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NHL Player Props & Best Bets Today: Expect Plenty of Goals in Philadelphia

Ryan Gilbert

Last Updated: March 2, 2024 4:06 PM EST • 3 min 61 sec read.

NHL best bets
NHL best bets

The NHL has 13 games on the docket throughout the day on Saturday, and we're offering our top NHL prop picks and best bets based on the top NHL odds.

There's already been plenty of afternoon action in the NHL on Saturday, but it's far from over as we enter the evening.

The New York Rangers and Toronto Maple Leafs do battle in an Original Six matchup at 7 p.m., and the Pittsburgh Penguins are in Calgary to face the Flames at 10 p.m. to close out the slate.

Here are our top NHL prop picks and best bets for Saturday (NHL picks based on odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Saturday’s NHL best bets

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Saturday’s NHL schedule and odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

Saturday’s NHL player props

Alexis Lafreniere Over 2.5 shots on goal vs. Maple Leafs (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Alexis Lafreniere is finally breaking out this season for the New York Rangers after being drafted first overall in 2020. He has 36 points and 161 shots through 60 games this year after a few up-and-down campaigns to begin his career.

Lafreniere has been aggressive shooting the puck, both overall this season and recently. He’s gone Over 2.5 shots on goal in six straight and 12 of his last 13 games. Overall, he’s hit that mark in 35 of 60 games (58.33%).

Toronto’s main issue this season has been its defense. The Leafs allowed 32 shots in each of their last two games and Lafreniere has a nose for the net.

Tage Thompson Over 3.5 shots on goal vs. Golden Knights (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We’re going back to the Tage Thompson well at home against the Golden Knights. His three shots on goal on Thursday night ended a seven-game streak with at least four SOG, but he did have five shots in total, and that was on the road.

Thompson has 101 shots in 27 home games (3.74 average) as opposed to 79 shots in 23 road games (3.43). He’s still gone Over 3.5 shots on goal in nine of his past 11 games, including five of six at home.

The Golden Knights’ depth has taken a hit, and they’ve allowed a lot of shots as of late. Vegas is averaging 35.4 shots against per game in its last five contests.

Thompson has gone Over 3.5 shots in 52% of his games this season so even getting plus odds, especially at home, is great value. Take a look at laddering him up to Over 4.5 or Over 5.5 shots on goal, as well.

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Saturday’s NHL game picks

Senators vs. Flyers Over 6.5 (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Senators and Flyers are both in a tough spot after losses on Friday night. Ottawa came back to tie the game after a 3-0 deficit at home against the Coyotes only to lose 5-3. Philadelphia also allowed five goals on Friday night with the Capitals scoring five unanswered goals to win 5-2.

The Flyers used their better goalie on Friday night, leaving AHL call-up Felix Sandstrom to make his season debut tonight. He’s 11-6-2 with a 3.23 GAA and .882 SV% in 20 AHL games this season. On the other side, Anton Forsberg got the unexpected start on Friday night with Joonas Korpisalo being a late scratch due to an illness.

Either way, the Senators have allowed 15 goals in their last three games with the Flyers going Over 6.5 in three straight contests, as well. This should be a back-and-forth high-scoring game in Philadelphia.

Bruins ML vs. Islanders (-125 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The Bruins have hit a bit of a rough patch in recent weeks with their lack of depth catching up with them. Boston is 4-3-5 since the All-Star break but broke a three-game losing streak with a win against the Golden Knights on Thursday night.

Boston still maintains a 35-12-14 record on the season, including 16-5-9 at home. Meanwhile, the Islanders have been buoyed by the loser point with their 25-20-14 record.

The Isles are only 13-8-9 at home and have lost four straight at UBS Arena, plus the loss at MetLife Stadium as the “home” team.

The Bruins are simply the better team than the Isles, both this season (50.01% vs. 49.17% xGF) and in the last 10 games (50.77% vs. 48.89% xGF). Boston should be a bigger favorite than -125 on Long Island.

NHL best bets made Saturday at 12:50 a.m. ET.

Here are our best NHL betting sites:

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Written By:
Ryan Gilbert
Ryan Gilbert is a contributing writer at SportsbookReview.com, covering hockey and baseball. He is the lead NHL writer and editor at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, where he also co-hosts the Hockey Gambling Podcast. Ryan covers the Philadelphia Flyers for Broad Street Hockey and co-founded Sons of Penn. His past stops include NBC Sports Regional Networks and NHL.com.