NHL Shot Prop Picks, Predictions for Thursday: Too Much Tkachuk For Flyers
There are 10 games in the NHL on Thursday, and Florida Panthers winger Matthew Tkachuk headlines our top shot-prop picks to go Over his total against the Philadelphia Flyers.
The lack of plus-money Overs in the shot-prop markets continues to stand out, and there have also been a number of players who consistently had generous odds to start the season that have since dropped considerably.
Boston Bruins winger Jake DeBrusk and Minnesota Wild winger Matthew Boldy are two notable examples of players trading at significantly lower prices to go Over 2.5 shots than they were even a week ago.
I don’t have any Under bets here, but it’s definitely something I’ll be looking at more closely over the next week because the vig continues to climb on Overs unlike past seasons.
Here are our top NHL shot-prop picks for Thursday, Oct. 27 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Top NHL Shot Prop Picks for Thursday
NHL Shot Prop Predictions
Matthew Tkachuk Over 3.5 shots (-105) ★★★★
The Philadelphia Flyers check the boxes. They’ve surrendered the most shot attempts per 60 minutes in the league and sport the second-lowest Corsi for percentage at five-on-five.
This is also a ripe bounce-back spot for the Florida Panthers after a poor outing against the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday. It was the only game all season in which Tkachuk failed to go Over Thursday's 3.5-shot line, too.
Evander Kane Over 3.5 shot (-115) ★★★
Kane and new linemates center Leon Draisaitl and winger Kailer Yamamoto didn’t impress during the Edmonton Oilers 3-1 win over the St. Louis Blues on Wednesday. I’m expecting the downgrade in the competition of the Chicago Blackhawks to open more opportunities for the new-look trio Thursday.
Chicago has surrendered the fifth-most shot attempts per 60 minutes and has the fifth-lowest Corsi for percentage at five-on-five, after all.
After failing to register a single shot against the Blues, I’m also anticipating Kane to be a more willing shooter with additional time and space Thursday.
Roope Hintz Over 2.5 shots (+120) ★★
At best, the Washington Capitals are a middling-possession team. They’ve allowed the 16th most shot attempts per 60 minutes and rank 23rd in Corsi for percentage at five-on-five.
As a result, Hintz going Over this total presents value. He’s shown an uptick in shot volume while pacing the Dallas Stars in shot attempts over the past two games. Additionally, the 25-year-old center skates on the top line and No. 1 power-play unit.
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NHL shot-prop picks made 10/27/2022 at 11 a.m. ET.
