UFC 271: Lewis vs. Tuivasa MMA Odds and Picks

Following a week in which middleweight fights served as the co-main and main events of the evening, the division once again takes center stage for UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2. Derrick Lewis meets Tai Tuivasa in a heavyweight appetizer brawl, and we have our top UFC 271 picks.

When Lewis (26-8-0) and Tuivasa (14-3-0) step into the Octagon on Saturday night in the co-main event, the atmosphere inside the Toyota Center will be electric. With a combined 34 knockouts between their 41 fights, many of which have come in the early rounds, both fighters are well aware of the other's ability to put them to sleep. Let’s take a closer look at how things might play out at UFC 271.

Here are my Lewis-Tuivasa picks and predictions for Saturday’s heavyweight showdown (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lewis vs. Tuivasa Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Feb. 12, 10 p.m. ET (main card)TV: PPV/ESPN+Location: Toyota Center, Houston, TX

https://twitter.com/johnewing/status/1492513828961243138

Lewis vs. Tuivasa Odds Analysis

When this line opened up a few weeks ago, Lewis was listed as the -146 favorite and the action has largely been one-sided since. "The Black Beast" is now as steep as -200 at BetMGM and as low as -180 at DraftKings. For Tuivasa backers, the best number available is at BetMGM (+165).

In what will be a three-round fight, the Over/Under is set at 1.5 with the Under expectedly shaded heavily as -190 is the consensus odds. It's the -175 favorite side of the lin at DraftKings.

Derrick Lewis Betting Profile

It has been one massive payday after the next for Lewis over the past couple of years as he headlined four straight events beginning in the summer of 2020 at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik. Starting with that second-round TKO of Oleinik, Lewis has won three of those four fights with his only loss coming to Ciryl Gane right here at Honda Center last August. He'll be attempting to get another crack at the title with his second straight win.

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1490716986237542400

Taking a look at his metrics, the third-ranked heavyweight in the world is there for good reason. While he’s rightfully known for his knockout power, the blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is sneaky good when it comes to his ground game. He enters the week ninth among active heavyweights in control time and comes into Saturday with 0.48 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Tai Tuivasa Betting Profile

The 11th-ranked contender in the division, Tuivasa’s trademark "shoey", where he drinks a beer out of a fan's shoe following his wins, has made him a fan favorite and forced the UFC's hand in giving him this shot. Joining the promotion in 2017, Tuivasa has had an up and down stint that included a three-fight losing skid from December 2018 to October 2019.

Since then, however, "Bam Bam" has rattled off four straight wins, including three that finished via KO in the first round. Currently No. 2 in the heavyweight division with 1.39 knockdowns per 15 minutes, and No. 3 in significant striking accuracy (54.46%), Tuivasa can strike with the very best of them.

Lewis vs. Tuivasa Picks

Derrick Lewis to win (-180) ??Fight Starts Round 2 (+100) ???

SEE ALSO: Adesanya vs. Whittaker Picks

Lewis vs. Tuivasa Predictions

Lewis to win (-180)

Despite the juicy odds, I think we're still getting Lewis at a discount. Still, the only heavyweight fighter in the UFC to have not lost to current champion Francis Ngannou, Lewis has stood (and beat) the best fighters this sport has to offer. 

What he lacks in volume striking that Tuivasa has, he makes up for in defense. Coming into Saturday, Lewis is absorbing just 2.48 strikes (vs. 3.51) per minute; a critical metric when it comes to the heavy hands of this division.

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Fight starts Round 2 (+100)

In what is far and away the biggest fight of Tuivasa’s career, I expect the Australian fighter to come into the cage as conservative as he ever has in an attempt to analyze the sneaky athletic Lewis. Despite three of his last four winning fights ending in Round 1, 50% of his fights with the company have not. None of those last four fights were against the skill level he’ll see on Saturday.

For Lewis’ part, only one of his fights since 2016 ended in the first round, despite the narrative around his "quick work" knockouts. That one? His first-round knockout of Chris Daukaus in December. With some potential recency bias in play here, look for this second round to start as scheduled.

Where to Bet on UFC 271

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks for odds boosts:

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SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Lewis-Tuivasa picks made 2/9/2022 at 6:28 p.m. ET