Early World Cup 2026 Predictions: Best Value World Cup Winner, Long Shot, Prop Bets
Four years of pent-up excitement and anticipation will soon spill onto North and Central American footy pitches, and my early World Cup 2026 predictions offer expert picks across the major betting categories, including the tournament and Golden Boot winner.
The five betting favorites are as you would expect, with Spain (+450), England (+600), France (+650), Argentina (+800), and Brazil (+800) leading the charge. Can Lionel Messi hang up his international boots with successive World Cup triumphs, will Spain follow piggyback on its European Championship title, or will England finally end its 60-year drought?
🏆 Best World Cup 2026 bet: England (+600)
I know you're probably thinking, "Yeah, right, keep dreaming."
While the absence of a major trophy since winning the 1966 World Cup is a deterrent, I'm focusing on the last eight years, and more so, the current group of Three Lions.
🏴 England's recent results at major tournaments
| Year | Tournament | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | World Cup | 4th |
| 2020 | European Championship | 2nd |
| 2022 | World Cup | Quarterfinals |
| 2024 | European Championship | 2nd |
It's not just their recent success, but the unsurpassed depth and experience, and top-tier talent at every position. Aside from Spain and France, no team compares with England like-for-like.
France beat England in the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup thanks to Harry Kane's missed penalty. There was nothing to choose between the teams otherwise. Fast forward four years, and England, with the second-shortest World Cup odds, will enter the tournament as the team to beat from Europe, mainly due to their immaculate qualification campaign.
England is in Group L, the tournament's Group of Death, but I expect facing strong opposition throughout will strengthen their resolve.
If a slice of fortune falls their way, which hasn't been the case for 60 years, England has all the components required to at long last have football come home. Our Gordon Blunt also backs England in his World Cup predictions and group picks.
🎯 Best World Cup 2026 long shot bet: Ecuador (+5000)
A team that was nearly impossible to break down during CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers, Ecuador has one of the best, stingiest, and most organized defenses in world football.
Believing in the principle of defense wins championships, Ecuador is an intriguing dark-horse pick.
La Tri finished second in qualification behind Argentina, allowing just five goals in 18 matches. That was half as many as the second-best defensive teams in South America, Argentina and Paraguay.
Their group, all of which you can scan in our World Cup odds and favorites, consists of Germany and the Ivory Coast. If they advance into the knockout phase, anything is possible for head coach Sebastian Beccacece and his resilient squad.
🎯 Best World Cup 2026 Golden Boot bet: Harry Kane (+750)
There is no better striker in the world. Period.
Sure, Erland Haaland and Kylian Mbappe are every bit Harry Kane's equal, but the England captain continually scores and assists at a prolific rate.
He's more well-rounded than the France and Norway megastars, and you can see a snapshot of why below.
Back to his goal-scoring exploits. Kane won the Golden Boot at World Cup 2018, finishing with six goals. He has eight goals in 11 World Cup matches and hasn't regressed whatsoever despite being 32. In fact, he's probably taken a step forward.
Kane has thus far scored 36 goals in 32 matches in all competitions and leads the Bundesliga, with 22 goals in 20 matches. While Kane has the Group of Death to contend with, I expect him to play in all seven matches, which would bolster his chances of securing his second World Cup Golden Boot.
Only Mbappe has shorter odds at the best sports betting sites.
🏅 Best World Cup 2026 prop bet: Netherlands Group F winner (-125)
The Netherlands' -125 odds to win Group F have a 55.56% probability. With Japan, Tunisia, and either Albania, Poland, Sweden, or Ukraine rounding out the group, I believe the Netherlands' probability should be higher.
If you're okay with the slightly short odds, I'd jump on this bet like Kane on an open header. Oranje are the class of the group and finished unbeaten in eight World Cup qualifiers, three ahead of Poland.
I wouldn't wait to place this bet as it shouldn't matter which team secures the final spot in the group.
📊 World Cup odds 2026
Odds provided by FanDuel, one of the best sports betting apps.
| Team | Odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | +450 | 18.18 | $45 |
| England | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| France | +650 | 13.33% | $65 |
| Argentina | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Brazil | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Portugal | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Germany | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Netherlands | +1900 | 5% | $190 |
| Norway | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Colombia | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
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