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UFC Predictions, Odds for Saturday: Top Picks for UFC 294

Themi Alexis

Last Updated: October 21, 2023 2:43 PM EDT • 4 min 59 sec read.

UFC predictions
UFC predictions

The UFC's return to Abu Dhabi features a pair of exciting short-notice fights, and we've examined the odds from our best sports betting apps to provide our best bets and UFC picks for UFC 294 on Saturday.

Challenger Alexander Volkanovski has taken the place of Charles Oliveira in the main event of UFC 294. Oliveira sustained a severe cut during sparring just two weeks before the fight, leading to his withdrawal. Volkanovski is now set to face lightweight champion Islam Makhachev in a highly anticipated rematch.

In their February showdown at UFC 284, Makhachev secured a unanimous decision victory over Volkanovski. Following that bout, Volkanovski bounced back by effectively defending his featherweight title, delivering a third-round TKO against Yair Rodriguez at UFC 290 in July. In contrast, Makhachev is making his return to Abu Dhabi's Etihad Arena, where he submitted Oliveira to claim his championship one year ago. He enters UFC 294 with an impressive 12-fight win streak.  

In the card's co-headliner, ex-welterweight champ Kamaru Usman steps up from 170 pounds to take on the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev in the middleweight division. Usman is filling in for the ailing Paulo Costa, who withdrew due to a staph infection with only 10 days' notice, as he looks to recover from back-to-back losses to the current welterweight champion, Leon Edwards. Chimaev returns to action after 13 months following his submission victory over Kevin Holland at UFC 279. He maintains an undefeated record in six fights at the UFC level.

Please check out our UFC 294 picks and predictions to accompany our best bets for Saturday’s UFC 294, and check out our Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 Predictions (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UFC 294 predictions

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UFC 294 schedule & odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Main card (2 p.m. ET):

Prelims (10 a.m. ET):

Top picks for UFC 294

Fight line: Nurmagomedov ML vs. Gafurov (-218 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Nurmagomedov clashes with Gafurov as a comfortable favorite at our best sports betting sites, and for good reason. Not only is Nurmagomedov the taller, rangier fighter, but he also owns the edge in strength of schedule, having walked to the Octagon eight times, while Gafurov has competed in the big show only once.

The 31-year-old Nurmagomedov knows how to rely on his active kicking game to keep foes on the end of his range, and he isn’t above shooting for the occasional takedown. With Gafurov likely aiming to bring the action to the mat, I see Nurmagomedov frustrating him with some clever distance striking and maybe even peppering in a takedown or two of his own to chew the clock and cruise to a seventh UFC victory.

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Upset: Usman ML vs. Chimaev (+270 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The line on this short-notice booking is just too compelling to pass up. Usman and Chimaev each boast excellent wrestling and solid wallops in their mitts, but the former remains a cut above the competition the latter has faced thus far, even at age 36. The former welterweight king’s jab is a piston, and I expect him to throw it early and often to keep Chimaev honest and prevent another swift start from the Chechen.

Should Chimaev aggressively pursue takedowns early, I trust Usman’s lauded defense (97%) to hold up, and once the pair exit the first round, look for Usman to open up with his hands on a tiring Chimaev and steadily land the cleaner, harder shots to claim the “0” on his foe’s record.

Prop bet: Aliskerov by KO/TKO vs. Alves (+148 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

A solid puncher with fight-ending power, Aliskerov draws a natural welterweight who’s been outstricked in each of his six UFC losses. The Russian boasts a crisp one-two and lethal left hook, something Phil Hawes learned the hard way in May, and it shouldn’t be long before he treats Alves to a similar fate.

The Brazilian’s Muay Thai stylings are nothing to scoff at, but I doubt he can keep Aliskerov on the back foot, and he isn’t anyone’s idea of a formidable takedown artist. In short, I see Aliskerov giving Alves an early taste of leather that will render him gun-shy before treating him a la Hawes with a hellacious, fight-ending combination.

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Winning method: Mokaev by submission vs. Elliott (+230 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

Mokaev has submitted three of his four UFC conquests and earned half his 10 career wins by tap out, while Elliott has tapped four times in the Octagon and will likely give Mokaev the kind of fight he wants.

Elliott is easily the prospect’s toughest test to date, but his strength lies in his funky grappling, takedowns, and scrambles, and I believe Mokaev can hang with the veteran on the mat even if he isn’t first to shoot. Should Mokaev’s slick grappling cause Elliott to create some of his patented scrambles, look for the former to capitalize on them and squeeze the latter’s neck in transition to secure a sixth career tap out.

Parlay: Basharat by decision (-165) + Aliskerov by KO/TKO (+120) + Ankalaev vs. Walker doesn’t go the distance (-200) = +430 via DraftKings ⭐⭐⭐

This week’s parlay includes a decision win for the undefeated Basharat and a prop bet on a light heavyweight clash between Ankalaev and Walker, in addition to the Aliskerov prop bet listed above.

Basharat is a willing striker and solid grappler who could put Henry on his back and chew the clock for a fourth straight win on points, while Ankalaev and Walker boast 26 knockouts between them and shouldn’t need the full 15 to settle their battle.

UFC best bets made 19/10/2023 at 12:04 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Themi Alexis
Themistoklis Alexis is a writer and editor based in Montreal, Quebec. He earned his degree in Journalism from Centennial College in Toronto before working for theScore as an MMA news editor from 2016 to 2018, contributing news stories, fight recaps, and features. His introduction to the sport came in 2007 with Randy Couture's thrashing of Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 74, and he's since spent countless hours watching people in far better shape than him sling zingers in four-ounce gloves. When he isn't getting his regularly scheduled dose of on-screen ultraviolence or losing sleep over his weekly MMA picks, he enjoys reading, watching old films, sketching, and podcasting about filmmakers from bygone eras of cinema.