Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico Prediction: UFC 319 Best Bets, Expert Picks & Odds
Lerone Murphy aims to spoil Aaron Pico’s first Octagon showing at UFC 319, and my Murphy vs. Pico prediction expects the Englishman to do just that.
This featherweight co-main event comes four months after the former’s last appearance, which resulted in a unanimous decision over Josh Emmett. The victory brought Murphy’s UFC record to a solid 8-0-1, leaving the betting underdog (+154 at the best UFC betting sites) unbeaten in 17 career contests.
Pico, on the other hand, makes his maiden voyage to the octagon after spending his entire career under the Bellator banner. The lauded Pico last competed 18 months ago, ending his Bellator stint with a first-round TKO of Henry Corrales.
The main card gets underway at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN+ PPV) from the United Center in Chicago. For more on UFC 319’s marquee matchups and action, have a look at our UFC picks, including UFC predictions and best bets.
📊 Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico UFC odds
Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday.
| Lerone Murphy | Method of victory | Aaron Pico |
|---|---|---|
| +154 | Win outright | -185 |
| +650 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +330 |
| +3000 | Win by submission | +900 |
| +330 | Win by decision | +200 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
If you’re looking for straight moneyline action on Saturday’s co-headliner, DraftKings gets the nod, offering superior value on the underdog Murphy over many of the best sports betting sites.
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🥊 UFC 319 predictions: Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico preview
✅ Prediction: Murphy to beat Pico
📊 Best odds: +154 via DraftKings ($10 to win $15.40)
Strength of schedule can’t be quantified, but it will play a pivotal role in this matchup.
Pico was largely nursed through his Bellator stint, but Murphy has faced and beaten solid competition in Emmett, Edson Barboza, and Dan Ige, to name a few. Averaging 4.53 significant strikes per minute and dodging over 60% of the opposition’s, Murphy has developed into a clean, methodical striker. I expect him to hold steady throughout this contest, while Pico - for all his natural talent - is prone to the occasional mental lapse, and it’s cost him dearly in the past.
The UFC newcomer boasts a solid wrestling pedigree, so don’t be surprised if he pursues takedowns early, although the battle-tested Murphy stuffs over half his competition’s shots and is no stranger to peppering in a few takedowns himself. Statistics aside, this UFC 319 prediction comes down to in-cage maturity, and it’s Murphy who owns the edge.
Oddsmakers haven’t been as respectful of Murphy’s gifts, as he entered fight week the co-main event’s underdog and remains one as of this morning. As a result, the payout on a ninth straight W for Murphy is tempting, with DraftKings offering +154 odds.
💰 UFC 319 predictions: Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico best bet
✅ Best bet: Murphy by decision
📊 Best odds: +260 via FanDuel ($10 to win $26)
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Methodical fighters often require the judges’ participation to claim their victories, and Murphy is one of them, having gone the distance in five straight and seven of his nine UFC showings. Furthermore, as a boxer-wrestler, he gets a similar stylistic matchup in Pico, which should bring out his usual, risk-averse self once the cage door shuts.
With a steady, technically proficient striking output and excellent defense, Murphy has made a career of hitting without being hit. I expect him to do more of the same, ride his two-inch edge in reach, and maybe chew the clock with some wrestling to claim a sixth straight and 10th career decision win.
While DraftKings is our book of choice on moneyline action, our best bet resides with FanDuel, edging out the former at +260 to +250.
🆚 Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico tale of the tape
| Lerone Murphy | Aaron Pico | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 28 |
| 5'9" | Height | 5'8" |
| 146 lbs. | Weight | 145 lbs. |
| 73" | Reach | 71" |
| 16-0-1 | Record | 13-4 |
🔮 UFC 319 expert picks
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- Murphy vs. Pico prediction
📡 How to watch Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico: UFC 319
📅 Saturday, Aug. 16
🕗 10 p.m. ET
📍 United Center (Chicago)
📺 ESPN+ PPV
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
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