UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley (July 30, 2016)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET
Robbie Lawler vs Tyron Woodley (for welterweight title)
Rose Namajunas vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Matt Brown vs Jake Ellenberger
Francisco Rivera vs Erik Perez
Ian McCall vs Justin Scoggins

FOX Sports 2, 8 p.m. ET
Ed Herman vs Nikita Krylov
Jorge Masvidal vs Ross Pearson
Wilson Reis vs Hector Sandoval
Ray Borg vs Fredy Serrano

UFC Fight Pass, 6:30 p.m. ET
Michael Graves vs Bojan Velickovic
Damian Grabowski vs Anthony Hamilton
Cesar Arzamendia vs Damien Brown

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[JIBBBY]

Only a week away!!! ... Woodley and Matt Brown so far for me... Uncle creepy and Rivera might be live dogs as well...

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like Kowalkiewicz a lot here

[JIBBBY]

I like Kowalkiewicz a lot here

Why do you think so Hugo? Isn't Rose a high paced high volume striker that should win on points round to round? Am I missing something here?

I seem to need all the help I can get when capping these chick fights lately so that's why I'm asking..

Although, like Thrilla said in a post yesterday maybe we should always be playing the dogs in prime time UFC women fights as they seem to hit alot of the time, especially lately with belts changing hands like crazy now..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Why do you think so Hugo? Isn't Rose a high paced high volume striker that should win on points round to round? Am I missing something here?

I seem to need all the help I can get when capping these chick fights lately so that's why I'm asking..

Although, like Thrilla said in a post yesterday maybe we should always be playing the dogs in prime time UFC women fights as they seem to hit alot of the time, especially lately with belts changing hands like crazy now..

I actually give the striking advantage to KK in this matchup. In her 2 UFC fights so far, she has landed an incredible 6.17 SS/min. Rose has good striking too but she was actually outstruck by Tecia Torres in her last fight 61-46. Torres hit her consistently with kicks and punches and I think Kowalkiewicz will do that even more.

I think if Rose wins this, it will be by spamming takedowns and landing strikes from top control or sinking in a sub. However, KK has defended 25/26 TDs in her fights so far (Markos landed 1/11, Clark 0/15) so she is not easily taken down.

With Rose coming off a very close fight where she was outstruck and failed to do much damage when she did get takedowns, her being a -260 favorite against an excellent striker with good TDD makes little sense to me. The odds make this a dog-or-pass fight and I think the dog is very live.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Only a week away!!! ... Woodley and Matt Brown so far for me... Uncle creepy and Rivera might be live dogs as well...

can't see Woodley winning a war against him

he better be able to take Lawler down, I'm guessing that is what you see here

[HurlSweatPants]

Why do you think so Hugo? Isn't Rose a high paced high volume striker that should win on points round to round? Am I missing something here?

I seem to need all the help I can get when capping these chick fights lately so that's why I'm asking..

Although, like Thrilla said in a post yesterday maybe we should always be playing the dogs in prime time UFC women fights as they seem to hit alot of the time, especially lately with belts changing hands like crazy now..

She is a high volume fighter, and has some nice jitz as well, she is very active off of her back. I felt she eeked out a win against Torres in her last fight, and we all remember the beating she put on PVZ.

Karolina is also a high volume striker, almost extensively a striker, I have watched a few of her fights and she tends to control the pace and i s very comfortable on her feet, but I don't think she is dangerous enough to KO, just point and move. She has never taken down an opponent and has only been taken down once. She upset Ronda Markos and beat Heather Jo Clark in her last fight, all by UD.

I love the over on this fight, but you would have to lay the juice. I might go small on a Rose sub, that is the only way I see this fight not going to the judges. I know you were asking Hugo just though I would put in my 2 cents, and I guess we both were posting at the same time.

[Killer_Demo]

T-Wood & Matt Brown on same card lol. Insults coming at postfight press conference

[HurlSweatPants]

T-Wood & Matt Brown on same card lol. Insults coming at postfight press conference

Killer, looks like SFG are the front runners to get Chapman from what I am seeing.

[JIBBBY]

can't see Woodley winning a war against him

he better be able to take Lawler down, I'm guessing that is what you see here

I do see Woodley using his wrestling advantage, I also can see him using movement and speed when striking.. Woodley is a bit quicker then Lawler.. Probably hits just as hard too.. I don't think Woodley will get caught up in brawls with Ruthless Robbie..

Lawler excels against fighters that stand in front of him and bang it out alot.. If Woodley doesn't gas and get knocked out late I think he wins this fight by sticking and moving.. Mixing in take downs and ground pound..

[Killer_Demo]

Killer, looks like SFG are the front runners to get Chapman from what I am seeing.

Nah would have to give up too much prospects/$$$, giants are hesistant to give up their farm talent, plus we got too many big contracts to pay (cain,samarjiza,cueto,buster). Wont happen

[Hugo de Naranja]

I do see Woodley using his wrestling advantage, I also can see him using movement and speed when striking.. Woodley is a bit quicker the Lawler.. I don't think Woodley will get caught up in brawls with Ruthless Robbie..

Lawler excels against fighters that stand in front of him and bang it out alot.. If Woodley doesn't gas and get knocked out late I think he wins this fight by sticking and moving.. Mixing in take downs and ground pound..

That's the thing, I think Woodley gasses and gets knocked out late. It's hard to stick-and-move to a five round decision when you have suspect cardio.

[bjpenn85]

I do see Woodley using his wrestling advantage, I also can see him using movement and speed when striking.. Woodley is a bit quicker the Lawler.. I don't think Woodley will get caught up in brawls with Ruthless Robbie..

Lawler excels against fighters that stand in front of him and bang it out alot.. If Woodley doesn't gas and get knocked out late I think he wins this fight by sticking and moving.. Mixing in take downs and ground pound..

If i was to give you a list on the best fighters in the ufc in regards to TDD i would have said thompson, lawler and edson barboza and jose aldo. These guys dont get taken down anymore. They all did maybe for many years ago, but the last two years, i dont think anyone of them have been taken down and controlled. Its beyond ignorant to postulate that woodley has even 1% chance of employing such a gameplan. Pigs will fly before that happens.

If woodley doesnt gas? sure... he may have used his time off very well, hard to say.

sticking and moving? When did woodley ever do this? He has never done that in his whole life.

Woodley KOs people, he doesnt outsmart or pick people apart, he is the one getting picked apart if anything.

[firekillex]

lawler is going to mollywhop woodley here, woodley is a great athlete but lawler is a true fighter tko rd 3


i wanna do a huge play on matt brown but hes already at -300 unfortunately , i dont see him losing this fight though
probably add him as a main piece in a few 2-3 fight parlays

uncle creepy live dog same as KK

[JIBBBY]

If i was to give you a list on the best fighters in the ufc in regards to TDD i would have said thompson, lawler and edson barboza and jose aldo. These guys dont get taken down anymore. They all did maybe for many years ago, but the last two years, i dont think anyone of them have been taken down and controlled. Its beyond ignorant to postulate that woodley has even 1% chance of employing such a gameplan. Pigs will fly before that happens.

If woodley doesnt gas? sure... he may have used his time off very well, hard to say.

sticking and moving? When did woodley ever do this? He has never done that in his whole life.

Woodley KOs people, he doesnt outsmart or pick people apart, he is the one getting picked apart if anything.

Twood is solid and you guys aren't giving him enough due respect.. BJ did you not see TWOOD out point and out work Kelvin Gastelum in his last fight win by decision?

Twood does have pop in his punches but I think he won't brawl it out with Ruthless in this fight.. I think he will try and dart in and out more and pick his spots... If Ruthless Robbie begins to press and chase Twood, the take downs should be easier to time.. I think Twood puts Ruthless Robbie on his back or knocks him out standing... Twood has some nasty ground and pound..

Twood wrestling credentials... He's also a legit Brown belt in Jits..

• National Collegiate Athletic Association
  • NCAA Division I All-American (2003, 2005)
  • Big 12 Conference Champion (2003)
  • Big 12 Conference Championship Runner-up (2005)
  • University of Missouri Wrestling Team Captain (2003, 2004, 2005)
  
  

Twood has some nasty leg kicks too.. Just ask Carlos Condit...

[JIBBBY]

I actually give the striking advantage to KK in this matchup. In her 2 UFC fights so far, she has landed an incredible 6.17 SS/min. Rose has good striking too but she was actually outstruck by Tecia Torres in her last fight 61-46. Torres hit her consistently with kicks and punches and I think Kowalkiewicz will do that even more.

I think if Rose wins this, it will be by spamming takedowns and landing strikes from top control or sinking in a sub. However, KK has defended 25/26 TDs in her fights so far (Markos landed 1/11, Clark 0/15) so she is not easily taken down.

With Rose coming off a very close fight where she was outstruck and failed to do much damage when she did get takedowns, her being a -260 favorite against an excellent striker with good TDD makes little sense to me. The odds make this a dog-or-pass fight and I think the dog is very live.

So KK by decision prop is probably the best bet for value.. Might get that +350 or so.. Don't see Rose getting dropped...

[Hugo de Naranja]

So KK by decision prop is probably the best bet for value.. Might get that +350 or so.. Don't see Rose getting dropped...

I liked the prop for small when it opened at (+310) but it dropped to (+250) and stuck there before I could get a bet in. Since KK ML is (+220) I'm just playing it straight since I think she gets a finish at least a small percentage of the time and I'd be pissed if KK won by KO/sub and I had only bet the decision prop.

It's actually similar to the Torres line where Torres ML was around (+200) and Torres Decision (+220). Even with such a small implied chance of finishing Namajunas, Torres did have her rocked in the first.

[bjpenn85]

Twood is solid and you guys aren't giving him enough due respect.. BJ did you not see TWOOD out point and out work Kelvin Gastelum in his last fight win by decision?

Twood does have pop in his punches but I think he won't brawl it out with Ruthless in this fight.. I think he will try and dart in and out more and pick his spots... If Ruthless Robbie begins to press and chase Twood, the take downs should be easier to time.. I think Twood puts Ruthless Robbie on his back or knocks him out standing... Twood has some nasty ground and pound..

Twood wrestling credentials... He's also a legit Brown belt in Jits..

• National Collegiate Athletic Association
  • NCAA Division I All-American (2003, 2005)
  • Big 12 Conference Champion (2003)
  • Big 12 Conference Championship Runner-up (2005)
  • University of Missouri Wrestling Team Captain (2003, 2004, 2005)
  
  

Twood has some nasty leg kicks too.. Just ask Carlos Condit...

Do you feel that the wrestling credentials of woodley, that his is relevant to this discussion? Here comes woodleys takedown boom..shufle shuffle shuffle, cage walk, cage walk, im up standing under 10 sec, hi my name is robbie lawler and im impossible to take down.

Gif of a person planting his foot and rotating it into a knee injury doesnt magnify the thrown leg kick from woodley, its an immature gif, having no place in this conversation.

He can KO lawler, yes, and perhaps he can produce at least three clear knock downs who wins the fight and then win by dec. It may happen. We have only seen two three round fights with lawler, won against gastelum, and loss to rocy mac for two years ago. Thats the tape we have available. Theres a pattern. He isnt typical round winner, he throw power shots. But its fight ending power shots, shots who wins him fights, in the gastelum fight winning by dec and when he knocked out DHK. So im not counting him out...

[firekillex]

the only welterweights beating lawler are wonderboy and the winner of maia/condit would have a shot as well..
lawler is a terrible matchup for woodley here, woodley likes to throw single shots and wrestle lawler isnt getting ko'd and he isnt getting double legged and held down, at worst woodley would blast him with a double and lawler will pop right back up in 5 seconds and woodley would just be wasting his energy , hes only been in the championship rounds one time and he got absoultely destroyed in the 4th by a tekken combo from nate marquardt... lawler is becoming one of the best fighters in the championship rounds where he usually picks up his striking and output which is a recipe for disaster with woodley... id give woodley a shot in the first maybe he can connect and land a big combo to tko lawler but id almost say 70/30 lawler in my books especially with woodleys 15 month layoff and lawlers activity

[Hugo de Naranja]

the only welterweights beating lawler are wonderboy and the winner of maia/condit would have a shot as well..
lawler is a terrible matchup for woodley here, woodley likes to throw single shots and wrestle lawler isnt getting ko'd and he isnt getting double legged and held down, at worst woodley would blast him with a double and lawler will pop right back up in 5 seconds and woodley would just be wasting his energy , hes only been in the championship rounds one time and he got absoultely destroyed in the 4th by a tekken combo from nate marquardt... lawler is becoming one of the best fighters in the championship rounds where he usually picks up his striking and output which is a recipe for disaster with woodley... id give woodley a shot in the first maybe he can connect and land a big combo to tko lawler but id almost say 70/30 lawler in my books especially with woodleys 15 month layoff and lawlers activity

Pretty much my thoughts exactly. Woodley is not bad, he could definitely win this but I think Lawler wins more than the (-210) odds indicate and there are good props available for Lawler KO/TKO and late finish.

[firekillex]

Pretty much my thoughts exactly. Woodley is not bad, he could definitely win this but I think Lawler wins more than the (-210) odds indicate and there are good props available for Lawler KO/TKO and late finish.

i love the -210 probably gonna go big on it today since i think the line will move up, woodley is a beast but i dont think he beats lawler more then 2-3 times outta 10... probably throw something small on round 3/4 lawler tko as well, i could see him rocking him with a clean shot then finishing him ontop then letting out a huge roar hahah. hopefully this happens so i can go huge on wonderboy vs lawler, i think hell be lawlers kryptonite in this division , funny thing is id then give woodley a decent shot against wonderboy... its all about styles and matchups

[JIBBBY]

Do you feel that the wrestling credentials of woodley, that his is relevant to this discussion? Here comes woodleys takedown boom..shufle shuffle shuffle, cage walk, cage walk, im up standing under 10 sec, hi my name is robbie lawler and im impossible to take down.

Gif of a person planting his foot and rotating it into a knee injury doesnt magnify the thrown leg kick from woodley, its an immature gif, having no place in this conversation.

He can KO lawler, yes, and perhaps he can produce at least three clear knock downs who wins the fight and then win by dec. It may happen. We have only seen two three round fights with lawler, won against gastelum, and loss to rocy mac for two years ago. Thats the tape we have available. Theres a pattern. He isnt typical round winner, he throw power shots. But its fight ending power shots, shots who wins him fights, in the gastelum fight winning by dec and when he knocked out DHK. So im not counting him out...

BJ I respect your MMA capping skills of late but your ego is getting the best of you... I see you got your own threads going like Joshknows did.. Good for you.. I see you did well in the event last night just like I did.. Good for us.

Relax though BJ as you are no better of a capper then me as I've proved myself over the years on this forum time and time again with a solid winning percentage.. My prop play has always been rock solid also... I win money betting in this sport period and always did... I take a big hit once in a blue moon and that's it, usually happens during one month out of the year.. The other 11 months I'm kicking ass and getting paid.. Those are the facts and they are undisputed...

[Hugo de Naranja]

BJ I respect your MMA capping skills of late but your ego is getting the best of you... I see you got your own threads going like Joshknows did.. Good for you.. I see you did well in the event last night just like I did.. Good for us.

Relax though BJ as you are no better of a capper then me as I've proved myself over the years on this forum time and time again with a solid winning percentage.. I win money betting in this sport period and always did... I take a big hit once a month in a years time and that's it.. The other 11 months I'm kicking ass and getting paid.. Those are the facts and they are undisputed...

You guys might just have to "agree to disagree" lol

[firekillex]

You guys might just have to "agree to disagree" lol

good thing is the dispute/argument will be settled in 6 days

[bjpenn85]

BJ I respect your MMA capping skills of late but your ego is getting the best of you... I see you got your own threads going like Joshknows did.. Good for you.. I see you did well in the event last night just like I did.. Good for us.

Relax though BJ as you are no better of a capper then me as I've proved myself over the years on this forum time and time again with a solid winning percentage.. My prop play has always been rock solid also... I win money betting in this sport period and always did... I take a big hit once in a blue moon and that's it, usually happens during one month out of the year.. The other 11 months I'm kicking ass and getting paid.. Those are the facts and they are undisputed...

Jibby, you say a lot of weird stuff sometimes. Dont feel like this is a personal attack. Im not betting against your persona, only against a name on your betting ticket. You are not tyrone woodley and im not robbie lawler.

You can start jibbys thread and see if you can hold your own. You probably do good, as good as me? Im up for a challenge.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Y'all should jump on Karolina Kowalkiewicz at (+2xx) while you still can!

[JIBBBY]

Jibby, you say a lot of weird stuff sometimes. Dont feel like this is a personal attack. Im not betting against your persona, only against a name on your betting ticket. You are not tyrone woodley and im not robbie lawler.

You can start jibbys thread and see if you can hold your own. You probably do good, as good as me? Im up for a challenge.

BJ I'm done with forum battles.. I'm done with that crap and to be honest I'm tired of making people like JoshKnows famous so they can go tout.. I'm not even posting my results anymore on the event threads.. What's the point as long as I'm winning money..

Just for the record though after the 1st 2 fights on that card last night I literally rattled off 15 straight bet wins in a row.. Straights and props combined.. I didn't lose a single bet until the Holly Holm fight.. Alot of those hits were + odds props as well.. I don't see too many top MMA gamblers doing that if any... Thinking back I really wish I would have parlay'd some of that up ..

I didn't post "LOOK AT ME" because I don't like to brag or boast anymore, it's a waste of my time on the internet.. My last battle was with Joshknows as I retire....

BJ just keep winning buddy as I think you are a top notch MMA Capper!!!

We disagree on the Twood/Lawler fight and that's ok.. You see it completely different then I do in all aspects.. It happens.. Let's see who wins that fight though..


I wouldn't mind seeing you and Hugo going heads up though for forum bragging rights!!!

[bjpenn85]

BJ I'm done with forum battles.. I'm done with that crap and to be honest I'm tired of making people like JoshKnows famous so they can go tout.. I'm not even posting my results anymore on the event threads.. What's the point as long as I'm winning money..

Just for the record though after the 1st 2 fights on that card last night I literally rattled off 15 straight bet wins in a row.. Straights and props combined.. I didn't lose a single bet until the Holly Holm fight.. Alot of those hits were + odds props as well.. I don't see too many top MMA gamblers doing that if any... Thinking back I really wish I would have parlay'd some of that up ..

I didn't post "LOOK AT ME" because I don't like to brag or boast anymore, it's a waste of my time on the internet.. My last battle was with Joshknows as I retire....

Common jibbs, 1 thread, 1 final show down. I have a bunch of betpoints i dont use, you can have them all. 10.000 or whatever, i dont care.

Heads up, 3 months, whos the best capper?

I can guarantee ill win.

Nominate this post if you want to see bjpenn85 against the legendary sbr jibby!!

BJ just keep winning buddy as I think you are a top notch MMA Capper!!!

We disagree on the Twood/Lawler fight and that's ok.. You see it completely different then I do in all aspects.. It happens.. Let's see who wins that fight though..


I wouldn't mind seeing you and Hugo going heads up though for forum bragging rights!!!

Common jibbs, 1 thread, 1 final show down. I have a bunch of betpoints i dont use, you can have them all. 10.000 or whatever, i dont care.

Heads up, 3 months, whos the best capper?

You said it yourself, im no better than you? Well, prove it.

Public, nominate this post for a separate, legendary show down thread bjpenn85 vs jibby!

[firekillex]

Common jibbs, 1 thread, 1 final show down. I have a bunch of betpoints i dont use, you can have them all. 10.000 or whatever, i dont care.

Heads up, 3 months, whos the best capper?

You said it yourself, im no better than you? Well, prove it.

Public, nominate this post for a separate, legendary show down thread bjpenn85 vs jibby!

[JIBBBY]

Common jibbs, 1 thread, 1 final show down. I have a bunch of betpoints i dont use, you can have them all. 10.000 or whatever, i dont care.

Heads up, 3 months, whos the best capper?

You said it yourself, im no better than you? Well, prove it.

Public, nominate this post for a separate, legendary show down thread bjpenn85 vs jibby!

You trying to build up your fan support and go tout BJ? .. A showdown with the Jibster might put you over the top.. ... If you were an SBR PRO I might consider a bet point challenge for your stash.. Can't transfer that as a non pro... Been down this road with Josh..

Besides BJ you're too nice of a guy, I don't have it in me.. Start posting and saying you're the best ever, start calling me names, tell me I suck and maybe you can get my juices flowing..

It's guys like Joshknows and Nunyabidness that come on posting like they are God's gift to gambling and those are the clowns I like to bring back down to earth.. Those are the people I like to go heads up with and take their stashes or run them off the forum..Not you BJ.. I actually like you..

Barking up the wrong tree bud..
I think you and Hugo would be a great battle.. Hugo's on it... I think Hugo might work you over BJ....

SBR power struggles can be classic though..

[HurlSweatPants]

Damn Jibbs, way to drag Hugo into the fight

Don't stop posting your plays man, I think you have the props edge and I tend to follow you. I have been plus money since the Rothwell JDS card with the help of you and Hugo and a handful of others. Don't play with my money!

[JIBBBY]

Anyone liking Rivera like I am? Dude is tough as nails... Line is dropping and I don't understand why? He's +100 now.. The guy has fought the toughest in the division lately and he really needs this win now.. Can't say the same for Erik Perez..

UFC 201 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Phillips Arena - Atlanta, Georgia - PPV

Sat 7/30		1301 Francisco Rivera		+100	o1½ -200
10:30PM		1302 Erik Perez		-120	u1½ +170

[Thrilla]

- After a decade in the sport, “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler now holds the UFC welterweight title – and is tasked with defending it against powerful wrestler Tyron Woodley, who’s out to make good on his long-awaited title shot.

- Mixed media call of UFC FOX 20 & UFC 201. First question about UFC 201 asked at 4:26 min. (2nd at 13:28) WTF most question were for Holm (Biatch)

- UFC welterweight contender Tyron Woodley joined INSIDE MMA to discuss his title fight against three-time defending champion Robbie Lawler, his thoughts on returning to the octagon after an 18-month layoff and his take on the rest of the UFC welterweight division.

- Robbie Lawler met with the media to talk about his UFC 201 fight with Tyron Woodley, his opinion on Daniel Cormier vs. Anderson Silva, whether he wants to fight Conor McGregor or Nate Diaz, and a whole lot more

- Robbie Lawler interview at FOX 11 LA

- Fighters predict the UFC 201 main event between champion Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley.

[bjpenn85]

You trying to build up your fan support and go tout BJ? .. A showdown with the Jibster might put you over the top.. ... If you were an SBR PRO I might consider a bet point challenge for your stash.. Can't transfer that as a non pro... Been down this road with Josh..

Besides BJ you're too nice of a guy, I don't have it in me.. Start posting and saying you're the best ever, start calling me names, tell me I suck and maybe you can get my juices flowing..

It's guys like Joshknows and Nunyabidness that come on posting like they are God's gift to gambling and those are the clowns I like to bring back down to earth.. Those are the people I like to go heads up with and take their stashes or run them off the forum..Not you BJ.. I actually like you..

Barking up the wrong tree bud..
I think you and Hugo would be a great battle.. Hugo's on it... I think Hugo might work you over BJ....

SBR power struggles can be classic though..

Sure, were not killing each other here, its only a competition. I thought you had the balls to step up. I think youre a little bit afraid to face me 1 on 1. Sure you win money, but you loose a lot as well. I think my style of winning moderate every event beat your winning huge but then loosing huge. It will be an very interesting clash of betting styles. At the end of the day, we will all profit. We will learn even more about betting strategy, the do`s and dont. During a 3 month span, variance and other factors will be less likely to play a role. I think a lot of people also want to see this competition Jibby, give the people what they want!!