Will Mike Tomlin be Fired? Next Head Coach Fired Odds at Prediction Markets

The Pittsburgh Steelers barely made the playoffs, and now there's a lingering question hanging over tonight's game: Will Mike Tomlin be fired?

The Steelers won their division and the right to host a playoff game, though they seem overmatched tonight against the Houston Texans in the wild-card round. Has their head coach already done enough to save himself? Or will talk of his demise pick up again if the Steelers fall?

🏗️ Will Mike Tomlin be fired?

The prediction market at Polymarket is offering a gauge for whether we could see the last of Tomlin on the Steelers' sideline soon. It lists two interim head coaches with little chance of being retained at the top, and then Tomlin follows.

Mike Kafka being given even a 15% chance to stay with the New York Giants after being their interim head coach feels more than generous, but that's a head-scratcher for another time.

Tomlin stands alone among the tenured head coaches in a market that stipulates that for "yes" to hit the coach in question must be fired before Feb. 28 at midnight. However, his chances to be sent packing are dropping quickly while falling by 18% recently.

😬 What's at stake tonight for Tomlin?

Football isn't fair sometimes. Yes, Tomlin's fate isn't solely tied to one game. But the outcome of a single contest could have at least some sway in his short-term future.

The Steelers needed a shanked field goal to win the AFC North in Week 18 and narrowly squeaked into the playoffs. Now they face a ferocious Houston Texans defense with a borderline immobile Aaron Rodgers possibly playing his last game. The Texans rank sixth against the pass (183.5 yards allowed per game), and they allowed the second-fewest regular-season points per outing (17.4).

It's easy to see why our Texans vs. Steelers prediction sides with Houston to cover -3, even on the road.

Somehow rising above all that to earn an upset win would bolster spirits even more in Pittsburgh after fans were chanting for Tomlin's ouster not long ago. But although the sting of losing would certainly go deep, it's quite possible Tomlin stays on regardless, and that winning the division, albeit barely, and getting to the playoffs was enough to save him.

That's surely influencing a prediction market that seems increasingly confident Tomlin stays for now. As are insider reports, including ESPN's Adam Schefter recently reporting the "feeling is he'll be back in Pittsburgh for at least another year."

📋 What's Mike Tomlin's contract situation?

Teams generally like to avoid a lame-duck situation with a head coach. It brings on too much uncertainty while heading into a season, and even the offseason as roster decisions are made.

But that's what the Steelers potentially face with Tomlin. And even if they decide to keep him around, the tough calls don't end with the 53-year-old there in the short term.

Tomlin holds two years left on his current contract. However, the 2027 season is a team option, and the Steelers must decide whether they want to pick it up by March 1, also according to Schefter. That date, and the 2027 season, are the real hot spots for Tomlin and the Steelers.

🏈 Prediction: Tomlin returns for next season

The Steelers have had only three head coaches since 1969, and they haven't fired one since 1968. 

This isn't a team that acts rashly or quickly, and it seems unlikely Tomlin would be given a prompt dismissal after this season, especially since he's held the job since 2007. His tenure includes a Super Bowl championship back in 2008, and now six division titles. He's also never posted a losing record, which is just as remarkable considering the constant change at quarterback in recent campaigns.

Tomlin resurrected a floundering team this season, with the Steelers winning four of their last five games to make the playoffs. There's plenty of work to do, especially on defense after the Steelers sat fourth-last in passing yards allowed per game (243.9).

But he's likely safe for now even after a loss tonight, with the uncertainty possibly setting in more a year from now.