Wild vs. Lightning Prediction & Odds: NHL Picks Today (March 24)
The Tampa Bay Lightning welcome the Minnesota Wild to Benchmark International Arena tonight (7:30 p.m. ET) after a successful four-game Western trip.
With Kirill Kaprizov's status up in the air for the meaningful contest, the Lightning are the clear -172 moneyline betting favorite.
I'm expecting a game with six goals or fewer in my Wild vs. Lightning prediction, thanks to Minnesota's personnel situation and its prioritization of executing a sound defensive game plan. As part of my best NHL bets, I'm headlining a Brandon Hagel player prop.
🏒 Wild vs. Lightning picks & odds today: March 24
See all of our experts' NHL picks based on the latest NHL odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet type | Prediction | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game prediction | Lightning ML (-172 via FanDuel) | 0.5u -> 0.29u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over/Under total | Under 6.5 (-120 via bet365) | 2u -> 1.66u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Brandon Hagel player prop bet | Over 0.5 assists (+120 via BetMGM) | 1u -> 1.2u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.5 units | Max profit: 3.15 units
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🚑 Will Kirill Kaprizov play against Lightning?
The Wild's best player is joining the team on the road trip after missing the last two games. While Kaprizov almost assuredly play at some point in the three-game stint, we're still waiting to see whether he'll play on Tuesday in Tampa.
Joel Eriksson Ek and Marcus Foligno are in the same boat. We'll hear confirmation about their statuses on Tuesday morning. I'd be surprised if all three play in Tampa, especially with how important they are to the team entering the postseason.
If I were a betting man, which I obviously am, I'd say Kaprizov will miss Tuesday's game and suit up on Thursday against the Florida Panthers.
💰 Wild vs. Lightning prediction & best bet
Under 6.5 (-120)
While the statuses of Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, and Foligno are yet to be confirmed, the Wild have scored three goals in their two games without Kaprizov, and eight of their previous nine games hit the Under.
If the Wild are going to keep things competitive, which I believe they will, they'll concentrate on locking things down defensively.
And as it's the first game back in Tampa after a four-game western trip, the Lightning might need some time to find their legs and kick that explosive offense into high gear.
Score prediction: Lightning 3, Wild 2
🔥 Best Wild vs. Lightning player prop bet
Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 assists (+120)
Hagel is on an assist tear over the last four games, registering six. He failed to notch one in Calgary against the Flames. Then again, most Lightning players laid an egg in Calgary after a heroic effort the previous night in Edmonton.
With a few days' rest, I expect Hagel to be back to his best, setting up Hart Trophy odds front-runner Nikita Kucherov and Anthony Cirelli.
That trio had expected goals rates of 64%, 75%, and 71% against the Seattle Kraken, Vancouver Canucks, and Edmonton Oilers, respectively, on the recent road trip.
📊 Live Wild vs. Lightning odds
The Wild's odds opened at +150 but have since shortened to between +142 and +145. That's probably due to some buyback for an excellent Wild team that has the fourth-best road points percentage (.667).
However, Minnesota will likely be without Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, and Foligno. All three are traveling with the Wild, so they could play. But I feel it's more likely they'll play in Florida on Thursday.
🚀 Wild vs. Lightning same-game parlay
💵 Wild vs. Lightning SGP picks
- Lightning ML (-172)
- Under 6.5 (-130)
- Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 assists (+120)
Best odds: +516 via FanDuel (.2u -> 1.03u)
💵 My betting record for NHL picks
All NHL picks have been tracked since March 1.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 44-59-3 | +4.71 units ✅ | 5% ✅ |
| Player props | 27-43 | -7.51 units ❌ | -11.5% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Wild vs. Lightning
Follow all of our NHL analysis and expert predictions this season.
Teams often struggle in their first game back at home after a cross-continent road trip. However, the Lightning were excellent on the trip and could be facing a Wild team without three of their top players.
But with all the unknowns and the lack of value in the moneyline, I'm only investing half a unit.
I'm more confident in the Under because of the Wild's recent track record of prioritizing defense. I'll be even more confident if Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek don't feature. Hagel, meanwhile, has been awesome recently, and he's been finding Kucherov consistently.
📈 Wild vs. Lightning betting trends
| Wild | Statistic | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| 40-19-12 | W-L record | 43-21-5 |
| 37-34-0 | ATS record | 37-32-0 |
| 1-6-3 | O/U record last 10 | 7-2-1 |
| 2-2-1 | Last 5 games | 3-1-1 |
🚑 Wild vs. Lightning injuries
📺 How to watch Wild vs. Lightning
- Date: Tuesday, March 24
- Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, Fla.)
- TV: TNT
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