⚽ Bayer Leverkusen vs. Arsenal Prediction, Picks & Odds for Wednesday's Champions League
Arsenal travels to BayArena in Leverkusen, Germany, on Wednesday to visit Bayer Leverkusen in a Round of 16 Champions League first-leg tie. My Bayer Leverkusen vs. Arsenal prediction and parlay looks at whether the Gunners can keep their perfect European record intact, and as a -175 moneyline betting favorite, oddsmakers think that's exactly how it will play out.
My Champions League best bets highlight plays on the side and the total while adding a couple of player props as we dig into how the game will play out. Play is slated to get underway at 1:45 p.m. ET, streaming on Paramount+.
⚽ Leverkusen vs. Arsenal predictions
See our experts' soccer picks based on the latest Champions League odds:
| Predictions | Best odds | Bet size | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal -1.5 | +155 via DraftKings | 0.5 units -> 0.78 units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Arsenal Over 1.5 goals | -150 via bet365 | 0.5 units -> 0.33 units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Alex Grimaldo Over 1.5 shots | +137 via bet365 | 0.5 units -> 0.69 units | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Viktor Gyokeres anytime goal scorer | +125 via bet365 | 0.75 units -> 0.91 units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.71 units
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💰 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Arsenal -1.5 (+155)
This is a major defensive mismatch, in part because Leverkusen is in the midst of an injury crisis. First-string goaltender Mark Flekken has been sidelined since January, and they're without French international Loic Bade in the middle of their backline. Arsenal scored a league-high 23 goals in the league phase, while conceding only four, making their spread an appealing play against a team they should be able to exploit while keeping at bay.
Arsenal's money (-175) is a little steep, so let's take a bit more risk and go with the -1.5 spread at +155.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2, Leverkusen 0
🔥 Best Leverkusen vs. Arsenal prop bet
Alex Grimaldo Over 1.5 shots (+137)
Grimaldo might be slotting in a defensive midfielder role, but that "defender" title seems to be on paper only. He plays a unique role in Kasper Hjulmand's 3-4-2-1 system, leading all Leverkusen players in shots across all comps.
That makes his plus-money price, needing two attempts and not even on target, very appealing. He's averaged 2.0 shots per game across 10 European starts, and taking free kicks for Leverkusen doesn't hurt those numbers. You're nearly guaranteed to have a shot attempt anytime the team gets a free kick within 30 yards of Arsenal's David Raya.
Arsenal's prolific central defense can nullify central threats (even if Mosquera has to start for Saliba again), prompting teams to take plenty of long-range attempts. It's a recipe for success for Grimaldo. He's hit this mark in four of his last six games, and gone for three twice.
🙌 Best Leverkusen vs. Arsenal goal-scorer prediction
Viktor Gyokeres, Arsenal, anytime goal scorer (+125)
Arsenal's big summer spend to bring Gyokeres to London hasn't necessarily panned out in the Prem, but it has produced results in Europe. The Swedish striker has claimed four goals in his last four Champions League games.
But there's more to it than that. Bade's absence from Leverkusen's backline can't be understated, as it's forced Robert Andrich into the CB role. He'll have his hands full dealing with a forward with Gyokeres' physical profile, especially one averaging over five touches per game in the opposition box.
Leverkusen will also look to have a share of possession on their home turf, utilising a high line to try to keep a share of the ball. However, that's been exposed in some games, with Freiburg exploiting them for three goals last time out. Gyokeres should have plenty of opportunity to strike for the Gunners.
🚀 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal same-game parlay
Our plays above should work out well and play into each other straight. We're going to leave out the Arsenal Over 1.5 goals, because that won't add any value with the Arsenal -1 spread. Our second and third legs will focus on the player props, starting with Arsenal's striker to find the back of the net (which will create a decent +275 line of its own and might also warrant a 0.2 unit play), and then round it out with the 1.5 shots for Grimaldo. There's a chance that if one of those finds the goal that Arsenal doesn't cover, so save it for the last leg if you plan to play the first two legs together as well.
💵 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal SGP picks
- Arsenal -1 (+150)
- Gyokeres to score (+125)
- Grimaldo Over 1.5 shots (+137)
Best odds: +800 via bet365 (0.2 units -> 1.6 units)
⚖️ How I'm handicapping Leverkusen vs. Arsenal
I'm expecting Arsenal to be able to contain Leverkusen, playing its normal clamp-down defense and find the back of the net (at least) a couple of times, but there's nothing special here to get crazy with this game: a normal couple units to dedicate to the outing is fine.
Arsenal's schedule is full now, but the team should be coming in with mostly fresh legs after resting numerous starters in last weekend's FA Cup draw. That gives me hope that some sore, tired legs should have the energy they need to get the job done despite being on the road.
Leverkusen vs. Arsenal key stats
| Leverkusen | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 10 | 8 |
| Goals for | 15 | 23 |
| Goals against | 14 | 4 |
| Both teams to score home/away | 60% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals home/away | 60% | 75% |
💵 My betting record for soccer picks
All soccer picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 3.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1-4 | -1.41 units ❌ | -64.3% ❌ |
| Player props | 0-2 | -1 units ❌ | -100% ❌ |
| Parlays | 0-1 | -0.2 units ❌ | -100% ❌ |
📊 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal odds
Arsenal opened at a more palatable price in the -140 to -150 range, but now is trading as high as -175 which makes me want to look toward the spread more. A 2-0 or 3-0 victory doesn't feel like it's out of the cards. I'm already not particularly interested in this moneyline when I feel there is more value to be had on the spread, although if it moves back toward it's opening number I think its fully in play.
The total hasn't moved much since opening, shading slightly toward the Over 2.5 goals. However, I think the better market is to target Arsenal's team total. With a 2-0 victory very much a reasonable outcome, and Arsenal only allowing four goals in the entire league phase. You have to pay extra vig on that, but for me it's a better market to chase.
🆚 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal projected lineups
Here are Wednesday's projected lineups for Leverkusen vs. Arsenal; lineups subject to change:
| Leverkusen (3-4-2-1) | Arsenal (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Blaswich (GK) | Raya (GK) |
| Quansah | Timber |
| Andrich | Mosquera |
| Tapsoba | Gabriel |
| Poku | Hincapie |
| Palacios | Zubimendi |
| Garcia | Rice |
| Grimaldo | Saka |
| Terrier | Eze |
| Maza | Martinelli |
| Kofane | Gryokeres |
📈 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal betting trends
| Leverkusen | Statistic | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4-2 | Season record (league phase and knockout phase) | 8-0-0 |
| LDDWD | Last 5 games (all comps) | DWWWW |
| Leverkusen 3, Freiburg 3 (Bundesliga, March 7) | Previous result (all comps) | Arsenal 2, Mansfield Town 1 (FA Cup, March 7) |
| Leverkusen's season struggles have them sixth in the Bundesliga, outside the zone to return to the Champions League | Key stat | Allowed only four goals in eight league phase games; no other team allowed fewer than seven |
Both teams should keep their normal shapes for Wednesday. Arsenal will face a couple of lineup shuffles from its normal starting XI.
William Saliba's availability remains unknown as he's been sidelined with an ankle, and Riccardo Calafiori and Leandro Trossard picked up knocks at the weekend and are expected to be on the bench if they are available at all.
🌤️ Leverkusen vs. Arsenal weather
It doesn't look like the nicest day for Leverkusen on Wednesday, but it's nothing out of line for Leverkusen vs. Arsenal. Temperatures will be in the 60 range, with a chance of showers throughout the game. Winds in the 10mph range. Nothing that should impact any of our plays.
📺 How to watch Leverkusen vs. Arsenal
- Date: Wednesday, March 11
- Kickoff: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Location: BayArena (Leverkusen, Germany)
- Streaming: Paramount+
❓ Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FAQ
Who is favored to win Leverkusen vs. Arsenal?
Arsenal is a -175 moneyline betting favorite for Leverkusen vs. Arsenal on Wednesday.
Who is the best Leverkusen vs. Arsenal bet?
My best bets for Leverkusen vs. Arsenal include Grimaldo Over 1.5 shots (+137) and Viktor Gyokeres to score (+125)
Where to watch Leverkusen vs. Arsenal in the US and Canada?
You can watch Leverkusen vs. Arsenal on Paramount+ in the United States, and stream on Fubo in Canada.
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