desert. While looking for a book to play the team totals in, most cashiers at the window prinTed me up a current list of the Stanley Cup odds when I asked if I could bet individual team totals.
. It's off shore still for me unless I have the time to go to the other end of the strip to Mandalay Bay
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