Red Wings vs. Sabres Picks, Predictions: Battle of Improved Atlantic Division Teams
The offseason brought significant improvements to the Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres, and now they meet in Buffalo on Monday night. Read on for our Red Wings-Sabres picks.
After a busy offseason of adding veteran free agents to support their young core, the Red Wings have a 4-2-2 record. Former Chicago Blackhawks winger Dominik Kubalik has been a revelation, leading the Red Wings with 11 points. Detroit's only two regulation losses have come against the New Jersey Devils and Boston Bruins, two of the top teams in the league.
Buffalo’s improvement was geared more toward the growth of internal options. Defenseman Owen Power, along with wingers Jack Quinn and J.J. Peterka, injected skilled young talent into the Sabres' lineup. Is this group ready to be a playoff contender now? The Sabres are 5-3 and more competitive than they have been in a long time.
Both teams have some injuries. Detroit is missing left winger Tyler Bertuzzi and Buffalo’s blue line has been hit hard recently, with Mattias Samuelsson, Henri Jokiharju, and Ilya Lyubushkin all out of action.
Here are my NHL picks and predictions for Monday's game between the Red Wings and Sabres (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Red Wings vs. Sabres Game Info
Date: Monday, Oct. 31, 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN+
Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
Red Wings vs. Sabres Odds
Red Wings vs. Sabres Odds Analysis
Odds opened at DraftKings with Buffalo favored at -140 and Detroit paying +120 as the underdog. That line has moved toward the Sabres at -150.
The goal total is set at 6.5, priced at even money on the Under and -120 on the Over. In early wagering, 98% of the money is with the Over, but that is on a very small sample of tickets.
Red Wings vs. Sabres Picks
- Moneyline: Sabres (-150 via FanDuel)
- Over/Under: Under 6.5 (+100 via DraftKings)
- Prop bet: Victor Olofsson Over 0.5 goals (+265 via DraftKings)
Red Wings vs. Sabres ML Pick
Sabres (-143) ★★★★
While the Red Wings must be feeling positive about a 4-2-2 record, including 1-1-1 on the road, the underlying numbers have been shaky. They are controlling 44.0% of five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts and 43.8% of expected goals. Those percentages are the mark of a subpar team, even if it does have good goaltending.
Starting the season with a 5-3 record, the Sabres have suffered losses to Florida, Seattle, and Montreal. However, Buffalo has been respectable overall. It has controlled 50.0% of 5v5 score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts and 48.5% of expected goals.
This does not make the Sabres overpowering, but they are worthy favorites on home ice against the Red Wings.
Red Wings vs. Sabres O/U Pick
Under 6.5 (+100) ★★★★
Both teams have been able to count on above-average goaltending this season and that is part of the reason to like this game to go Under the total. The Sabres rank fifth with a .921 save percentage and the Red Wings rank eighth with a .911 mark.
The Red Wings have an even split of four games with a total of seven goals or more and four with six goals or less. On a per-60-minute basis, the Red Wings are averaging a total of 6.08 goals (for plus against).
Buffalo has reached a total of seven goals or more three times in eight games, leaving five games of six goals or less. On a per-60-minute basis, the Sabres are averaging a total of 6.37 goals.
Red Wings vs. Sabres Prop Pick
Olofsson Over 0.5 goals (+265) ★★★★
Though Victor Olofsson has scored six goals in eight games for the Sabres, it is worth noting that he has three two-goal games, leaving more goalless games than one might expect.
Even so, Olofsson’s per-game shot rate has jumped from 2.28 per game last season to 3.25 this year. That gives him a better chance to find the back of the net. At this price, against a Red Wings team that's around league average with 2.98 goals against per 60 minutes, Olofsson offers good value.
Where to Bet on Red Wings-Sabres Picks
Red Wings-Sabres picks made 10/31/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
