Stars vs. Golden Knights Picks, Predictions & Odds: Marching with Marchessault

The Western Conference Final starts Friday with the Dallas Stars heading to Sin City to face the Vegas Golden Knights. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has crunched the numbers and shares his top pick based on the latest NHL odds from our best sports betting apps.

It seems fitting that lady luck has helped the fellas from Sin City advance to the Western Conference Final. Vegas received elite goaltending from third-stringer Adin Hill in Round 2, as the Golden Knights eliminated the Edmonton Oilers in six games.

Make no mistake, the Stars will be ready for the tough test. And while Vegas benefited from some puck luck against the Oil, Big D starter Jake Oettinger has statistical correction ahead of his .877 save percentage against the Seattle Kraken in Round 2.

This series is going to be incredibly close and I’d be shocked if it didn’t go at least six games. The difference might just be settled in goal.

It’s going to be a doozy.

Here is our best Stars vs. Golden Knights prediction for Friday (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Stars vs. Golden Knights pick

Jonathan Marchessault Over 3.5 shots (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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At first glance, it would be easy to call for screaming statistical correction ahead of Marchessault’s skyrocketing shot volume in Round 2 against the Edmonton Oilers.

There were two huge changes that paved the way for the winger’s uptick in shots and attempts, though.

First, winger Ivan Barbashev replaced Michael Amadio on the Vegas top line alongside center Jack Eichel and Marchessault ahead of Game 5 in the Round 1 series against the Winnipeg Jets.

Second, Vegas began to commit to a loaded No. 1 power-play unit featuring winger Mark Stone, Eichel, and Marchessault in Game 3 against the Oil in Round 2. It's resulted in Marchessault returning to his role as the go-to shooter with the man advantage.

So, while there’s no chance Marchessault’s behemoth 19.94 shots and 26.98 attempts per 60 minutes from Round 2 carry over into the Western Conference Final, there is still oodles of room for both the pending negative regression and this Over to cash in Friday.

This recommendation was originally made with the Over 3.5 shots priced at -110. I'd still play it to -115.

Stars vs. Golden Knights best odds

FanDuel (-113)

There isn’t a huge edge to be found in the odds across three of our five best sports betting apps. You’ll just want to avoid the extra vig DraftKings (-125) and PointsBet (-120) are charging. For comparison, the difference between the -113 and -125 prices is a positive expected value of 5%.

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Stars vs. Golden Knights odds

Stars vs. Golden Knights odds analysis

There aren’t any outlier odds available through our best sports betting sites to target. Bettors will just want to steer clear of the highlighted two worst offerings.

Stars vs. Golden Knights game info

• Date: Friday, May 19, 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, Sportsnet
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Stars vs. Golden Knights pick updated 5/19/2023 at 10:45 a.m. ET.

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