UFC in Vegas 39: Marina Rodriguez vs. Mackenzie Dern First Look at UFC Odds, Betting Picks, and Predictions

The UFC returns to the Apex Centre in Vegas for another stacked UFC Fight Night event. Two of the UFC's promising women’s strawweights will square off in the main event. Read on for our complete betting guide taking a first look at Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC picks.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez

UFC Women’s Strawweight Main Event Bout

Saturday, October 9, 2021 – 3:00 PM EDT at the UFC Apex Center

Mackenzie Dern (11-1-0)

Mackenzie Dern entered the UFC as a hot prospect to watch out for, and thus far, she’s yet to disappoint.

The hype surrounded Dern’s name stemmed from her accomplishments in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, where she’s regarded as one of the greatest female grapplers of her generation. Boasting a BJJ black belt, Dern once owned the title of World No.1 ranked IBJJF (International Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Federation) competitor, obtaining such titles as the ADCC and no-gi BJJ World Championship.

US-Brazilian fighter Mackenzie Dern. Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP.

Dern began practicing aged 3, and this should come as no surprise when her Brazilian father and stepmother are black belts in Jiu-Jitsu. Competing in the women’s adult division by the age of 14 was no coincidence, as Dern steadily progressed throughout every belt rank whilst obtaining championships at every belt level. To increase the respect within her dominant Jiu-Jitsu tenure, we should also highlight that everything Dern accomplished was before the age of 20.

Professional MMA was on the horizon, and Dern made her debut for Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) in 2016; a four-fight win streak in which two obviously involved submission finishes saw the Arizonian native switch promotions to Invicta FC. Yet another submission finish gave the UFC no choice but to assign Dern to their roster, where she’s since held a 6-1 record. Again, four of those wins came via submission, which should come as no surprise.

Mackenzie Dern MMA Accomplishments

? UFC Performance of the Night (Three times)? Most submission wins in the UFC strawweight division (Four)? Most submissions wins among women in UFC history (Four, tied with Gillian Robertson)? IBJJF World Champion (2015)? IBJJF World No-Gi Champion (2015)? UAEJJF Abu Dhabi World Pro Champion (2015)? IBJJF Pan American Champion (2015/16)? FIVE Super League Jiu-Jitsu Champion (2015)? IBJJF European Open Champion (2015/16)? Copa Podio Superfight BJJ Champion (2013)

Best Available Odds: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1307103107378302976?s=20

Marina Rodriguez (14-1-2)

Marina Rodriguez is an anomaly of the sport and quite the opposite of her opponent this weekend. Rodriguez doesn’t possess a lifelong experience to support her in-cage skillset, as she’s only been competing as a professional mixed martial artist for five years.

However, when that cage door closes and her Muay Thai offense is unleashed, nobody would realize she hasn’t been doing this since birth.

https://twitter.com/UFC_AUSNZ/status/1435150854458335233?s=20

There were nine professional fights within the Brazilian regional MMA scene. Rodriguez was prepared for the big one, and a round 1 knockout on Dana Whites Contender Series rolled out the red carpet for Rodriguez to step into the UFC octagon.

Marina Rodriguez MMA Accomplishments

? UFC Performance of the Night (One time)

Best Available Odds:

https://twitter.com/B_R_R_D/status/1353185031544598529?s=20

How Can Rodriguez Win?

From the descriptions above, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand how both of next weekend’s competitors should approach this contest.

Rodriguez will look to avoid clinch and grappling exchanges while keeping Dern on the end of her strikes. For as good as Dern is in the grappling department, her striking offense has much to be desired. The stand-up area of the fight game is where Rodriguez will excel, and the potential of a knockout, should she accomplish this game plan - is highly possible.

https://twitter.com/wmmarz/status/1443696158325415936?s=20

How Can Dern Win?

In an opposite fashion to her opponent, and as no surprise to MMA enthusiasts, Dern will be looking to ground this fight. Hanging around on the feet with Rodriguez will spell trouble for the former Jiu-Jitsu World Champion, but should this fight enter her realm, the elite level of BJJ she possesses should ultimately provide a dominant performance for Dern.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez Betting Picks

The available odds at Sportsbook Review opened with Mackenzie Dern as a -185 favorite, but the wagers have been coming in on Rodriguez - moving the line to -140. I cannot blame bettors for wagering on either side and in this coin toss kind of matchup, placing a bet on the +160 underdog is an intelligent move.

With that said, I still believe the right side is on the Brazilian. Rodriguez showed the ability to deal with highly talented wrestlers in Carla Esparza. Despite losing said bout in a close split decision, looking at Esparza’s face post-fight, you’d never have guessed she won.

Dern’s boxing does present power, but the technicality just isn’t there. I anticipate that Rodriguez can secure more advantageous positions throughout the twenty-five-minute time limit by simply treating the floor like hot lava. Whenever this fight plays out on the feet, Rodriguez is going to dominate. Between her range control, selection of shots, and vicious mentality – I have to side with the underdog causing an upset versus the Jiu-Jitsu practitioner.

UFC Vegas 39 Pick: [1u to win 1.30u]

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.