UFC Fight Night Predictions | Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira Best Bets, Expert Picks & Odds

Our UFC predictions find value in the betting market as two of the heavyweight division's most exciting fighters square off tonight, when the oft-entertaining Derrick Lewis meets rising superstar Tallison Teixeira.

Andrew Reid's UFC Nashville odds and UFC picks list Teixeira as a heavy betting favorite, despite being the lower-ranked fighter. Our UFC best bets agree with the public consensus and favor the young Brazilian as he continues his meteoric rise up the heavyweight ladder.

We make our Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira prediction ahead of tonight's highly anticipated UFC Fight Night event, including some value plays. The main card gets underway at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN, ESPN+) from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn.

📊 Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira UFC odds

Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday.

Teixeira is a significant betting favorite for a reason: the 25-year-old is unbeaten in his professional career. There's no value in betting on the favorite to win the fight outright, so our favorite UFC Fight Night best bet from the table above is Teixeira to win by KO/TKO/DQ, priced at -185 with DraftKings.

However, it must be said that if the underdog is to win the fight, it'll be with a knockout. Thus, if you plan to bet on Lewis, take him to win by KO/TKO/DQ and get more bang for your buck at +300, as opposed to +260 moneyline.

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🥊 UFC Fight Night predictions: Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira preview

✅ Prediction: Tallison Teixeira to beat Derrick Lewis
📊 Best odds: -290 via FanDuel ($10 to win $3.45)

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It's not a matter of if Teixeira will ascend the heavyweight rankings; it's a matter of when. Tom Aspinall is searching for a new rival to challenge him atop the division with Jon Jones' recent retirement announcement, and it could very well be the Brazilian. Tonight represents another opportunity for Teixeira to take a step in the right direction.

He's got the physical advantage over Lewis, being taller, heavier, younger, and having a longer reach. The 25-year-old also possesses the raw power necessary to become the eighth fighter to knock Lewis out in his 41 career fights. All eight of Teixeira's professional bouts to date have ended with early knockouts. What he lacks in experience, he more than makes up for in raw power.

Xicao could struggle with more durable fighters down the road, but Lewis isn't cut from that cloth. Unfortunately, it seems bleak for the 40-year-old as he tries to string together consecutive wins for the first time since 2020/21.

FanDuel is the only sportsbook on the market offering Teixeira moneyline (-290) at odds shorter than -300. Nevertheless, with a $10 winning wager profiting $3.45, the risk isn't worth the reward. Lewis may be well past his prime, but the Black Beast's knockout power is still present. Instead, we recommend playing a method of victory or other prop markets for this bout.

💰 UFC Fight Night predictions: Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira best bet

✅ Best bet: Tallison Teixeira to win by KO/TKO/DQ
📊 Best odds: -140 via BetMGM ($10 to win $7.14)

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We mentioned earlier that all eight of Teixeira's career wins have come via early knockout, but what we intentionally withheld until now is that the Brazilian hasn't ever made it out of the first round. Five of those wins required less than two minutes inside the octagon, and three times he's celebrated after 35 seconds or less.

Lewis is a monster of a human being, standing 6-foot-3, 261 pounds. He's also the most experienced fighter Teixeira has faced off against to date, so while betting on the newcomer to finish Lewis in the first round was appealing at -140 odds with our best sports betting sites, we're playing it safe.

Teixeira to win by KO/TKO/DQ is trading at -140 with BetMGM. While this returns just $7.14 on every $10 winning ticket, bettors are getting much more value than at other books, such as DraftKings, where this prop is listed at -185. These fighters have combined to go to the judge's scorecards just once in their last 16 fights, so for all intents and purposes, this is a moneyline play.

🆚 Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira tale of the tape

📡 How to watch Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira: UFC Fight Night

📅 Saturday, July 12
🕗 9 p.m. ET
📍 Bridgestone Arena (Nashville, Tenn.)
📺 ESPN | 🛜 ESPN+

❓ Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira FAQs

Who is favored to win UFC tonight?

Tallison Teixeira is a heavy betting favorite to beat Derrick Lewis at our best sportsbooks. Teixeira is -290 moneyline at FanDuel, implying a 74.36% probability he wins the UFC Fight Night main event.

How do UFC odds work?

Teixeira is a -290 moneyline favorite, with these minus-money odds requiring a $290 wager to profit $100 on a winning ticket. Those looking to bet heavily juiced favorites, such as Teixeira, often turn to method of victory markets to find better value. Meanwhile, Lewis' plus-money odds (+260) mean a $100 wager returns $260 at DraftKings if he wins outright.

Who will win between Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira?

Tallison Teixeira is the betting favorite over Derrick Lewis at tonight's UFC Fight Night, and for good reason. The Brazilian will win the fight and continue his dominant ascent in the heavyweight division.

💵 Best UFC betting sites

Ready to bet on UFC Fight Night? Check out the best UFC betting sites and best sportsbook promos for this weekend's card:

• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
• Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

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