UFC 278 Costa vs. Rockhold MMA Odds and Picks: The Erasers Looks to Get Back on Track
A battle with potential title implications will be waged in the UFC 278 co-main event on Saturday night when former kingpin Luke Rockhold takes on Paulo Costa. Read on for our Rockhold-Costa UFC 278 picks and predictions.
A former champion who’s had his career derailed by an increasingly suspect chin, Rockhold returns to the middleweight fray after more than three years away from the Octagon. Once one of the finest 185-pounders on the planet, Rockhold has lost three of his last four bouts, belying the dangerous offensive skill set that made him the most terrifying man in the division.
Meanwhile, Costa has hit a bit of a wall after entering the promotion like an absolute freight train. He's struggled on the scale and in the cage in consecutive losses to division overlord Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori. A loss to a 37-year-old with only one victory since 2016 would be devastating to Costa’s future title aspirations.
Here are my top picks for Costa vs. Rockhold at UFC 278 (Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Costa vs. Rockhold Fight Info
Date/Time: Saturday,
Aug. 20, 10 p.m. ET (Main Card)
TV: ESPN +, PPV
Location: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City,
UT
Costa vs. Rockhold Odds Analysis
Costa is the overwhelming favorite to varying degrees at every sportsbook. “Borrachinha” opened at -260, and that line has widened to -360 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Those looking to glean some value from Costa may want to pick him to win via KO/TKO (-160 via FanDuel).
If you’re looking to back the underdog with championship pedigree, Rockhold can be snatched up as high as +310 with some books.
Costa vs. Rockhold Picks
Who Will Win Costa vs. Rockhold?
Costa (-340)
I think prime Rockhold would win this bout. The last middleweight champion in Strikeforce history is an excellent striker and a venomous finisher once he finds himself in top control. Unfortunately, for Rockhold, his prime has passed him by. With three violent knockout losses in his past four fights, Rockhold’s chin is far too creaky at this point to stand up to the uber-aggressive Costa.
Costa throws heavy volume, landing 6.85 significant strikes per minute. And though he doesn't necessarily have one-hit-quit power, he’s racked up an impressive 11 KO/TKO wins in his 13 career victories.
Rockhold may have a more varied, polished skill set, but that won’t stop his jaw from crumbling when the ever-advancing Costa lands a vicious combination.
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Costa vs. Rockhold Over/Under
Under 2.5 rounds (-220)
I don’t expect this bout to reach the judge’s scorecards. As I mentioned earlier, the combination of Rockhold’s failing chin and Costa’s penchant to hunt for a finish is a recipe for a violent finale.
At the other end of the spectrum, I wouldn’t be surprised if Rockhold turned back the clock and unleashed a violently vintage performance. Fourteen of Rockhold’s 16 career victories have come via stoppage, and he’s a terrifying figure once he ends up on top, as he’s equally adept at unleashing heavy ground-and-pound and snaking in fight-ending submissions.
Either way, this bout should end inside the distance.
Costa vs. Rockhold Winning Method
Costa via KO/TKO in Round 2 (+360)
I just can’t trust Rockhold’s chin. All of his five career losses have come via KO/TKO, with three of those happening in his past four trips to the Octagon.
“Borrachinha” is durable, aggressive, and can brutally finish an opponent when he smells blood in the water. I expect Rockhold to survive the opening stanza but get clipped at some point in the middle frame.
Where to Bet on Costa vs. Rockhold
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Costa-Rockhold UFC 278 picks made 8/19/2022 at 12:22 a.m. ET
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