When Next Pope Will Be Chosen AI Prediction: When Does Conclave Start & How Long Will it Last?
The process of electing the new pope and successor to Pope Francis begins Wednesday when the conclave meets in the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City. AI is predicting a quick decision via the cardinals' vote, as we look for an answer to this question: When will the new pope be announced?
Our breakdown of the new pope betting odds features all the latest information on the search for the 267th pontiff.
⏰ When will the new pope be announced?
If you're in the U.S., you can make predictions on the next pope via Kalshi. Join now and get a $10 bonus. 18+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- Before May 9: 56% chance
- Before May 16: 91% chance
- Before June 1: 97% chance
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🤖 AI prediction for when the new pope will be announced
I asked ChatGPT, a large language model chatbot from OpenAI, for its best prediction on when the new pope will be announced. Please note that ChatGPT is not a bettor and isn't recommended for betting advice, but it can help provide additional information and insights, contributing to informed decisions.
ChatGPT expects a fast decision from the cardinals.
🔮 Prediction: The new pope will be announced between May 8–10
- Conclave start date: May 7, 2025, as the Vatican officially announced
- Typical duration: Modern conclaves last 2–4 days
- Pope Francis (2013): elected on the second day (fifth ballot)
- Pope Benedict XVI (2005): elected on the second day (fourth ballot)
- Cardinal commentary: Several insiders have hinted this conclave could be “short,” with a front-runner or consensus figure likely to emerge quickly
🗓️ Likeliest timeline:
- May 7: Opening ceremonies and first ballot (possibly inconclusive)
- May 8–9: Multiple ballots per day
- May 8–10: White smoke and “Habemus Papam” announcement from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica
💨 Will white smoke appear from the chimney on May 7?
The white smoke signals to the world that a new pope has been successfully elected.
🔥 Here’s how it works:
- During a papal conclave, ballots are burned after each vote
- If no pope is elected, black smoke appears (from a mixture of ballot papers and chemicals)
- Once a pope is chosen and accepts the position, white smoke is produced by burning the ballots with a different chemical mix
- This white smoke billowing from the Sistine Chapel’s chimney announces “Habemus Papam” - “We have a pope!”
Sports Interaction, one of our best Ontario sports betting sites for how to bet on the next pope, provides odds for whether a new pope will be elected on Wednesday.
- Yes: +900 (10% implied probability)
- No: -5000 (98.04% implied probability)
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
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Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
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