UFC 275: Shevchenko vs. Santos MMA Odds and Picks

The women's flyweight title hangs in the balance when Taila Santos challenges Valentina Shevchenko in the co-main event of UFC 275 on Saturday night. Read on for our Shevchenko-Santos picks and predictions.

Valentina Shevchenko has viciously turned away all challengers since capturing the vacant flyweight championship at UFC 231 in December 2018. In her latest title defense, Shevchenko buried Lauren Murphy in an avalanche of elbows and punches, dispatching her overmatched foe in the final minute of the fourth round after dominating essentially every second of the fight.

No stranger to scintillating finishes, Santos punched her ticket to a title shot with a submission victory over Joanne Wood back in November 2021. Santos dropped Wood with multiple heavy shots before snaking in a fight-ending rear-naked choke with 11 seconds remaining in the opening stanza.

Will Shevchenko continue her reign of terror over the 125-pound division? Or will Santos upset the apple cart and claim her spot at the top of the flyweight food chain?

Here are my picks and predictions for the UFC 275 flyweight championship matchup between Shevchenko and Santos (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Shevchenko vs. Santos Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, June 11, 10 p.m. ET (main card)TV: ESPN +, PPVLocation: Singapore Indoor Stadium, Singapore

Shevchenko vs. Santos Odds Analysis

The champion opened as a massive -600 favorite, and that line has moved slightly to -630 over at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you're looking to mine some value out of a Shevchenko victory, you should consider backing a winning method.

Those looking to back the underdog can snatch Santos up at +450.

Valentina Shevchenko Betting Profile

It's hard to dodge the "Bullet." A terrifyingly well-rounded fighter, Shevchenko is quite possibly the most technically gifted striker in the division, who just so happens to be a high-level judoka. That means she can light opponents up on the feet, toss them on their head, and snatch a fight-ending submission.

As dominant a champion as you'll find in the UFC, Shevchenko has only lost once in the past six years, dropping a decision to former two-division overlord Amanda Nunes way back in 2016. Since then, she's rattled off eight victories in a row, including triumphs over Murphy, Liz Carmouche, Jennifer Maia, Katlyn Chookagian, and former strawweight champions Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Jessica Andrade.

Holding an edge in the technical striking department, Shevchenko should patiently launch combos at Santos, who will likely become more and more aggressive if she can't find her opponent's chin. Once a potentially frustrated Santos becomes too aggressive, "Bullet" can use her crisp counter-striking to repeatedly pop the Brazilian on her way in.

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Taila Santos Betting Profile

Although not quite as lauded as her counterpart, Santos combines excellent Muay Thai striking with slick submission grappling. Thirteen of her 19 career victories have been stoppages, so she's no stranger to violently finishing a fight.

Bursting into the UFC with a victory on Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, Santos lost her official Octagon debut at UFC Fight Night 144 back in 2019, but followed that up with four straight wins. She counts Molly McCann, Roxanne Modafferi, and the aforementioned Wood among her growing list of victims.

Although she's unlikely to win a technical striking bout with Shevchenko, if she throws heavy flurries, she might be able to catch the champion with something nasty.

Shevchenko vs. Santos Picks

Shevchenko (-625 via Caesars)?????Shevchenko to win by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (+130 via DraftKings)????

Shevchenko vs. Santos Predictions

Shevchenko (-625)

Statistically, Santos and Shevchenko have similar success in significant strikes landed, striking accuracy, and takedowns, but the champion has a distinct strength of schedule advantage, so those statistics don't tell much of the story. Quite simply, "Bullet" is in a class of her own at 125 pounds. Shevchenko is a better technical striker, and her vaunted judo will allow her to dictate where the fight ends up.

Although I don't expect Santos to completely fold under pressure, I just don't see too many paths to victory for the Brazilian challenger. At this point, besting Shevchenko is a bridge too far for Santos, and the champion will emerge victorious via …

Shevchenko to win by KO/TKO/DQ/submission (+130)

The champion is a certified killer. Shevchenko has violently racked up 15 stoppages in her 22 career victories, polishing off three of her last four victims inside the distance. And she's not just a one-trick pony, with eight of her 15 stoppages coming via KO/TKO, while the other seven are submissions. I don't expect this bout to make it to the judge's scorecards, and there's tremendous value in backing the champion to close this out before the final bell.

Where to Bet on Shevchenko-Santos Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Shevchenko-Santos picks made on 6/10/2022 at 7:15 a.m. ET.