Capitals vs. Stars Picks, Predictions: Dallas Looks to Ride Oettinger
The Washington Capitals head to Dallas to extend their win streak to three, while the Stars look to get right at home after dropping their last two games. Here are our picks for Thursday night’s game between the Capitals and the Stars.
After losing their last two games on the road to the Ottawa Senators and Boston Bruins, the Stars will be happy to be back at home, ready to take on a 4-3-0 Capitals team.
The Capitals' offense has looked good in their first seven games, but their defense has been their downfall in those three losses.
Here are my NHL picks and predictions for Thursday night’s game between the Capitals and Stars (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 scale).
Check out Thursday's NHL best bets and our top shot-prop picks.
Capitals vs. Stars Game Info
Date/Time: Thursday Oct. 27, 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC Sports Washington, Bally Sports Southwest
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Capitals vs. Stars Odds
Capitals vs. Stars Odds Analysis
The Stars are the moneyline favorites, listed at -120 at all major sportsbooks. The consensus total is set at 6.
Both cash and tickets have come in favor of the Stars, with 63% of the cash and 76% of tickets. Bettors are split on the total with 56% of the tickets on the Over accounting for just 21% of the handle.
Capitals vs. Stars Picks
- Moneyline: Stars (-120 via BetMGM)
- Over/Under: Under 6 (-110 via FanDuel)
- Prop: Jake Oettinger Over 28.5 saves (-105 via DraftKings)
Capitals vs. Stars ML Pick
Stars (-120) ★★★
Dallas is 2-0 on home ice so far this year and has the better goaltender in this matchup. Prior to the loss to the Bruins on Tuesday night where Jake Oettinger allowed two goals on 28 shots, he was 4-0 on the season and still hasn’t allowed more than two goals in an outing. He has the best goals against average in the league at the moment with a 1.41 rate. In each of his first three starts of the season, he allowed just a single goal.
The Capitals' offense has looked good while averaging 3.57 goals per game. That group is led by the likes of Alex Ovechkin, Conor Sheary, and Evgeny Kuznetsov, but even with a high-scoring and high-shooting output, their defense hasn’t done them any favors. Capitals goaltender Darcy Kuemper has also struggled through five outings.
The Capitals have allowed an average of 3.43 goals per game. Kuemper is 3-2-0 with a 3.04 GAA and .899 SV%. While he isn't getting much help from the defensive system, Kuemper’s going to need to clean it up, especially with Oettinger on the other end. His oppenent isn’t going to allow for much offensive support.
I’m taking the Stars on their home ice.
Capitals vs. Stars O/U Pick
Under 6 (-110) ★★
Speaking of close calls, all sportsbooks have the Over/Under for this matchup at -110 on both sides. A six-goal total isn’t a ton, but when you have one goaltender who hasn’t allowed more than two goals in five starts and another who’s allowed three or more goals in four of his five starts, this one’s a coin toss.
Though the Capitals hit the Over in in each of their last four games, the Under hit in four of Oettinger's five starts. Especially seeing as they’re back at home and looking to get right after two losses in a row, I’ll take the Under to the benefit of the Stars.
Capitals vs. Stars Prop Pick
Oettinger Over 28.5 saves (-105) ★★★★
Sticking with the common theme of strong goaltending in Dallas, Oettinger making more than 28.5 saves seems like a lock. He’s made less than 29 saves in only two of his five outings, and given the high-volume shooting he’s likely going to see from Washington, I’d take this prop.
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Capitals-Stars picks made 10/27/2022 at 1:09 p.m. ET.
