Euro 2024 Quarterfinal Predictions: 5 Teams Ranked in World’s Top 10 Fight To Make Final Four
Friday and Saturday's final-eight matchups offer some tantalizing fixtures as we dive into our Euro 2024 quarterfinals predictions based on the odds from our best soccer betting sites.
If you're a fan of chalk, you've got more than you'll ever know what to do with as the Euro 2024 quarterfinals approach.
Five of the world's top 10 ranked teams (England, France, Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands) will fight for their place in the semifinals, while hosts Germany, Turkey, and Switzerland have a golden opportunity to make an unforgettable statement.
According to the Euro 2024 odds, England are the marginal favorites, with Spain, Germany, and France close enough to clip their heels.
Spain and Germany square off in Friday's first quarterfinal, followed by another meeting of powerhouses when Portugal and France clash. Those four teams are on the same side of a bracket that is more stacked than a pile of pancakes leaning like the Tower of Pisa.
On the other side of the bracket, England play Switzerland and the Netherlands face Turkey on Saturday. Here are our Euro 2024 quarterfinals predictions.
Euro 2024 quarterfinal matchups, odds, predictions
- Spain vs. Germany (Friday, noon ET)
- Portugal vs. France (Friday, 3 p.m. ET)
- England vs. Switzerland (Saturday, noon ET)
- Netherlands vs. Turkey (Saturday, 3 p.m. ET)
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Spain vs. Germany
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain 🇪🇸 | +170 | +165 | +160 | +170 | +162 |
| Germany 🇩🇪 | +180 | +180 | +175 | +175 | +175 |
| ML tie | +220 | +210 | +220 | +210 | +220 |
Statistical comparison
| Spain | Germany | |
|---|---|---|
| World ranking | 8 | 16 |
| Goals for | 9 (2nd) | 10 (1st) |
| Goals against | 1 | 2 |
| Shot attempts | 84 (1st) | 71 (3rd) |
| Shots on target | 29 (1st) | 28 (2nd) |
| Expected goals for | 10.07 (1st) | 8.77 (2nd) |
| Expected goals against | 3.11 (2nd) | 3.98 (8th) |
| Passing accuracy | 91% (2nd) | 92.3% (1st) |
| Possession | 58.5% (4th) | 62% (2nd) |
| Crosses attempted | 77 (T-4th) | 82 (3rd) |
| Crosses completed | 26 (3rd) | 23 (4th) |
| Free kicks taken | 39 (T-18th) | 52 (8th) |
Spain vs. Germany prediction
It's a shame one of these teams will be ousted from the tournament. They've been the best two teams in most facets, including offensively. Germany should be boosted by over 55,000 supporters incessantly bellowing at the top of their lungs.
Based on how well Spain have acquitted themselves, Germany may need all the support they can get. Spain's attacking trio, including Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal, and Álvaro Morata, are a perfect mixture of lightning-quick, youthful exuberance and seasoned experience.
Germany's central defensive partnership of Antonio Rüdiger and Jonathan Tah must be at their anticipatory best to offset Williams and Yamal's breakneck pace. Spain have a discernible advantage in that area, which should prove decisive.
With FanDuel's -115 odds, a $10 bet will pay a profit of $8.70 if Spain advances.
Best bet: Spain to advance (-115 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Portugal vs. France
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal 🇵🇹 | +235 | +240 | +230 | +240 | +240 |
| France 🇫🇷 | +140 | +135 | +135 | +135 | +135 |
| ML tie | +200 | +190 | +200 | +190 | +200 |
Statistical comparison
| Portugal | France | |
|---|---|---|
| World ranking | 6 | 2 |
| Goals for | 5 (T-7th) | 3 (T-12th) |
| Goals against | 3 | 1 |
| Shot attempts | 74 (2nd) | 69 (3rd) |
| Shots on target | 21 (4th) | 16 (T-9th) |
| Expected goals for | 7.92 (4th) | 6.94 (7th) |
| Expected goals against | 3.2 (4th) | 3.18 (3rd) |
| Passing accuracy | 89.5% (T-4th) | 90.5% (3rd) |
| Possession | 65.3% (1st) | 53.8% (T-7th) |
| Crosses attempted | 123 (1st) | 75 (7th) |
| Crosses completed | 29 (1st) | 19 (T-8th) |
| Free kicks taken | 53 (T-5th) | 57 (2nd) |
Portugal vs. France prediction
The 2016 Euro final rematch pits two teams that haven't consistently shown their best at Euro 2024. France are in the quarterfinals thanks to a stout and watertight defense that has conceded just one goal in four matches and none from open play. In their final group-stage contest, Poland scored against Les Bleus from the penalty spot.
Conversely, France have yet to score from open play, relying on a Kylian Mbappe penalty and two own goals - one of which was the deciding factor against Belgium in the Round of 16.
Portugal haven't scored in their last two but prevailed in penalties to oust Slovenia. I can't fathom France failing to score at least one goal from open play at Euro 2024, leading me to Mbappe, whose tournament hasn't met expectations.
However, Mbappe looked better against Belgium and posed a consistent threat. He blasted over the bar twice on incisive runs but enjoyed his best outing of the tournament after being derailed by a broken nose in the opening match.
He's the X-factor that I expect to make the difference. Cristiano Ronaldo missed from the spot against Slovenia and has been a frustrated figure in front of goal, much like Mbappe. But Mbappe is immeasurably more explosive and can create enough space to dole out the decisive blow, hopefully before extra time.
A $10 winning bet will pay a profit of $14.
Best bet: France ML (+140 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 41.67%
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England vs. Switzerland
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England 🏴 | +120 | +120 | +120 | +125 | +120 |
| Switzerland 🇨🇭 | +290 | +280 | +270 | +280 | +280 |
| ML tie | +195 | +195 | +200 | +185 | +200 |
Statistical comparison
| England | Switzerland | |
|---|---|---|
| World ranking | 5 | 19 |
| Goals for | 4 (T-9th) | 7 (T-3rd) |
| Goals against | 2 | 3 |
| Shot attempts | 44 (12th) | 46 (11th) |
| Shots on target | 12 (T-17th) | 18 (T-7th) |
| Expected goals for | 5.23 (11th) | 5.08 (T-12th) |
| Expected goals against | 3.27 (5th) | 5.25 (13th) |
| Passing accuracy | 89.5% (T-4th) | 85.3% (14th) |
| Possession | 60.5% (3rd) | 48% (15th) |
| Crosses attempted | 64 (13th) | 46 (18th) |
| Crosses completed | 17 (11th) | 5 (24th) |
| Free kicks taken | 66 (1st) | 53 (T-5th) |
England vs. Switzerland prediction
Switzerland represent a dangerous proposition for an England side that had to rely on an acrobatic and sensational last-gasp equalizer from Jude Bellingham against Slovakia in the Round of 16. England will likely boss the ball, which won't faze a Switzerland side that thrives on the counter.
The Three Lions have controlled possession the third-most in this tournament but have mustered just 12 shots on target, ranked 17th. Switzerland have scored seven goals, tied for the third-most, despite attempting just 46 shots, the 11th-most.
Unless England become more clinical in front of goal and push the tempo with more direct, one-two passing, Switzerland won't have any issues defending deep and absorbing. Switzerland were excellent against Italy and Germany, and their recent rich vein of form should extend into this intriguing quarterfinal bout.
I like the moneyline tie, with England scratching through in the extra session. If it goes to penalties, Switzerland have the advantage. A $10 winning bet will pay a profit of $20.
Best bet: ML tie (+200 via bet365) | Implied probability: 33.33%
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Netherlands vs. Turkey
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands 🇳🇱 | -170 | -170 | -159 | -170 | -175 |
| Turkey 🇹🇷 | +475 | +500 | +425 | +450 | +500 |
| ML tie | +320 | +300 | +300 | +300 | +290 |
Statistical comparison
| Netherlands | Turkey | |
|---|---|---|
| World ranking | 7 | 42 |
| Goals for | 7 (T-3rd) | 7 (T-3rd) |
| Goals against | 4 | 6 |
| Shot attempts | 63 (5th) | 56 (6th) |
| Shots on target | 16 (T-9th) | 19 (6th) |
| Expected goals for | 8.32 (3rd) | 6.24 (8th) |
| Expected goals against | 4.07 (9th) | 8.54 (23rd) |
| Passing accuracy | 88.3% (8th) | 86.5% (12th) |
| Possession | 55% (6th) | 50.3% (14th) |
| Crosses attempted | 77 (T-4th) | 50 (12th) |
| Crosses completed | 21 (T-5th) | 19 (T-8th) |
| Free kicks taken | 45 (13th) | 50 (10th) |
Netherlands vs. Turkey prediction
The Netherlands vs. Turkey quarterfinal is the most lopsided matchup, at least on paper. Turkey have performed admirably to make it to this stage and should make another excellent account of themselves.
Offensively, Turkey have been a breath of fresh air, as mouthwatering and tantalizing as a Turkish Delight. They should score a goal against a Dutch side that is vulnerable defensively despite boasting the best individual talent of any rearguard in the tournament.
However, the Netherlands finally hit fifth gear against Romania in the Round of 16. Admittedly, the Romanians were palpably inferior to the other teams Holland have faced. Regardless, Holland played devoid of encumbering shackles, creating enough chances to score a baker's dozen.
I expect the Dutch to play even better against a Turkish side capable of an upset. This one should have a few goals, with Oranje advancing after 90 minutes. A $10 winning bet will pay a profit of $9.26.
Best bet: Netherlands to win and Over 1.5 goals (-108 at BetMGM) | Implied probability: 51.92%
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