UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus MMA Odds and Picks

Kyle Smith

Last Updated: December 17, 2021 4:17 AM EST • 2 min 38 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

HOUSTON, TEXAS - FEBRUARY 07: Derrick Lewis yells on the scale during the UFC 247 ceremonial weigh-in at Toyota Center on February 07, 2020 in Houston, Texas. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by RONALD MARTINEZ / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

A pair of knockout artists are set to violently collide on Saturday night when Derrick Lewis and Chris Daukaus square off in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus. We break it down with our Lewis-Daukaus UFC picks.

Someone is going to sleep.

Blessed with anvils where his fists should be, Lewis has solidified his spot in the upper echelon of the heavyweight division through sheer toughness and ridiculous, jaw-melting power. Although his resume is littered with big names, he has never been able to reach the apex. He lost an interim title bout against Cyril Gane at UFC 265 in August.

Having recently quit his job as a police officer to focus on MMA full-time, Daukaus is looking to establish himself as a heavyweight title contender, and a convincing win over the third-ranked Lewis would do just that. In his last trip to the Octagon, Daukaus sent Shamil Abdurakhimov into the shadow realm with a blistering right hand and a few follow-up coffin nails, notching the TKO victory less than two minutes into the second stanza.

A win for Lewis would keep him firmly entrenched among the elite at heavyweight, while a Daukaus victory would mint a new potential title contender.

Here are my UFC picks and predictions for Saturday’s heavyweight main event between Lewis and Daukaus (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lewis vs. Daukaus Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 18, 7 p.m. ET (main card)TV: ESPN+Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Lewis vs. Daukaus Odds Analysis

Although Lewis has been tested against the division’s best, the more technically sound Daukaus actually opened as a -160 favorite with some books; the line has moved to -140 at DraftKings, and -130 at FanDuel Sportsbook. For those looking to bet on a live dog that can end the bout with a single punch, Lewis can be scooped up at +106 at FanDuel, and +120 at DraftKings.

Lewis Betting Profile

Lewis hits like a freight train carrying dynamite.

Although he’s not the most technically gifted striker, Lewis often makes up for that by walloping his opponents really, really, ridiculously hard. With 20 of his 25 wins coming via KO/TKO, Lewis owns victories over Curtis Blaydes, Alexander Volkov, Alexey Oleynik, Travis Browne, Marcin Tybura, and current UFC heavyweight kingpin Francis Ngannou.

Despite an excellent resume with significant victories, Lewis’ “slanging and banging” style, and shallow gas tank often causes him to falter against the tippy-top of the division. This might pose a problem against Daukaus on Saturday, who is the more agile, technical striker.

Daukaus Betting Profile

Like Lewis, Daukaus can put you to sleep with one punch.

His resume may not contain too many marquee names, but Daukaus is a perfect 4-0 since entering the UFC, with all four of those victories coming via KO/TKO. Capturing “Performance of the Night” bonuses in his last three bouts, Daukaus completely ran roughshod over Rodrigo Nascimento, Aleksei Oleinik, and Abdurakimov, with none of those bouts reaching the third round.

Daukaus may not possess Lewis’ raw strength, but he’s a more technical striker, and that might give him an advantage, should the fight drag into deeper waters.

Lewis vs. Daukaus Picks

Lewis (+120) ???Lewis via KO/TKO (+175) ???

Lewis vs. Dauakaus Predictions

Lewis (+120)

I just can’t ignore Lewis’ experience, toughness, and sheer power, especially as the underdog.

"The Black Beast" has stood across the cage against some of the best heavyweights of the last decade, and has even claimed victory against a few of them. Sure, he could find himself in trouble should his gas tank completely hit “E” before he can deliver a knockout blow, but I think it’s more likely that he comes out on top, and the best value can be had via his winning method.

Lewis via KO/TKO (+175)

Lewis’ terrifying power can suddenly explode at any moment, even if he looks completely gassed. I expect his chin to hold up against Daukaus long enough to deliver a devastating right hand that will completely separate the former cop from his consciousness.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Lewis-Daukaus picks made 12/16/2021 at 9:50 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Kyle Smith

A sportswriter for more than a decade, Kyle Smith was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.