UFC Odds & Best Bets Today: Song vs. Simon Schedule, Picks

A matchup between ranked bantamweights Yadong Song and Ricky Simon headlines Saturday's UFC Fight Night event from Vegas. Read on for our best bets for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.

Seven months after failing to top Cory Sandhagen, lauded bruiser Yadong Song gets back in the saddle to face a streaking Ricky Simon. The 25-year-old Song had won three straight before taking the L from Sandhagen by TKO this past September, and he now heads to Vegas with a UFC record of 8-2-1 and five stoppages in the Octagon to his name.

As for Simon, the 30-year-old has won five straight and all but two of his 10 promotional bouts, with his last victory coming via submission against Jack Shore in July.

In the middleweight co-main event, Brazil’s Caio Borralho looks to improve his UFC record to a spotless 4-0 opposite Michal Oleksiejczuk, who’s earned two straight first-round knockouts since moving down from light heavyweight last summer.

With all that said, here are our best bets for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UFC Fight Night schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Main Card (7 p.m. ET):

• Yadong Song (+100) vs. Ricky Simon (-120)
• Caio Borralho (-365) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+300)
• Rodolfo Vieira (-230) vs. Cody Brundage (+195)
• Julian Erosa (-150) vs. Fernando Padilla (+130)
• Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-175) vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta (+150)
• Josh Quinlan (-175) vs. Trey Waters (+150)

Prelims (4:30 p.m. ET):

• Martin Buday (-125) vs. Jake Collier (+105)
• Cody Durden (+115) vs. Charles Johnson (-135)
• Stephanie Egger (-300) vs. Irina Alekseeva (+250)
• Journey Newson (-180) vs. Marcus McGhee (+155)
• Hailey Cowan (+140) vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (-165)

UFC Fight Night best bets

• Fight line: Buday ML vs. Collier (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Upset: Song ML vs. Simon (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Winning method: Song by KO/TKO or decision vs. Simon (+120 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
• Prop bet: Erosa vs. Padilla Under 1.5 rounds (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Parlay: Buday (-125) + Quinlan vs. Waters Under 1.5 rounds (-130) + Erosa vs. Padilla Under 1.5 rounds (+120) = +601 (via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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Top picks for UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon

Fight Line: Buday ML vs. Collier (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Yes, Martin Buday often takes one to give one, but that shouldn’t pose too great a problem against Jake Collier, a veteran who competed at middleweight in a past life and doesn’t pack much of a wallop.

Collier has fallen to aggressive bruisers on a handful of occasions in the Octagon, and Buday fits that very same bill at 4.59 significant strikes landed per minute. If Collier can’t outmuscle Buday up close and get the action to the mat, I see Buday plodding forward, eating a little leather, and dishing out more of it to bring his UFC record to a pristine 3-0.

Upset: Song ML vs. Simon (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Simon’s win streak is nothing to sneeze at, but he’s yet to face a banger of Song’s ilk in his UFC stint, one who eats as many significant strikes as he lands, and has betrayed a habit of walking into the occasional right hand in the past.

Granted, he could ride his wrestling to a grueling win over the dynamic Song, but he’ll have to earn his takedowns with strikes, which will give Song enough opportunity to exploit Simon’s flaws on the feet. All this to say, Song’s 71% takedown defense will be put to the test, but I’m banking on him to stay upright long enough to outstrike a game Simon and get back in the win column.

Winning Method: Song by KO/TKO or decision vs. Simon (+120 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐

In Simon’s two UFC defeats, he waltzed right into a fight-ending right hand from Urijah Faber and was handily outstruck in a decision loss to Rob Font. I believe he can lose via either of those methods come fight night, depending on how long he and Song stay in close quarters.

With Simon aiming to chew the clock in the clinch and score takedowns, Saturday’s headliner could turn into a five-round battle of equal parts grappling and striking. But with Song boasting granite mitts and four knockouts in eight UFC wins, it isn’t unlikely that he puts Simon’s lights out. Whether this matchup amounts to a grueling five-round battle or a firefight, look for Song to routinely land the more damaging blows and maybe even put Simon away.

Prop Bet: Erosa vs. Padilla Under 1.5 rounds (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Not only does Julian Erosa win big and lose big, he’s also gone less than a round-and-a-half on 15 occasions, while Fernando Padilla makes his first walk to the Octagon with nine first-round stoppages to his name and another two that have come in the second stanza.

In other words, these two will be looking to put each other away from the opening bell, and with a whopping 35 stoppage wins between them, it shouldn’t be long before the better man is determined. Both Erosa and Padilla can finish with their mitts and on the mat, so if one of them isn’t left seeing stars, he’ll likely be tapping or venturing off to dreamland.

Parlay: Buday (-125) + Quinlan vs. Waters Under 1.5 rounds (-130) + Erosa vs. Padilla Under 1.5 rounds (+120) = +601 (via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

UFC best bets made 4/29/2023 at 12:11 a.m. ET.

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