The Stanley Cup Final shifts from Sin City to Sunrise, and the Florida Panthers are looking to defeat the Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday and avoid a 0-3 series deficit. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker shares his Panthers vs. Golden Knights picks and predictions based on the NHL odds from our best sports betting apps.
Will the Florida Panthers benefit from some home improvement in Game 3?
The underdog Cats have now lost consecutive games for the first time since Round 1 against the Boston Bruins, and Florida is staring an 0-3 series deficit directly in the eye.
Florida has been outscored 12-4. No. 1 netminder Sergei Bobrovsky has stopped just 38 of 46 shots, and his Conn Smythe Trophy odds have skyrocketed. Add the fact that star winger Matthew Tkachuk scored a single goal through two games while racking up 36 PIM, and it’s been a disastrous start for the Panthers.
The Vegas Golden Knights took a 2-0 lead with Monday’s 7-2 drubbing and are massive favorites in the Stanley Cup odds.
I’m anticipating Game 3 between the Golden Knights and Panthers to be the closest of the series, with statistical correction taking a toll on Vegas' offense and Bobrovsky turning away a few more shots.
However, it still won't be enough for Florida.
Here is our best Golden Knights vs. Panthers prediction for Thursday (odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Golden Knights vs. Panthers Game 3 pick
Moneyline: Golden Knights (+105 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
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After crunching the numbers, I was moderately surprised to land on the Vegas moneyline because Florida owns the better Corsi For percentage and goals for percentage at five-on-five during the series, which is also the case when adjusted for score and venue.
Additionally, I added a home-ice edge for Florida, although I’m not sure it’s even warranted. The Panthers are just 4-3 at FLA Arena during the postseason, while Vegas is a sizzling 6-2 on the highway.
The Golden Knights' team shooting percentage at five-on-five was 19.1% through the first two games of the series, and I’m anticipating Bobrovsky to improve on his .826 save percentage during the Final.
Still, even with regression kicking in, I’m not convinced the talent or scoring gaps are closed in Game 3. The numbers told the same story, as I've got the Vegas moneyline priced at -109.
Florida won 11 of 12 games despite being largely outplayed, and now they’re matched up against a cerebral juggernaut that’s more skilled, deeper, incredibly disciplined, and well-coached.
Golden Knights vs. Panthers Game 3 best odds
|Vegas moneyline||Vegas moneyline||Vegas moneyline||Vegas moneyline||Vegas moneyline|
The prices for the Vegas moneyline are tight across our best sportsbooks. Additionally, I don’t have a strong feel for whether there will be future line movement heading into Thursday’s puck drop.
I would recommend taking advantage of the +105 available through PointsBet, though. There’s potential for the price to drop, and it’s a fair price considering Pinnacle is listing the Vegas moneyline at +104, and my number is -109.
For comparison, the +105 price presents a positive expected value of 7% over my -109 odds.
Golden Knights vs. Panthers Game 3 odds
Golden Knights vs. Panthers odds analysis
|Golden Knights moneyline||+100||+102||+100||+100||+105 🔥|
|Panthers moneyline||-120||-122||-120||-130 ❄️||-125|
|Golden Knights +1.5||-250||-245 🔥||-250||-260||-261 ❄️|
|Panthers -1.5||+210||+198 ❄️||+200||+210||+210|
There will likely be adjustments to all these prices leading into Thursday’s puck drop, but I wouldn’t expect any significant line movement. The highlighted odds are also quite consistent across our best live betting sites. Prospective bettors will just want to take advantage of the edges available and steer clear of the industry-low odds.
|Over||6.0 (-110)||5.5 (-140)||6.0 (-110)||6.0 (-105)||6.0 (-105)|
|Under||6.0 (-110)||5.5 (+144)||6.0 (-110)||6.0 (-125)||6.0 (-115)|
After the total went Over the 5.5 number in consecutive games, it’s now listed a 6.0 through four of our five best sports betting sites. FanDuel is on an island with a 5.5 total, but note the hefty vig saddling the Over.
Panthers vs. Golden Knights Game 3 info
- Date: Thursday, June 8, 8 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT, Sportsnet
- Location: FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, FL
Golden Knights vs. Panthers pick made 6/7/2023 at 8:55 a.m. ET.
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