Penguins vs. Avalanche Prediction & Odds: NHL Picks Today (March 16)
Most games from here on out will have playoff implications, which is the case when the Colorado Avalanche welcome the Pittsburgh Penguins to Ball Arena for tonight's contest (9:30 p.m. ET, Prime Video).
I'm backing Colorado to win by at least two goals in my Penguins vs. Avalanche prediction for various reasons, including the fact that Sidney Crosby won't return to Pittsburgh's lineup. With the best home record, the Avalanche are the -240 moneyline betting favorite.
🏒 Penguins vs. Avalanche picks & odds today: March 17
See all of our experts' NHL picks based on the latest NHL odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet type | Prediction | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game prediction | Avalanche -1.5 (+110 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 1.10u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over/Under total | Over 6.5 (-118 via FanDuel) | 0.5u -> 0.425u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Martin Necas player prop bet | Anytime goal (+140 via FanDuel) | 0.5u -> 0.7u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 2.25 units
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🚑 Is Sidney Crosby playing against the Avs on Monday?
While Crosby is getting close to returning, he will not play against the Avalanche on Monday, according to reports. Crosby has been out of the Pens' lineup since injuring his knee in the Olympics against Czechia.
Penguins record without Crosby
- The Penguins are 4-3-3 without Crosby
👍 Is Evgeni Malkin playing against the Avs on Monday?
Yes, Malkin will return to the lineup after serving a 5-game suspension for slashing Buffalo Sabres' captain Rasmus Dahlin in the face.
Penguins record without Malkin
- The Pens are 2-1-2 in the five games without Malkin
Penguins record without Malkin & Crosby
- The Pens are 2-1-2 without Crosby and Malkin
💰 Penguins vs. Avalanche prediction & best bet
Avalanche -1.5 (+110)
Despite having the seventh-best away record (tied with the Sabres), the Pens are trending in the opposite direction, losing four of the previous five.
And after a run of 24 games without losing by two or more, the Pens fell twice in the last six by multiple goals, a 5-1 setback at home against Buffalo and a 6-2 defeat at the struggling Vegas Golden Knights.
I'm confident the Avs will be up for a bounce-back outing after a brutal display in a road loss to the substandard Winnipeg Jets.
Score prediction: Avalanche 5, Penguins 2
🔥 Best Penguins vs. Avalanche player prop bet
Martin Necas anytime goal (+140)
Necas is enjoying his best goal-scoring patch since joining the Avalanche, netting at least one in eight of the previous 10.
He's scored a goal in three straight entering tonight's contest and is among the league leaders in goals above shooting talent, meaning he scores more than his expected goals suggest. Despite that season-long stat, he was among the Avs' leaders in expected goals in three of the previous four games.
All are solid indications that he can continue his streak, and I'm excited to see him pot another one.
💡 Nathan MacKinnon player prop
As we keep a close eye on the Hart Trophy odds race, Nathan MacKinnon remains the clear favorite. I believe he's in for a big night against the Pens after racking up 10 points against them in the last three meetings.
The only problem? His best odds to do so are -150 at BetMGM. So, you'll be receiving a diminished profit margin if he does what I expect. A winning $10 bet will only profit $6.67.
📊 Live Penguins vs. Avalanche odds
The Penguins won in Utah on Saturday, while the Avalanche lost 3-1 to the Jets in Winnipeg. The combination of those results helped shorten the Pens' odds from -105 to -130.
While the Pens' odds shortened, they will still be without Crosby. In addition, the Avalanche arrived late in Winnipeg, which I'm convinced contributed to their woeful outing. I like the fact that the Avalanche's odds have lengthened, as it provides better value for a solid wager.
🚀 Penguins vs. Avalanche same-game parlay
💵 Penguins vs. Avalanche SGP picks
- Avalanche -1.5 (+104)
- Over 6.5 (-118)
- Martin Necas anytime goal (+140)
Best odds: +805 via FanDuel (.2u -> 1.6u)
💵 My betting record for NHL picks
All NHL picks have been tracked since Feb 1.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 75-81-2 | +12.4 units ✅ |
| Player props (March) | 14-31 | -11.8 units ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Penguins vs. Avalanche
Follow all of our NHL analysis and expert predictions this season.
The Pens' only wins in the previous seven came against a sliding Utah Mammoth and an improbable home against the Boston Bruins.
Colorado, meanwhile, struggled against the Jets. However, it arrived in Winnipeg just 15 hours before puck drop, which made the task at hand all the more challenging. Crosby won't play, giving the home Avalanche another boost.
And with Dallas breathing down Colorado's neck, the Avs will be at their irrepressible best.
I don't expect Malkin's return to the lineup to galvanize the Pens, and without Crosby, the Pens should struggle against the best home team. The last five Pens' games have featured at least 7 goals, which is one of the reasons I'm backing the Over.
As I'm most confident in the Avalanche puck line, that pick gets a full unit. The lower probability that Necas will score is why it gets a half unit despite my higher confidence level.
📈 Penguins vs. Avalanche betting trends
| Penguins | Statistic | Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| 33-18-15 | W-L record | 44-12-9 |
| 40-26-0 | ATS record | 34-31-0 |
| 5-5 | O/U record last 10 | 3-5-2 |
| 2-1-2 | Last 5 games | 3-2-0 |
🚑 Penguins vs. Avalanche injuries
📺 How to watch Penguins vs. Avalanche
- Date: Monday, March 16
- Puck drop: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Ball Arena (Denver)
- TV: Prime Video
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