UFC Fight Night: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Gerald Meerschaert MMA Odds and Picks

UFC Fight Night has a loaded card, with one of the prelims pitting 13-3 Dustin Stoltzfus against 33-14 Gerald Meerschaert. We have you covered with our Stoltzfus-Meerschaert picks.

Stoltzfus has accumulated an impressive 13-3 record as a professional, but he lost his first two fights in the UFC. He's on his third opponent for this card after two fighters were scratched out. The 30-year-old drew a tough foe as he looks to prove his worth to the organization. 

Meerschaert is sitting at 33-14 as he has ripped off two consecutive wins in 2021. He's a master finisher, with only two decision wins out of his 33 career victories. He'll work toward continuing that streak against the unproven Contender series graduate.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday's UFC middleweight bout between Stoltzfus and Meerschaert (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Stoltzfus vs. Meerschaert Fight Info

Date/Time: Dec. 18, 2021, 4 p.m. ET (prelims)TV: ESPN+ Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Stoltzfus vs. Meerschaert Odds Analysis

The line has remained steady around -230 in favor of Meerschaert since opening. There has been little reason for optimism for Stoltzfus since he has had no success since the Contender series last summer. A win from Stoltzfus wouldn't be stunning but few can point toward his UFC experience as a reason for betting on him. 

The odds for a decision win are justifiably strong. Stoltzfus is +380 to win by decision, and Meerschaert is +300. This fight is most likely to end via submission by Meerschaert, according to the winning method odds.

Stoltzfus Betting Profile

The 30-year-old Stoltzfus is as break-even of a striker as they come. He averages fewer significant strikers per minute (3.68) as his hits taken (4.00). His accuracy is mediocre, with a 41% strike rate. His defense is 46%, so again he's not a net positive while on his feet.

Stoltzfus' 75-inch reach should be a solid advantage more than it has proven to be; however, his sample size is small. The orthodox fighter should work inside of Meerschaert's 77-inch reach and look to negate some of the grappling disadvantages. Frankly, Stoltzfus needs to show up a different fighter to win this bout. There's little we've seen to justify taking any of his props.

Meerschaert Betting Profile

It's clear that Meerschaert has the potential to be one of the most entertaining fighters in the division. His strike rate isn't particularly impressive or much of a positive, but he gives himself a better chance of surviving against boxers thanks to stout defense (52%). His lone striking finish in the UFC came via TKO from kicks on the Ultimate Fighter in 2017.

Meerschaert is a strong grappler, though. His go-to anaconda choke is particularly dangerous, and his rear-naked choke has also been a winning move over the last two years. Taking him to win by submission is almost a must.

Stoltzfus vs. Meerschaert Picks

Meerschaert (-225) ????Winning method: Meerschaert by submission (+130) ???

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Stoltzfus vs. Meerschaert Predictions

Meerschaert (-225)

The only reason the odds aren't more in favor of Meerschaert is the fact he tends to lose big. Three of his UFC losses were by TKO/KO, and one other was by submission. This of course gives Stoltzfus a reasonable chance to win but only in the vein that anyone can win any given fight.

The smart money, despite the relatively unattractive payout, is on Meerschaert. He has the ability to pull a sudden victory out of nowhere thanks to his aggressive mindset. I'm willing to lay down a unit or two he'll earn his third straight victory.

Meerschaert by submission (+130)

I don't love the return on the most obvious form of victory for Meerschaert, but oddsmakers have correctly identified the biggest area of strength and weakness for these fighters. Stoltzfus isn't enough of a grappling or striking threat for a stoppage. That makes the other attractive prop bet to select is Stoltzfus by decision for +380, or Meerschaert by KO/TKO for +550.

As we've covered, though, a decision would take an unusual showing from these two fighters. The incentive for each is to go for broke as they each need solid, impressive wins in order to extend their respective UFC careers.

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Stoltzfus-Meerschaert picks made 12/15/2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET.