Mike Tomlin Steps Down as Steelers Coach: Prediction Markets & Odds

Earlier this week, we broke down the chances that Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin would be fired. In the end, he took matters into his own hands.

The longtime coach and former Super Bowl champion resigned on Tuesday, ending a 19-year run with the franchise that included one championship, eight AFC North division titles, and zero losing seasons in nearly two decades at the helm.

While the news is shocking on the surface, it's not exactly a surprise for those who were tracking the prediction markets ahead of Tuesday's news. Here's a look at what we wrote earlier this week ahead of the league-altering move in Pittsburgh:

🏗️ Will Mike Tomlin be fired?

Editor's note: The following was written before Tuesday's news that Tomlin will step down as the Steelers' head coach and will not return for the 2026 season.

The prediction market at Polymarket is offering a gauge for whether we could see the last of Tomlin on the Steelers' sideline soon. It lists two interim head coaches with little chance of being retained at the top, and then Tomlin follows. While Nick Sirianni and Matt LaFleur have been listed as options, too, both have a $0 volume in shares purchased.

Here's a look at the four coaches with at least $10,000 in volume at Polymarket:

Mike Kafka being given even an 11% chance to stay with the New York Giants after being their interim head coach feels more than generous, but that's a head-scratcher for another time.

Tomlin stands alone among the tenured head coaches in a market that stipulates that for "yes" to hit the coach in question must be fired before Feb. 28 at midnight. His likelihood to be sent packing had dropped recently but shot up to 46% after the Steelers' playoff loss to the Texans on the final day of NFL Wild Card Weekend.

😬 What did this season mean to Tomlin?

Tomlin's fate won't be tied to the outcome of just last night's game. 

Through 19 seasons at the helm, Tomlin hasn't produced a single losing season. This year, while they just squeaked into the postseason, was their third straight finishing at 10-7. It was also the third straight that they failed to get past the Wild Card Round.

So the question becomes: does this team need a new face on the sidelines to take the next step? Things certainly need to change, but that can come from many different places. Speculation has already ramped up about whether quarterback Aaron Rodgers might retire. Would a new face under center be enough?

While an upset win would have helped Tomlin's likelihood of staving off the outside noise and staying in Pittsburgh another year, it's quite possible Tomlin stays on regardless and that winning the division, albeit barely, and getting to the playoffs was enough to save him.

That's surely influencing a prediction market that seems increasingly confident Tomlin stays for now. As are insider reports, including ESPN's Adam Schefter recently reporting the "feeling is he'll be back in Pittsburgh for at least another year."

📋 What's Mike Tomlin's contract situation?

Teams generally like to avoid a lame-duck situation with a head coach. It brings on too much uncertainty while heading into a season, and even the offseason as roster decisions are made.

But that's what the Steelers potentially face with Tomlin. And even if they decide to keep him around, the tough calls don't end with the 53-year-old there in the short term.

Tomlin holds two years left on his current contract. However, the 2027 season is a team option, and the Steelers must decide whether they want to pick it up by March 1, also according to Schefter. That date, and the 2027 season, are the real hot spots for Tomlin and the Steelers.