UFC 272: Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira MMA Odds and Picks

A pair of slumping fan favorites will attempt to right their respective ships during Saturday night’s main card in Las Vegas, with Kevin Holland moving down to welterweight for a tantalizing clash with Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira. Check out our Holland-Oliveira picks for UFC 272.

Kevin Holland and Alex Oliveira will sling leather while aiming to return to the win column in their welterweight matchup on Saturday. 

The tall, wiry, and ever-garrulous Holland was being touted as a middleweight dark horse after compiling five straight wins in 2020. But he’s treading on dangerous ground after dropping lopsided decisions to Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori, with his last trip to the Octagon ending in a no-contest opposite Kyle Daukaus. He's now cutting down to 171 pounds for the first time in nearly five years, and Holland will meet a foe with similar issues.

Alex Oliveira has been streaky throughout his UFC welterweight stint. And like Holland, he's lost a fair bit recently. While the Brazilian’s funky movement and varied arsenal have stolen the hearts of many MMA die-hards, he heads into his clash on a three-fight slump. Oliveira tapped against surging prospect Shavkat Rakhmonov and Randy Brown before losing to fellow wild man Niko Price on points in October 2021.

The stakes are high for each half of this welterweight matchup made in face-punching heaven. Will Holland ride his generous reach and tall-man boxing to victory? Or will “Cowboy” keep him guessing on his feet while getting in some of his patented takedowns?

Here are my Holland-Oliveira picks and predictions for Saturday’s welterweight battle (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Holland vs. Oliveira Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, March 5th, 10 p.m. ET (main card)TV: PPV, ESPN+Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

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Holland vs. Oliveira Odds Analysis

Holland’s past as a middleweight and his edge over Oliveira in terms of measurables make him a solid favorite for Saturday’s fight. DraftKings Sportsbook lists him at -335, while PointsBet is offering -350, and FanDuel is at -355.

Although there’s far more tape of Oliveira at 170 pounds than there is of Holland, Brazil’s “Cowboy” has seen better days. He tends to fade late, leading to his +260 underdog status at Caesars. That would net a nice return if a more mature and methodical version of Oliveira shows up.

Kevin Holland Betting Profile

Don’t let his recent defeats and love of mid-fight gabbing fool you. Holland possesses the tools to best more than a few heavy hitters, no matter which weight class he calls home.

At six-foot-three with an 81-inch reach, the Texas transplant knows how to keep shorter opponents at the end of his mitts. He can roll with his opponents’ punches while his chin stays largely unscathed.

The 29-year-old put those skills on display during his third-round stoppage of the stocky, granite-fisted Joaquin Buckley in 2020. And as “Jacare” Souza will tell you, Holland packs a lot of power in his long limbs.

In that same banner year, Holland earned knockout or TKO wins in four of his five fights. If he can put middleweights to sleep, the veteran can send at least a few welterweights to the same fate.

Alex Oliveira Betting Profile

There’s a lot to love about Oliveira, including his varied weapons, a deceptively strong takedown game, and his willingness to take risks.

Since making the welterweight division his permanent stomping grounds over five years ago, the 34-year-old has emphatically dispatched several battle-tested vets. That includes fan-favorite Tim Means, Ryan LaFlare, and former interim champion Carlos Condit.

Unfortunately, the last 15 months haven’t been as kind to Oliveira. He meets Holland while on a three-fight slump, including two submission defeats.

Oliveira reined himself in to earn two victories in 2020 (over Max Griffin and Peter Sobotta), ditching the errant wheel kicks and haymakers, and methodically outstriking both opponents. However, Oliveira has been on his back often throughout the Brazilian's slump. He's been too willing to accept unfavorable positions, and Oliveira has formed a habit of checking out in the later rounds.

It's difficult to predict which version of “Cowboy” will enter the cage come fight night.

Holland vs. Oliveira Picks

Holland to win (-330) ????Holland by KO/TKO (+120) ??

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Holland vs. Oliveira Predictions

Holland to win (-330)

Assuming he doesn’t hit any weight-cutting snags in his return to 170 pounds, Holland will ride his edge in height and reach. He'll dodge any haymakers Oliveira chucks and make him pay with straight punches.

As the longer fighter, Holland could also bully Oliveira any time they clinch up in space and batter him with knees. His foe likes to strike in the center of the cage as opposed to walking opponents down and applying pressure. But that tendency plays right into Holland’s hands. Expect the talkative Californian to find a home for his fists regularly.

If there’s any glaring flaw in Holland’s game, it’s his wrestling. But between his advantage in sheer size and strength and the work Holland has put into his takedown defense, he should successfully shuck off Oliveira if he attempts any takedowns.

Back him in our Holland-Oliveira picks.

Holland by KO/TKO (+120)

Oliveira may be guilty of getting in his own way at times, but I won’t turn my nose up at his durability. His only loss through strikes came during an instant classic against Yancy Medeiros in 2018. However, Holland can deliver Oliveira's second such defeat, even if the latter opts for a wrestling-heavy approach.

Due to his history as a middleweight, Holland will put Oliveira to work with every takedown attempt against the fence. Oliveira's failed efforts will empty his tank, leaving him ripe for a two-piece combination down the middle and a third-round knockout.

Yes, most of Oliveira’s losses have been tap-out defeats. But even with all the work he’s put in on his wrestling, I doubt Holland will take to the floor in pursuit of a submission.

If this clash ends before the final horn, it'll be because of Holland in Round 3.

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Holland-Oliveira picks made 3/3/2022 at 7:54 a.m. ET