🏆 Calder Trophy Odds 2026: Why Matthew Schaefer Should Be Anointed Rookie of the Year Now
Seeing Matthew Schaefer sit imperiously on top of the Calder Trophy odds leaderboard is hardly breaking news. He's been in the No. 1 spot, receiving the shortest Calder Trophy odds, since the infancy of the 2025-26 NHL season.
And here's another not-so-hot take: He will, eventually, be named rookie of the year. Considering his unrivaled dominance, the decision-makers might as well hand the award to the 18-year-old now. It would be perfect timing for Canadians, who could use some cheering up.
But what has made his rookie season so much better than all the other first-year players?
🏆 Why Matthew Schaefer will win Calder Trophy
Records, records, and more records. And I'm not talking about records you place delicately on a turntable. I'm referring to the teenage phenom who is setting more records than AI and its machine learning algorithms.
He erupted out of the starting gate, becoming the fourth 18-year-old to score at least a point in his first six games, joining Wayne Gretzky (1979-80 with the Edmonton Oilers), Alexandre Daigle (1993-94 with the Ottawa Senators) and Sidney Crosby (2005-06 with the Pittsburgh Penguins).
Feast your eyes on some of Schaefer's accomplishments in his first 58 games as a pro.
Schaefer's rookie records
| Record | Age |
|---|---|
| Youngest defenseman to play an NHL game | 18 years, 34 days |
| Youngest defenseman with a point in NHL debut | 18 years, 34 days |
| First Islanders teenager to reach 27 minutes of ice time in a game (27:40 against Flyers) | 18 years, 49 days |
| Youngest defenseman to have a multi-goal game | 18 years, 58 days |
| 2nd-fastest 18-year-old defenseman to 15 points (Phil Housley) | 18 years, 70 days |
| Youngest player to score an overtime goal | 18 years and 70 days |
| Third-youngest player to score in consecutive games (Jordan Staal, Pierre Turgeon) | 18 years, 70 days |
| Youngest defenseman to reach 25-point mark | 18 years, 116 days |
| Youngest defenseman to score 10 goals | 18 years and 118 days |
💡 Soon-to-be broken records?
- Housley set the record for goals by an 18-year-old defenseman, with 19. Schaefer has 16.
- Defensemen have never won consecutive Calder Trophies since the league's expansion era (1967-68). With Lane Hutson winning last season and Schaefer the probable winner, that's set to change.
Schaefer's dominance goes beyond setting records
The below stats pertain to rookies
- Leads all rookies in ice time, averaging 24:05 per game. That's 3:51 more than second-place Yan Kuznetsov (Flames)
- Leads Islanders in ice time, 3:02 more than Ryan Pulock
- Third in rookie goals (16), two behind Beckett Sennecke (Ducks) and Oliver Kapanen (Canadiens)
- Fourth in points per game (0.67)
- Most power-play goals (6)
- Most power-play points (14)
- Most game-winning goals (4)
- Most shots (127)
🏆 Calder Trophy odds 2026
The Calder Trophy odds are updated in real time.
🥇 Does anyone else have a chance of winning Calder Trophy?
Recently, I wrote a piece focusing on whether anyone can prevent Schaefer from winning rookie of the year. There are two such candidates, the Montreal Canadiens Ivan Demidov and the Anaheim Ducks' Sennecke.
Demidov, trading at +950, was the pre-season Calder Trophy odds favorite. He leads rookies in points (46), assists (34), and points per game (.81)
Sennecke, trading at +1000, has enjoyed a terrific rookie campaign and is one of the primary reasons the Ducks are in a playoff spot. As far as the Ducks go, only Cutter Gauthier, with 49 points, has more points than Sennecke's 44.
The 20-year-old is tied for first in goals among rookies (18), has the second-most points (2 behind Demidov), and the second-most points per game (0.79).
While Demidov and Sennecke deserve recognition and heaping praise, Schaefer stands alone. The Islanders' blue-liner is trading at -850. Those odds imply an 89.47% win probability.
Aside from the aforementioned trio, no other rookie at the best sports betting sites has a win probability higher than 0.66%.
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