How Long Will the U.S. Government Shutdown Last? Odds, Prediction & Latest News
Nearly a week has passed since the beginning of the latest U.S. government shutdown. And with much at stake for Democrats, Republicans, and most importantly, the people impacted, there's a natural next question: How long will the U.S. government shutdown last?
Kalshi, a legal and regulated prediction market throughout most of the U.S., is asking that question, and the results aren't exactly encouraging.
π’ U.S. government shutdown odds 2025
Kalshi offers a percentage probability for the most likely length of the shutdown. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 by signing up today.
π How long will the shutdown last?
| Days | Probability |
|---|---|
| More than 12 days | 88% |
| More than 11 days | 85% |
| More than 13 days | 84% |
| More than 14 days | 77% |
| More than 15 days | 66% |
| More than 20 days | 53% |
| More than 25 days | 37% |
| More than 30 days | 27% |
Just shy of two more weeks is highly favorable, and exactly two weeks is still getting a reasonably high probability at 77%. However, there's a drop at 15 days to 66%, and an even further dive once we start to reach around three weeks.
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π°οΈ How long have past shutdowns lasted?
We're amid the first government shutdown since 2018. But although it's been a while since the last one, a government shutdown has broadly been a more common occurrence compared to earlier American history.
There have been three shutdowns in the last 12 years, and now 20 since 1976, according to NBC News. Here are the longest government shutdowns.
| Year | President | Length |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Donald Trump | 34 days |
| 1995 | Bill Clinton | 21 days |
| 1978 | Jimmy Carter | 17 days |
| 2013 | Barack Obama | 16 days |
| 1977 | Jimmy Carter | 12 days |
| 1979 | Jimmy Carter | 11 days |
| 1976 | Gerald Ford | 10 days |
Many shutdowns are over quickly. For example, Ronald Reagan was president during eight shutdowns, but none lasted more than three days.
Only seven have reached double-digit territory, though three of the most recent instances have lasted 16-plus days, including the record mark in 2018 during Donald Trump's first term. It's telling then that Kalshi is forecasting this one to last around 20 days.
πΊπΈ Latest U.S. government shutdown news
- The shutdown officially began at 12:01 a.m. ET on Oct. 1, resulting in up to 750,000 furloughed federal workers
- However, a draft White House memo claims that workers aren't guaranteed compensation for forced time off, according to Axios
- At the center of the shutdown for Democrats are healthcare subsidies tied to the Affordable Care Act due to expire at the end of the year, and passing a resolution to restart funding is unlikely without concrete legislation
- Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine, who's often one to reach across the aisle, has put together a "discussion draft," but it suggests an Affordable Care Act extension only after the government reopens, according NBC News
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