New York Democratic Mayoral Primary Predictions: Who Will Win Between Cuomo and Mamdani?
Tomorrow is a key day in New York politics, as voters will choose the Democratic candidate for mayor in the upcoming election on Nov. 4. The New York Democratic mayoral primary predictions show it's an incredibly tight race at the top between Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani.
Kalshi, which is the sole legal and regulated prediction market in America, is featuring a market connected to the city's democratic primary while gauging who will emerge victorious.
🔢 New York Democratic mayoral primary prediction market 2025
The most prominent prediction market tied to tomorrow's New York Democratic primary election evaluates the narrow contest while simply asking who will win.
Winning the Democratic primary is often a clear path to becoming the next mayor in a city and state that might be gradually shifting rightward, but it's still two-thirds registered Democrats.
If you're confident in either Cuomo or Mamdani, you can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus throughout most of the U.S.
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🗳️ Who will be the Democratic New York City mayor nominee this year?
| Candidate | Probability |
|---|---|
| Andrew Cuomo | 61% |
| Zohran Mamdani | 39% |
Cuomo maintains a base as the former governor of the state. He was praised for many actions, perhaps most notably his handling of COVID-19 in the state. However, he was forced to resign after numerous allegations of sexual misconduct.
Meanwhile, Mamdani has been rising fast while viewed as the up-and-coming young Democratic socialist who's further to the left than Cuomo. The 33-year-old has received endorsements from Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, showing where he lands as a progressive. He would be one of the youngest ever to hold the position if elected mayor, and the first-ever Muslim mayor in the city's history. New York is home to over 500,000 Muslims.
Boiled down, the primary is rooted in heading further left policy wise (Mamdani proposes to provide more social services through taxing the rich, for example) versus the experience of Cuomo, who served as governor for just over a decade.
Kalshi is showing that Cuomo maintains a sizable edge, though Mamdani could be making a late surge.
🗽 Latest New York Democratic mayoral primary news
- It's critical to remember that New York uses a ranked-choice voting system in which voters get to list their top-five preferred candidates. That's key here, as Mamdani and Brad Lander - with the latter widely polling in third - have cross-endorsed each other, telling their voters to rank them first and second.
- An Emerson College poll this morning showed Mamdani only three percentage points behind Cuomo.
- The same poll also ran a simulation for the entire ranked-choice voting process, and it ended with Mamdani winning 52% to 48%.
- However, a Marist poll shows Cuomo winning by 10%.
- Former President Bill Clinton endorsed Cuomo over the weekend.
- Only 4% of voters remain undecided, and early voter turnout has been nearly double the total from four years ago, reflecting enthusiasm.
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