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Canada's forward #17 Cyle Larin runs after the ball during the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group F football match between Belgium and Canada at the Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium in Al-Rayyan, west of Doha on Nov. 23.
Canada's forward #17 Cyle Larin runs after the ball during the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group F football match between Belgium and Canada at the Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium in Al-Rayyan, west of Doha on Nov. 23. Jewel SAMAD / AFP

The intensity has been ratcheted up for a Group F World Cup matchup between Croatia and Canada. Follow along for our Croatia-Canada World Cup picks.

Les Rouges reduced the No. 2 ranked team in the world to just one goal and outshot Belgium 21-9 in their World Cup opener. The Canadians had more shots on Wednesday than Spain (17), who won 7-0 against Costa Rica. Next up for the tournament underdogs are the runners-up from Russia 2018. 

Croatia looked off the pace against Morocco in their goalless draw on Wednesday. Even with the mercurial Luka Modric, they managed just five shots all game, which is their lowest total in a single World Cup match ever. Croatia averaged 16.1 shots-per-game in the 2018 edition of the tournament. Could this be the moment Canada get their elusive World Cup goal? 

Here are our picks for the World Cup match between Croatia and Canada on Sunday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Croatia vs. Canada Game Info

Date: Sunday, Nov. 27, 11 a.m. ET
TV: Fox Sports, Telemundo
Location: Khalifa International Stadium, Doha, Qatar
Weather: 81 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, 13-mph winds

Be sure to check out all of our World Cup odds.

Croatia vs. Canada Picks

  • Moneyline: Canada (+270 via DraftKings) ★★★
  • Over/Under: Over 2.5 goals (+100 via FanDuel) ★★★★
  • Prop pick: Both teams to score no draw (+175 via DraftKings) ★★★★

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Croatia vs. Canada ML Pick

Canada (+270) ★★★

This is Canada’s World Cup final. Les Rouges have come so far under head coach John Herdman, topping CONCACAF in qualifying and outscoring every team in the confederation. They’ve not gone to Qatar to make up the numbers, as they showed against Belgium on Wednesday. The reigning Premier League Player of the Season, Kevin De Bruyne, even admitted after the game that he was undeserving of the Player of the Match award. 

Croatia's goalless draw with Morocco on MD1 ended their run of scoring in 11 consecutive World Cup matches. Only once have they failed to score in consecutive games at the same edition of the tournament, doing so in their first two group games in 2006. 

These two nations have never met before this tournament. Croatia are unbeaten in their last seven games but Canada have the energy, guile, and enthusiasm. Their pace and attack could be too much for the stuttering Europeans. 

Most sportsbooks have Canada at +250, but make sure you look around because there is better value. Caesars have them at +260, and the price has already changed a few times on Saturday. DraftKings have got the odds as high as +270.  

Croatia vs. Canada O/U Pick 

Over 2.5 goals (+175 via DraftKings) ★★★★

Both teams must come out attacking, which will open things up at the back. For Canada, expect more of the same. Confidence will be high after their performance against Belgium. Of their 21 shots, only four were on target. Croatia only had two on target in their opening match, so if they want to advance to the last 16, they’ve got to create chances. 

Canada’s Jonathan David had seven shots in their opener, all from inside the box, but with none on target. Since 1966, this is a joint-high for shots inside the box by a player in a World Cup match without one being on target. Only two players, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe, have scored more goals in Ligue 1 than David has for Lille (9) this season. He’s a threat and knows where the goal is. 

Each of these sides have goals in them, and with so much at stake, take the Over in what could be an entertaining match. 

DraftKings and FanDuel have this priced at even odds. The best price you can find elsewhere is -105 at PointsBet and Caesars. 

Croatia vs. Canada Prop Pick 

Both teams to score no draw (+175 via DraftKings) ★★★★

If Belgium beat Morocco, they’ll advance to the knockout stages, leaving just one spot for three teams to compete for. Neither Canada nor Croatia will want to lose ground in the qualification race. If Canada lose this match, they’re out. If Croatia lose, they’ll need to beat Belgium in their final group match to stand any chance of progressing. A draw won’t be curtains for either team, but they know a win will give them the advantage going into Matchday 3. 

Canada are yet to score from 50 shots in their four World Cup matches. Only one nation ever failed to score in each of their first five World Cup matches, with Bolivia doing so from 1930 to 1994. They’re fired up and will want to amend that stat. It’s all or nothing on Sunday, expect goals from both teams in an open match. With the potential for it being an open match, the chances of a draw are unlikely. 

Where to Bet on Croatia vs. Canada Picks

  Here are our best World Cup betting sites:

Croatia-Canada picks made 11/26/2022 at 6:02 a.m. ET