🏒 Canadiens vs. Lightning Prediction & Odds: (Game 5) NHL Picks Today (April 29)

The Tampa Bay Lightning fought back in Game 4 to level their First Round series against the Montreal Canadiens. Now, the Lightning return to home ice for a critical Game 5 against their Atlantic Division rival. 

Oddsmakers are bullish on the Lightning, laying -170 odds on their moneyline. The total sits at 5.5, indicative of the low-scoring games we've seen play out in this series, while all four matchups have gone to overtime. Tonight's puck drop is set for 7 p.m. ET from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa (ESPN2). 

My Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction includes a moneyline pick, a total, and a correct score prediction at +1300 odds. 

🏒 Canadiens vs. Lightning picks & odds today: April 29

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🏆 Who will win Canadiens vs. Lightning?

 Game 4 feels like it transferred the momentum in this series back to the Lightning. Tampa Bay returns home, where they are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games played. 

Andrei Vasilevskiy is among the league's best goaltenders, which justifies the expensive price on the Lightning's moneyline at -170 odds. Montreal ranks 16th in goals against this season, compared to the Lightning ranking 3rd in this metric. 

This feels like a game where we see the Lightning strike early and stave off the Canadiens offense. Tampa Bay may score four goals for the first time in this series tonight. 

Score prediction: Lightning 4, Canadiens 1 (+1300)

💰 Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction & best bet

Under 5.5 (+100)

The under has been printing money in this Atlantic Division playoff series. After a 4-3 burst in Game 1 that saw the Canadiens play spoiler on the road, the last three matchups have all settled 3-2 in overtime. 

We've already talked about Vasilevskiy's dominance in the crease. Jakub Dobes deserves credit for the Canadiens, too. He's posted 20+ saves in three of his four starts against the Lightning. 

This profiles as another gritty matchup tonight. Go to bet365 to get even odds (+100) on under 5.5 total goals. 

🔥 Best Canadiens vs. Lightning player prop bet

Juraj Slafkovsky Under 0.5 points (+114)

Juraj Slafkovsky has been great for the Canadiens' offense this season. However, the former No. 1 overall pick has been held in check, failing to record a point in three straight games since his Game 1 hat trick.

While we know Slafkovsky has plenty of talent, the Lightning defense has clearly found a way to contain him in the offensive zone. Despite skating on the first attack line and primary powerplay unit, Slafkovsky has registered five shots on goal without a point in Games 2-4. 

Vasilevskiy is a tough assignment for any player in the league. Let's fade Slafkovsky and bet on him to finish with under 0.5 points at +114 odds on DraftKings. 

🚀 Canadiens vs. Lightning same-game parlay

My Canadiens vs. Lightning same-game parlay includes under 5.5 total goals and Juraj Slafkovsky to go under his total points prop. The Canadiens' forward has been ice-cold since Game 1, while we've seen under 5.5 total goals settle as a win in three straight games. 

Head over to DraftKings and place one unit on this two-leg Canadiens vs. Lightning same-game parlay at +328 odds. 

💵 My betting record for NHL picks

All NHL picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since April 1.

💡 How I'm betting Canadiens vs. Lightning

Follow all of our NHL analysis and expert predictions this season.

For tonight's pivotal Game 5 tilt between the Canadiens vs. Lightning, I'm dropping four units. Tampa Bay is a heavy betting favorite on home ice, where they've been good in recent outings. 

Montreal has played above expectation. However, the Lightning have more experience and overall talent at key positions. That's why I'm betting on the Lightning moneyline, while taking under 5.5 total goals to be scored in this defensive playoff series. 

Finally, I'm going to fade Juraj Slafkovsky. He was the star for Montreal in Game 1, but since that three-goal performance, he's been shut down, so I'm fading him in the player prop market. 

📊 Live Canadiens vs. Lightning odds: Game 5

Since opening lines came out for Game 5, line movement has gone in the Canadiens direction. The Lightning have dropped from -177 odds to -170 odds in the moneyline betting market, while the goal total has stayed flat at 5.5. 

With 67 percent of public bets on the Lightning moneyline, there are only 24 percent of wagers on Tampa Bay to cover -1.5. This is likely due to Montreal covering +1.5 in all four games played in this series. 

Under 5.5 is only drawing 32 percent of bets. The majority of wagers are still on over 5.5 total goals heading into Game 5. 

📈 Canadiens vs. Lightning betting trends

🚑 Canadiens vs. Lightning injuries

📺 How to watch Canadiens vs. Lightning GAME 5

• Date: Wednesday, April 29
• Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, Fla.)
• TV: ESPN2