Who Will be First NFL Head Coach Fired Prediction Market | Is Pete Carroll Out in Vegas?

With Black Monday lurking, it's time to break down which NFL head coach will be fired first - with the help of the Kalshi prediction market, of course. 

Pete Carroll has a 62% chance to get shown the door after Las Vegas fell to 2-14 this season under the 74-year-old. Kevin Stefanski of the Cleveland Browns (33%) is right behind him, but winning back-to-back games to close the season might have saved his job.

❌ Who will be the next coach out in NFL?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

Kalshi has this as a two-man race between Pete Carroll and Kevin Stefanski - who have both taken the majority of the $294,107 volume currently being traded in this prediction market.

It couldn't have gone any worse in Las Vegas this season, as the Raiders ranked dead-last in total offense (their 14 points per game were the third-worst in team history) en route to the first overall draft pick in 2026.

Carroll and the coaching staff should all be fired for how they assembled one of the worst offensive lines in football after investing a first-round pick (sixth overall) on Ashton Jeanty. And don't get me started on the Maxx Crosby saga, whose relationship with the staff is currently strained following the announcement that they'd be sitting him for the final week of the season.

All of this happening under Carroll, who may have already lost the locker room in his first year in Las Vegas. Too many question marks and not enough answers (or points) for the Raiders head coach to keep his job and live out the rest of his three-year contract.

🔮 My prediction for next coach fired

With reports circling that he's likely out - whether that be through retirement or a firing - my best investment would lie in Carroll, who, with one game left to play, has already tied the franchise record for most losses in a season. I'd price this one closer to 70% than the 62% chance the Kalshi prediction market is giving you. 

The Raiders are reportedly casting a wide net in their head coach search, which may include Tom Brady. Carroll was just the wrong fit for this Raiders team, and he'll likely be out as a result. Invest in the "yes" market (65 cents) while you can.