⚽ Italy vs. Northern Ireland Prediction Today: World Cup Qualifying Picks, Lineups & Odds
Italy meets Northern Ireland today in a pivotal World Cup qualifier, with the winner moving one step closer to booking a place in the tournament and the loser seeing its 2026 hopes come to an end. Kickoff is set for 3:45 p.m. ET (Paramount+, DAZN) at New Balance Arena in Bergamo, Italy.
Italy enters as a -425 betting favorite on the moneyline as it aims to reach the World Cup for the first time since 2014, while Northern Ireland is still chasing its first appearance in the competition in four decades. With the stakes this high, my Italy vs. Northern Ireland prediction today looks to extract value from an Azzurri win.
With the confirmed lineups in, I also have a play on Mateo Retegui finding the game of the net as part of Italy's 3-5-2 setup.
🔮 Italy vs. Northern Ireland best bets today
See all of our experts' soccer picks based on the latest odds from the best sports betting sites.; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet | Odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy ML & Under 3.5 goals | -110 via BetMGM | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Mateo Retegui anytime goal | Anytime goal (+105 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.95u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.86 units
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⚽ Italy vs. Northern Ireland prediction today
Don't miss the rest of our soccer picks for every game this season.
Italy & Under 3.5 goals (-110)
Italy has won six of seven World Cup qualifiers since Gennaro Gattuso took the helm, with its only defeat a 4-1 setback to Norway at the San Siro.
Let's get one thing straight: Northern Ireland, which lost two of three away matches in the main qualification stage, is far superior to Norway.
And Gattuso made the wise decision to play this critical match at the much smaller, more intimate Stadio di Bergamo.
That should create the intimidating and raucous atmosphere he's hoping for. The Azzurri kept four clean sheets in the previous seven games, while Northern Ireland scored one in its previous two away matches.
Score prediction: Italy 2, Northern Ireland 0
💡 World Cup predictions
If my prediction is correct, Italy will need just one win to qualify for the World Cup. World Cup prediction markets offer a host of options for participation, many of which are straightforward and appealing.
🙌 Best Italy vs. Northern Ireland goal-scorer pick today
Search the best soccer player prop odds for any team or player across every market from legal sportsbooks in your area.
Mateo Retegui, F, Italy (+105)
Retegui, who plays in the Saudi Pro League with Al-Qadsiah, enters in good form, having scored three times in the previous three games. He's been instrumental in Italy's World Cup qualification campaign, netting five times in eight appearances.
While he didn't score against Norway, Retegui bagged two in the previous home match against Israel. He's also the only first-choice Italian striker without any health concerns.
Moise Kean started on the weekend for the first time since recovering from a shin bruise, and Gianluca Scamacca has been ruled out after injuring his abductor in Atalanta's recent win over Hellas Verona.
⚽️ World Cup Golden Boot odds
As I'm chatting about goal scorers, the most exciting market to bet on is who will net the most goals at the World Cup. Dive into the World Cup Golden Boot odds at prediction markets, and make your selection while the value is optimal.
📋 Italy vs. Northern Ireland: confirmed starting XI
Here's a look at the confirmed starting XIs for the Italy vs. Northern Ireland game.
| Italy (3-5-2) | Northern Ireland (3-5-1-1) |
|---|---|
| G. Donnarumma (GK) | P. Charles (GK) |
| G. Mancini | R. McConville |
| A. Bastoni | P. McNair |
| R. Calafiori | T. Hume |
| M. Politano | J. Devenny |
| M. Locatelli | E. Galbraith |
| N. Barella | S. Charles |
| S. Tonali | B. Spencer |
| F. Dimarco | T. Devlin |
| M. Retegui | I. Price |
| M. Kean | J. Donley |
🤑 Latest Italy vs. Northern Ireland betting splits
Betting insights via DraftKings.
| Result | Current odds | % of bets |
|---|---|---|
| Italy | -390 | 97% |
| Draw | +475 | N/A |
| Northern Ireland | +1200 | 3% |
📊 Italy vs. Northern Ireland odds
Moneyline (3-way)
- Italy: -425 ($10 to win $2.35)
- Northern Ireland: +1000 ($10 to win $100)
- Tie: +460 ($10 to win $46)
Spread
- Italy: -1.5, -122 ($10 to win $8.20)
- Northern Ireland: +1.5, -104 ($10 to win $9.62)
Over/Under total goals
- Over 2.5 goals: -128 ($10 to win $7.81)
- Under 2.5 goals: +106 ($10 to win $10.60)
💵 My betting record for soccer picks
All soccer picks have been tracked since March 1.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-4-0 | -0.61 units ❌ | -5.5% ❌ |
| Player props | 1-1-0 | -0.33 units ❌ | -21.7% ❌ |
📈 Italy vs. Northern Ireland betting trends
| Italy | Statistic | Northern Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 6W, 0D, 2L | World Cup qualifying record | 3W, 0D, 3L |
| 4W, 0D, 1L | Last 5 games | 2W, 0D, 3L |
| 4-1 L, Norway | Previous result | 1-0 W, Luxembourg |
🌤️ Italy vs. Northern Ireland weather
There's a 47% chance of rain and wind gusts up to 15 mph for Thursday's matchup, with a temperature of 53 degrees at kickoff.
📺 How to watch Italy vs. Northern Ireland
- Date: Thursday, March 26
- Kickoff: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Stadio di Bergamo, Italy
- TV: Paramount+
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